ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#261 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Do you guys think this system has enough time to reach hurricane status, or just a minimal to moderate tropical storm? I know its all conjecture at this point, but I value many of your opinions. My daughter is due to have her baby this week here in P'cola, sure don't look forward to driving to the hospital during a hurricane lol


anything is possible and it all depends on how much the upper environment evolves in a more conducive way for the system.. it technically had plenty of time to become a hurricane once it becomes well defined..


I would say if it stays down there into Wed it will get under much better UL conditions and there would be a possibility of it attaining H Status IMO.
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Re: Re:

#262 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:11 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Do you guys think this system has enough time to reach hurricane status, or just a minimal to moderate tropical storm? I know its all conjecture at this point, but I value many of your opinions. My daughter is due to have her baby this week here in P'cola, sure don't look forward to driving to the hospital during a hurricane lol


anything is possible and it all depends on how much the upper environment evolves in a more conducive way for the system.. it technically had plenty of time to become a hurricane once it becomes well defined..


I would say if it stays down there into Wed it will get under much better UL conditions and there would be a possibility of it attaining H Status IMO.


right the GFDL which is fairly slow brings it to a hurricane..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#263 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:11 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I agree, you can see a rotation on sat. imagery just under the northern edge of the convection and it looks like on radar that convection is coming together in that same spot.


Oh yeah thats about where I'd place it to tighten up as well, though its a bit harder to tell whats going on down there now we've lost Vis imagery. At least the system is close to radar.
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#264 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:12 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#265 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:13 pm

MGC wrote:Everyting will depend on the track and strengh of the ULL. Personally, I hope the ULL holds together and keeps a good bit of shear over the system. If shear does lessen than 94L could take off in a hurry. It looks to me that the shear will stay up and keep a hold on the system. There is a chance of a TC forming but I believe it will remain weak if one does form.......MGC



According to the GFS 300mb vorticity the ULL moves westward across the northern Gulf to a position just south of LA in 36hrs and is weakening. If this surface low sits down in the general area it is now come 48hrs I think it gets under a ridge and anything goes after that. Alot will depend on how long or how slow this low moves over the next day IMO.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation


Corrected, meant 48 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#266 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:22 pm

Aric,finnally the floater :)

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#267 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:Aric,finnally the floater :)

[img][/img]

[img][/img]



yep hehe.. I just posted it.. :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#268 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Aric,finnally the floater :)

[img][/img]

[img][/img]



yep hehe.. I just posted it.. :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :D


Oh ok,I didnt see your post.
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Re:

#269 Postby lrak » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:29 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:floater is finally up.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html



I was about to call someone... :)

After looking at all the floaters the ULL seems to be tracking nw?
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#270 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:38 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: Re:

#271 Postby gboudx » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:46 pm

lrak wrote:After looking at all the floaters the ULL seems to be tracking nw?


Looks due west(maybe hair north) on the floater to me.
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#272 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:47 pm

Instead of tracking storms, we should start tracking ULL. They seems to be very abundant every year. Maybe do like Europe, that Highs and Lows get names!!

At least it seems 94L will give us something to track.
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#273 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:52 pm

SHIP
Location: 25.2N 83.2W
08/10/2010 0000 UTC
Winds: W (280°) at 20.0 kts
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.0 °F
Water Temperature: 86.2 °F
Visibility: 5 nm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#274 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 09, 2010 8:59 pm

The 25.7N/82.7W position looks good. Not far from that buoy with the 1009.7mb pressure:

Image

PLENTY of obs offshore, so we don't have to do much guessing about what's going on overnight (unless you only have satellite).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#275 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:06 pm

wxman, our local mets are talking about this but taking the conservative approach on our forecast until they see if it will develop or not. Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#276 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:The 25.7N/82.7W position looks good. Not far from that buoy with the 1009.7mb pressure:


PLENTY of obs offshore, so we don't have to do much guessing about what's going on overnight (unless you only have satellite).



A center could just as easily from those obs be about 30-50 miles to the SE of that location you marked within the convection, hard to say. But with the pressures falling you have to wonder if an LLC is taking shape under that convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#277 Postby DTWright » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:12 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote: Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.


Way too early to tell how strong ( if it does develop ) and to really have any idea of a landfall point,
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#278 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:22 pm

I don't mean to sound any alarm with this and this is my opinion and not anything official and you should get official information for all your information!

But, the CMC, the NAM and some other models are slowing landfall way down with the NAM on Friday and the CMC now showing a Saturday landfall. If this turns out to be the case the ULL will be out of the picture and a fairly substantial ridge taking its place, with the very warm SST's and a ridge overhead we could be dealing with something more substantial. Lets hope a Wed or early Thur landfall takes place otherwise I think we are dealing with a borderline Hurricane! Just my opinion, but remove the ULL and replace it with a ridge in August over a tropical low in the Gulf spells trouble!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#279 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:22 pm

DTWright wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote: Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.


Way too early to tell how strong ( if it does develop ) and to really have any idea of a landfall point,


I realize it is to early to know for sure how strong it will eventually be and exactly where it will make landfall, just playing the odds and going by what models are currently projecting as well as strength. Most are showing minimal TS with landfall around SE LA. :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#280 Postby DTWright » Mon Aug 09, 2010 9:25 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
DTWright wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote: Assuming this becomes a 40-50mph storm and makes landfall in SE LA what kind of rainfall totals are you seeing for our area(live just south of btr)? Thanks.


Way too early to tell how strong ( if it does develop ) and to really have any idea of a landfall point,


I realize it is to early to know for sure how strong it will eventually be and exactly where it will make landfall, just playing the odds and going by what models are currently projecting as well as strength. Most are showing minimal TS with landfall around SE LA. :roll:


No harm done, and no flame intended in any way. Very well make LF in SELA, but could also make LF in P'Cola. Few days of anxiously watching lie ahead I believe. 8-)
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