Couple of things to keep in mind with Erika/Season 2003

[Steve]

Erika - except for the fact she's hauling right now, I think the TPC is underplaying intensity potential. I saw this coming from the weekend and noted yesterday that I'd be much more concerned if I was in Southern Texas than if I was in South Florida. One thing to consider is the JB rule of storms making landfall perpendicularly to the TX coast often wrap up considerably just prior to landfall. I want one more day to watch the storm before making landfall and intensity call. The way I've been leaning for the last few days was once she got cranking, time was the only thing to stop her. I think Cat-1 is almost a foregone conclusion, but I wouldn't rule out 100-115 sustained. And as I've said the last few days, I'm also leaning South Texas more than anything else - probably between South Padre/Port Isabel and Corpus Christi. High pressure is firmly entrenched in South LA. Rarely does a storm ride 26 where we might not even get a shower out of it (probably see some gusty NE winds as it passes south).

And on the 2003 Season so far - here's a new anomaly to chew on. Independent Weather posted the 60 year trend of Gulf seasons after years where there were 6 or more named storms. In none of the following years were there any more than 2 named storms in the Gulf. Here's a toast to another freaky trend for 2003. And I'm sure we'll see at least 2 more storms in the Gulf before late October (if not more). Another thing to consider is the tracks of all the West Pac storms this year. There have only been one or two recurvatures without landfalls. Vietnam, China, Japan, Philipines et al have felt the wrath of the WPAC season. There's no direct link, but the paterns remain such that the Gulf and SE US are in danger from here on out.

Stay tuned!

Steve

[Guest]

Welll - after September 9th - the Texas coastline of the GOM is usually out of the woods for any storms - thats because of approaching coldfronts. But then isn't there always something over us - under us - approaching us when the tropical storms head this way. It never fails.

Well as I said earlier - bring on the COLDFRONTS.

Patricia

[Stormsfury]

We've already established yet another record. This is the 3rd GOM storm after 6 in the previous year.

[Anonymous]

Actually, the record number of GOM storms after a season with 6 GOM storms (as we saw last year) is 3, not 2. But out of several seasons, the mode is by far 2.

So technically, we'll need one more GOM storm to break the record...pretty much likely that we will. And yes, TWW and I DID forecast 2-3 Gulf storms this year, which was based largely on climatology. HEH...climatology schimatology.

[Lindaloo]

We've already established yet another record. This is the 3rd GOM storm after 6 in the previous year.

this is also the first one that has ever formed where it did.

[Stormsfury]

HEH...climatology schimatology

With 2003 ... 100000% agree.

[Steve]

My bad 'Cane. There was that one year with 3.

Steve

[Steve H.]

Ticka I Don't see any cold front coming your way. I'd start praying for one though. Erika's crankin' :o Hope you have supplies on hand.