ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[chzzdekr81]

I'm thinking 50-60% next update. TD tomorrow.

[coreyl]

It looks like the convection is trying to wrap around on its eastern side? Anybody seeing the same thing?

[chzzdekr81]

Can't believe I'm saying this but I think this will become Danielle rather than Earl. The disturbance in the Atlantic poofed...

I agree that this should become Danielle, not Earl, but 93L didn't poof... Give it a few more days.

[ROCK]

I'm thinking 50-60% next update. TD tomorrow.

I think it will go TD tomorrow then TS...more than that guidance doesn think so but we all know models are not that great with intensity....

[LSU2001]

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I am a complete novice at reading the tea leaves when looking at these developing systems but looking back at the earlier sat images and radar images it appears to me that the convection is either pulling the center towards it or the center is building convection over it. The system appears to be developing some banding and the moisture envelope appears to be expanding to the northwest a bit. With all of this said, I think this thing will continue to get better organized and will be classified a TD either early tomorrow morning or by noon at the latest. If this trend continues I see no reason this cannot become Danielle by tomorrow evening sometime.

What worries me is that the slower progression of the storm as progged by the models could lead to improved UL synoptics and thus set the stage for a stronger storm than is currently forecast. Living on the South Louisiana Coast, this thing has my full attention. I don't want to wake up Wed. morning to a strong TS or Minimal hurricane still several days from landfall. Not as hot as the gulf has got to be due to the record heat we have been having.
Tim

[chzzdekr81]

50%
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARDS ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ANY TIME. THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA IS INCREASING AND GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH
UPPER-AIR...DOPPLER RADAR...AND SATELLITE INFORMATION...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ivanhater]

NVM..50 percent

[HouTXmetro]

convection trying to deepen and consolidate. how much time does thing have over water. Looks like it's trying to ramp up tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

convection trying to deepen and consolidate. how much time does thing have over water. Looks like it's trying to ramp up tonight.

A few days.. 3-4

[TwisterFanatic]

convection trying to deepen and consolidate. how much time does thing have over water. Looks like it's trying to ramp up tonight.

Looking at the steering currents its not going anywhere anytime soon...

[Sanibel]

Here we go. Weak burst and consolidation of center. Happening faster than I expected. Gulf set it off.

[HouTXmetro]

Yeah, agreed...according to the radar loop it'ever so slowly moving SW with convectional almost appearing to close off a distinct center.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[ROCK]

hard to tell where a center is on radar....Key West area? reporting west wind then south wind...

[supercane]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
<snip>

A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED AS A
1010 MB LOW OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W THEN NW ALONG 25N86W TO 27N89W.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATES A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS WELL AS ONGOING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 81W-85W. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW
NEAR 5-10 KT.

[ROCK]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
<snip>

A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED AS A
1010 MB LOW OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N83W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W THEN NW ALONG 25N86W TO 27N89W.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATES A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS WELL AS ONGOING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 81W-85W. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW
NEAR 5-10 KT.

what jumps out at me on this is 5-10knts.....that snail pace... the longer it takes to get its act together the more likely the ridge builds back in after the trof passes....

[LaBreeze]

what jumps out at me on this is 5-10knts.....that snail pace... the longer it takes to get its act together the more likely the ridge builds back in after the trof passes....[/quote]

And this would mean a more westerly movement?

[supercane]

6Z position update from ATCF shows 94L quasi-stationary:

AL, 94, 2010081006, , BEST, 0, 254N, 827W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 94, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 256N, 826W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[ROCK]

also might add, center relos are a possibility....you noticed that the convection is mostly south...makes sense for a LLC to migrate to the lowest pressure with no steerring currently out there....very plausible...

[supercane]

First Dvorak classification from SSD is 1.0

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/0545 UTC 25.2N 82.6W T1.0/1.0 94L

[ROCK]

what jumps out at me on this is 5-10knts.....that snail pace... the longer it takes to get its act together the more likely the ridge builds back in after the trof passes....

And this would mean a more westerly movement?[/quote] possibly......but it is not going anywhere attm...gaining time now to organize....timing is everything...