EPAC: EX INVEST 90E

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008101308
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010081012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902010
EP, 90, 2010081012, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1078W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[pepeavilenho]

[KWT]

I did notice that convection this morning but I'm guessing its going to have the exact same problem as Estelle has had in the last few days.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Not much to see

556
WHXX01 KMIA 101317
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1317 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902010) 20100810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100810 1200 100811 0000 100811 1200 100812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 107.8W 18.4N 108.9W 18.6N 110.4W 18.8N 111.9W
BAMD 17.8N 107.8W 18.7N 110.5W 19.5N 113.4W 20.2N 116.1W
BAMM 17.8N 107.8W 18.7N 109.8W 19.2N 112.0W 19.5N 114.4W
LBAR 17.8N 107.8W 18.3N 109.3W 19.1N 111.0W 19.9N 112.9W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 23KTS 19KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 23KTS 19KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100812 1200 100813 1200 100814 1200 100815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 113.5W 17.6N 116.7W 16.3N 118.9W 15.3N 119.9W
BAMD 20.6N 118.5W 21.5N 122.7W 22.2N 126.5W 23.1N 130.9W
BAMM 19.3N 116.5W 18.7N 120.2W 17.7N 123.1W 16.9N 126.1W
LBAR 20.5N 114.8W 21.2N 118.8W 22.0N 122.8W 23.4N 127.2W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 107.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 107.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 107.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Just the fact that it's so close to Estelle shouldn't allow for much development

[Chacor]

The Estelle discs have been mentioning models forecasting some Fujiwhara interaction between this and what will be Estelle's remnants.

[KWT]

Yeah and I think that would probably happen given the forecast of Estelle...I doubt this one develops though to be honest...

[supercane]

Looks to have the same unfavorable easterly shear that affected Estelle, meaning that 90E will have an uphill battle. Map made in UW-CIMSS TCTrak with sat, obs, shear overlay:

[HURAKAN]

18z

EP, 90, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1083W, 20, 1007, DB

[Epsilon_Fan]

trying to follow the circulation of Estelle is tough with all of the higher clouds but did this low "eat" Estelle? It looks like the Estelle circulation has spun into this larger circulation and some convection has blown up near the second low.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep902010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008111150
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010081012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902010
EP, 90, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1074W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010080918, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1075W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1076W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010081006, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1077W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010081012, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1079W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 100, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
EP, 90, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1083W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 90, 2010081100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1089W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 90, 2010081106, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1096W, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[cycloneye]

Sandy, they reactivated 90E again, but why not go to 92E??

EP, 90, 2010081406, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1100W, 20, 1007, DB

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[KWT]

Looks like 92E is sort of tracking back on itself, not in a very strong steering set-up yet...