Invest 95L should be coming soon from this area.
Wave East of the Windward Islands
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yeah this Area is actually quite impressive this morning.. I saw it last night but wanted to wait and see if it held together. Should become invest later today and on the TWO at 2pm if this develops it could be a huge player in the NE islands and the Bahamas..
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:yeah this Area is actually quite impressive this morning.. I saw it last night but wanted to wait and see if it held together. Should become invest later today and on the TWO at 2pm if this develops it could be a huge player in the NE islands and the Bahamas..
Yes Islanders. Let's wake up! If development continues this could pretty fast become a serious player around the islands. Invest by 2pm.
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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
San Juan National Weather Service is looking at that area ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE AUG 10 2010
.............
DISCUSSION....
SO FAR THIS MORNING...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. AS THE SUN RISES...EXPECT LOCALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THICKEST CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND SHOULD
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR 50 WEST...STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE DAY
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Re: Re:
expat2carib wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:yeah this Area is actually quite impressive this morning.. I saw it last night but wanted to wait and see if it held together. Should become invest later today and on the TWO at 2pm if this develops it could be a huge player in the NE islands and the Bahamas..
Yes Islanders. Let's wake up! If development continues this could pretty fast become a serious player around the islands. Invest by 2pm.
Are you talking about the slight turning near 12N/49W? TAFB has this wave generally moving west at a very low latitude into the Caribbean. What guidance suggests this wave is going into the NE Caribbean and Bahamas area??
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Re: Re:
Blown Away wrote:expat2carib wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:yeah this Area is actually quite impressive this morning.. I saw it last night but wanted to wait and see if it held together. Should become invest later today and on the TWO at 2pm if this develops it could be a huge player in the NE islands and the Bahamas..
Yes Islanders. Let's wake up! If development continues this could pretty fast become a serious player around the islands. Invest by 2pm.
Are you talking about the slight turning near 12N/49W? TAFB has this wave generally moving west at a very low latitude into the Caribbean. What guidance suggests this wave is going into the NE Caribbean and Bahamas area??
Steering Currents..
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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
Aric, I looked at the TAFB and they carry this wave just north of due west into the southern Caribbean, not even close to the NE Caribbean/Bahamas?? What am I missing?
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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
Blown Away wrote:Aric, I looked at the TAFB and they carry this wave just north of due west into the southern Caribbean, not even close to the NE Caribbean/Bahamas?? What am I missing?
as a wave yes.... if it begins to develop a WNW track would occur.. which its seems to be trying to do.. over the past several hours it has been heading WNW
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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
Who knows Frank maybe the surprise this season may blow up far closer to home...
True, KWT - both Andrew and Katrina didn't do very much until they were in this region, and per 94L our weather at this moment is overcast with light rain, so you never know...
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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
Aric Dunn wrote:Blown Away wrote:Aric, I looked at the TAFB and they carry this wave just north of due west into the southern Caribbean, not even close to the NE Caribbean/Bahamas?? What am I missing?
as a wave yes.... if it begins to develop a WNW track would occur.. which its seems to be trying to do.. over the past several hours it has been heading WNW
and if you are referring to the turning near 12N/49W I agree it appears to be moving WNW. Let's see if the NHC thinks it's important at 2pm.
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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
728
ABNT20 KNHC 101750
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

ABNT20 KNHC 101750
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT
850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS INCREASED A
LITTLE TODAY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT THAT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST FORMATION. THERE IS STILL A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
expat2carib wrote:Moving west.What's the steering current?
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Re: Wave East of the Winward Islands
I see it as a carib crusier also but if it starts getting deeper a pass thru the northern islands is a good bet.
95L is on the way....
95L is on the way....
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