ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[DTWright]

Does anybody expect a hurricane out of this? Would like to hear your thoughts. Right now I think a moderate to strong T.S is not out of the question since upper-level winds are gradually relaxing and the SSTs are very warm. I don't think any models bring it to hurricane status probably because it is not going to be over water long enough.

Agreed. It isn't 100% tropical, even if it is declared a TC, so it isn't going to intensify rapidly. It is possible...anything is positible...but it simply will probably run out of real estate before it can ramp up. I expect a sloppy 50-60 mph storm somewhere in eastern LA.

There's a ton of warm water in front of this one and with that being the case I would think there is plenty of time for this one to at least become a minimal hurricane if not a little more.

[brunota2003]

Question is, is it worth of a VDM, and how strong are the strongest winds? The lowest pressure was 1009.

1009? Shocked

Hmmm...it was 1010 during the DMAX at 11AM...and I guessed it would lose 2 Mb due to the DMIN which is at about 5PM...so 1009 is right where it should be...and within my .5 MB margin or error. lol...

I figure there are some 20-25 kt winds in the convection to the south...but given how elongated the center is...it is a guess on whether or not Avila will upgrade this. You could make a case for it either way...but I don't think I would given the winds. I still think it needs to shed a couple of more MB's to get the gradient tightened up enough. That will certainly happen overnight or tomorrow.

The lowest on the HDOBs was 1009.1 mb, and for kicks and grins with the pressure, it was lower than 1009.4 for 8 minutes on the obs (yet it was only between 1009.3 and 1009.1 that entire time). Talk about a weak gradient.

[shell70]

Knowing my luck I will wake up tomorrow to hurricane warnings for my area.

[TheBurn]

[Air Force Met]

well there is a closed wind field but I dont believe that is anything more than a sharp wind shift seen on radar and satellite..

That is one helluva wind shift then, considering it shifted 180 degrees from ENE to WSW

exactly the point ... no true west wind I still believe its just a sharp wind shift..

Oh...there is all sorts of west wind out there. If you have a "closed wind field"...you have to have a west wind somewhere by definition. Otherwise...it would be a cusp.

The west winds exist out to the WSW of the center...out near 24N and 85-86W. They will be westerly all the way from that area...towards the ENE on to the center. Its elongated...but there are west winds southwest of the center.

Remember...you don't have to see a wind of 270 to mean you ahve a west wind. All you need to do is see a WNW-WSW wind. If you see something from 240-300 in an observation...buoy...ship...recon...that almost ensures you have a 270 wind somewhere. It is almost impossible to streamline a system with a wind from 240-250 or 300 and NOT close it off.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 258N, 837W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Dean4Storms]

One thing for sure, the shear is now out of the south over it!!

[dixiebreeze]

Getting some pretty good winds up here in Citrus County and it's great! First really windy day in a long, long time. Nothing but heat usually this summer.

[Dean4Storms]

We're getting a good breeze up here in the Panhandle as well Dixie!

[Aric Dunn]

exactly the point ... no true west wind I still believe its just a sharp wind shift..

Oh...there is all sorts of west wind out there. If you have a "closed wind field"...you have to have a west wind somewhere by definition. Otherwise...it would be a cusp.

The west winds exist out to the WSW of the center...out near 24N and 85-86W. They will be westerly all the way from that area...towards the ENE on to the center. Its elongated...but there are west winds southwest of the center.

Remember...you don't have to see a wind of 270 to mean you ahve a west wind. All you need to do is see a WNW-WSW wind. If you see something from 240-300 in an observation...buoy...ship...recon...that almost ensures you have a 270 wind somewhere. It is almost impossible to streamline a system with a wind from 240-250 or 300 and NOT close it off.

Thats true... But I guess my point was its not well defined enough for upgrade its clearly broad and elongated ... well who knows what they will do like you said earlier 93L may need a apology.. lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Impressive Wind Observations from Squalls well North of the Center:

37 mph at Saint Petersburg Airport:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

32 mph Tampa MacDill AFB
http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA

94L really getting its act together

[lester]

Down to 1008.9 mbs now via recon

[ColinDelia]

ULL looks like it is moving into NE Gulf now.

[Aric Dunn]

ULL looks like it is moving into NE Gulf now.

yeah that thing is racing off to the WNW .. should open a decent environment for slow strengthening.. its already improved leaps and bounds since last night

[Stormcenter]

If it's classified a TD at 5:00pm (or sooner)then what areas do the watches and warnings go up for?

[PerfectStorm]

Impressive heavy bands of rain starting to come into Tampa Bay, I'm in New Tampa and we are getting one helluva tropical downpour. Peak wind gust of 30mph. Nice squall.

[Ikester]

If I had to guess, I'd say Morgan City, LA to AL border...

[petit_bois]

If it's classified a TD at 5:00pm (or sooner)then what areas do the watches and warnings go up for?

Buras to Mobile will likely be the dirty side

[Air Force Met]

Thats true... But I guess my point was its not well defined enough for upgrade its clearly broad and elongated ... well who knows what they will do like you said earlier 93L may need a apology.. lol

I agree. To me its not well defined enough to upgrade. Its close and is certainly closer than it was this morning.

The convection is decreasing south of the LLC and although convection around the LLC is increasing...its still scattered. BUT...I gave up trying to figure out what the NHC was going to do a long time ago. I do feel fairly confident in this prediction though: This WILL be upgraded at some point. Whether its today or tomorrow...only time will tell. WHEN it gets upgraded really won't change the facts of what we have and won't change what they are going to forecast: A moderate-strong (50-60) TS into central-SE LA. That is my best guess on what their initial forecast will be...unless they hold off and something changes between now and tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

1008.4 mb, RECON