ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Ikester]

Seems like the NHC should at the least issue a tropical disturbance alert to the gulf coast states if it doesn't update. I have a hunch not many folks are taking this seriously enough

Well dare I say that this is not going to be a calamity of immeasurable proportions. Wherever this hits, those residents should be concerned about flooding...not necessarily losing their roof...given my personal intensity predictions.

[Weather Watcher]

I have a question?

According to the wunderground... http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

the Hurricane hunters found winds at 35 mph wouldn't this make it a td?

Steve

Highly dependent of how high the plane was flying and if they found a closed LLC. There is always a standard percentage reduction based on flight level.

Ok thank You

[dixiebreeze]

Seems like the NHC should at the least issue a tropical disturbance alert to the gulf coast states if it doesn't update. I have a hunch not many folks are taking this seriously enough

Well dare I say that this is not going to be a calamity of immeasurable proportions. Wherever this hits, those residents should be concerned about flooding...not necessarily losing their roof...given my personal intensity predictions.

It doesn't take a storm of major proportions to affect flooding and surge along the west coast of Florida, especially in the Big Bend area of Cedar Key with its very shallow shelf.

[allicat1214]

Seems like the NHC should at the least issue a tropical disturbance alert to the gulf coast states if it doesn't update. I have a hunch not many folks are taking this seriously enough

I agree Dixie...

Emergency plans for both local and state govts are based on certain milestones in advance of TS-force winds. If it's not upgraded to a TD tonight with watches and warnings issued for expected weather Thurs/Friday, and instead tomorrow becomes a TS and TS-force winds come on Thurs, that's less than 24-hour advance official warning.

Then the system everyone relies on will need to be addressed....

I know you have to base updates on the science of what's there, but the updates and watches/warnings are the green light for lots of public emergency preps. Gonna be interesting!!

And same goes for SELA as far as terrible impacts of rain and tidal surges....we have major issues during regular t-storms!!

[Ikester]

Seems like the NHC should at the least issue a tropical disturbance alert to the gulf coast states if it doesn't update. I have a hunch not many folks are taking this seriously enough

I agree Dixie...

Emergency plans for both local and state govts are based on certain milestones in advance of TS-force winds. If it's not upgraded to a TD tonight with watches and warnings issued for expected weather Thurs/Friday, and instead tomorrow becomes a TS and TS-force winds come on Thurs, that's less than 24-hour advance official warning.

Then the system everyone relies on will need to be addressed....

I know you have to base updates on the science of what's there, but the updates and watches/warnings are the green light for lots of public emergency preps. Gonna be interesting!!

I can assure you that this is no surprise to anybody. Just read the AFD out of N.O. Not to mention, work on the relief well was also halted. Believe me, the OEM is on top of things. There's no evacuations needed so therefore the 'work' will be up to the local news agencies and government officials to warn of an approaching storm...which has been done.

[Sanibel]

If this thing can snap good form together like that against the ULL I'd watch it closely.

[dixiebreeze]

Seems like the NHC should at the least issue a tropical disturbance alert to the gulf coast states if it doesn't update. I have a hunch not many folks are taking this seriously enough

I agree Dixie...

Emergency plans for both local and state govts are based on certain milestones in advance of TS-force winds. If it's not upgraded to a TD tonight with watches and warnings issued for expected weather Thurs/Friday, and instead tomorrow becomes a TS and TS-force winds come on Thurs, that's less than 24-hour advance official warning.

Then the system everyone relies on will need to be addressed....

I know you have to base updates on the science of what's there, but the updates and watches/warnings are the green light for lots of public emergency preps. Gonna be interesting!!

I can assure you that this is no surprise to anybody. Just read the AFD out of N.O. Not to mention, work on the relief well was also halted. Believe me, the OEM is on top of things. There's no evacuations needed so therefore the 'work' will be up to the local news agencies and government officials to warn of an approaching storm...which has been done.

Correct up to a point. Local and state Emergency ops rely heavily on alerts from the NHC to determine when to issue ER precautions, etc.

[cycloneye]

IMO,NHC is waiting for more data from the plane to then issue or not a special advisory after 6 PM EDT.

[dixiebreeze]

The point is that most folks aren't glued to an Storm2K-type forum like most of S2K members and many don't even pay attention to TV and radio weather reports until there are alerts. Even a major storm (not a TS or Cane) can play havoc along the vulnerable coastal areas.

[StormClouds63]

A mid-range TS is about the maximum this system will produce given the upper level conditions over the central GOM. Flooding could be an issue east of where the center makes landfall (e.g. Mobile, Pensacola). As long as the system doesn't "sit" over the Gulf for several days, it is very unlikely to develop into a serious wind threat, IMO. Overall structure of the system does seem to be improving on satellite, and it will almost certainly be classed as a TD within the next 12 hours. If the movement is rather slow, a TS is a good possibility just prior to landfall somewhere on the Mississippi (or Alabama coastline).

[allicat1214]

I can assure you that this is no surprise to anybody. Just read the AFD out of N.O. Not to mention, work on the relief well was also halted. Believe me, the OEM is on top of things. There's no evacuations needed so therefore the 'work' will be up to the local news agencies and government officials to warn of an approaching storm...which has been done.

Ike,

I agree that the emergency management officials (and utilities, oil companies, etc.) are aware of this but many residents here in LA are NOT....and many local mets are downplaying it. Most folks don't pay attention until official notices come from the NHC and their parish emergency offices. I am wondering if locals will put their plans into motion without any official watch or warning from the NHC.

Thanks!

[dixiebreeze]

We're on the same page allicat. We'll see what happens at 5 p.m.

[Wx_Warrior]

Is the trof getting overplayed here?

[Ikester]

I can assure you that this is no surprise to anybody. Just read the AFD out of N.O. Not to mention, work on the relief well was also halted. Believe me, the OEM is on top of things. There's no evacuations needed so therefore the 'work' will be up to the local news agencies and government officials to warn of an approaching storm...which has been done.

Ike,

I agree that the emergency management officials (and utilities, oil companies, etc.) are aware of this but many residents here in LA are NOT....and many local mets are downplaying it. Most folks don't pay attention until official notices come from the NHC and their parish emergency offices. I am wondering if locals will put their plans into motion without any official watch or warning from the NHC.

Thanks!

LOL. I get the point, but reality says that most in the N.O. viewing area will get nothing more than a rain storm. I'm not discounting some tropical storm winds along the coast, but I bet $100 dollars 'Danielle' won't be remembered for more than a few months and everybody around will say 'whew, we dogged a bullet.'

BUT....but....if it ramps up to a Cat 1 or 2, then forget about what I said above.

[Aric Dunn]

well there seems to be a pretty good upper ridge building in.... quite impressive actually..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Wx_Warrior]

I read this earlier...can't remember what page.

The spin just off the Florida coast is not the Low. That's the mid level. The surface low is farther west.

[tailgater]

I read this earlier...can't remember what page.

The spin just off the Florida coast is not the Low. That's the mid level. The surface low is farther west.

Well if I where to guess, I'd put it about 50-75 miles WNW of Dry Tortuga just judging from the surface Obs.

[Wx_Warrior]

1007 mb.....pretty weak eh

[brunota2003]

1017 mb.....pretty weak eh

1017 mb? Recon and surface obs are showing 1008/1009 (with the last pass dipping down to 1007.8 mb)

[Stormcenter]

It continues to look better overall on satellite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html