ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding a very disorganized LLC multiple wind shifts.. its still very elongated and broad its going to need convection which is developing near the MLC should be pulled to any decent convection..

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure looks to be coming together on satellite. It may not be anything really substantial in the end, but as it looks now..I certainly don't see it falling apart. For that reason, I think they'll call it TD at some point tonight, just to give everyone a heads up along the coastal states that will be affected.

[Nimbus]

My call was that they would be upgrading to a TD today guess I was wrong. There is something to the argument that if its going to be a TS in 48 hours they should call it early. There is offshore activity that will be effected before landfall and it clearly has had a closed circulation for a while. Maybe they thought recon would find TS winds so they could jump right to a named storm?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nice images Ivan! Definitely looks like this system is starting to come together.

[HURAKAN]

NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Air Force Met]

recon finding a very disorganized LLC multiple wind shifts.. its still very elongated and broad its going to need convection which is developing near the MLC should be pulled to any decent convection..

I'm shocked they are finding a weak disorganized LLC with a pressure of 1008mb and winds 20-25 MPH.

Shocked.

[ronjon]

The MLC is becoming better defined on RAD. Interesting now that heavy convection is now north of the MLC. I would expect the LLC to become established beneath the MLC tonight and then we have a tropical cyclone. Looks to be drifting NW or N-NW now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[lebron23]

WNW NOT northwest or north north west..

[HouTXmetro]

WNW NOT northwest or north north west..

He's referring to the MLC feature.

[tailgater]

The MLC is becoming better defined on RAD. Interesting now that heavy convection is now north of the MLC. I would expect the LLC to become established beneath the MLC tonight and then we have a tropical cyclone. Looks to be drifting NW or N-NW now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

I think that MLC or what ever it is, is just rotating around the surface reflection NW or WNW of Dry Tortuga

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding a very disorganized LLC multiple wind shifts.. its still very elongated and broad its going to need convection which is developing near the MLC should be pulled to any decent convection..

I'm shocked they are finding a weak disorganized LLC with a pressure of 1008mb and winds 20-25 MPH.

Shocked.

haha... well yeah ... lol it should consolidate with the MLC overnight

[LaBreeze]

A mid-range TS is about the maximum this system will produce given the upper level conditions over the central GOM. Flooding could be an issue east of where the center makes landfall (e.g. Mobile, Pensacola). As long as the system doesn't "sit" over the Gulf for several days, it is very unlikely to develop into a serious wind threat, IMO. Overall structure of the system does seem to be improving on satellite, and it will almost certainly be classed as a TD within the next 12 hours. If the movement is rather slow, a TS is a good possibility just prior to landfall somewhere on the Mississippi (or Alabama coastline).

How certain are we that this system is headed to make a landfall in MS or AL?

[Air Force Met]

recon finding a very disorganized LLC multiple wind shifts.. its still very elongated and broad its going to need convection which is developing near the MLC should be pulled to any decent convection..

I'm shocked they are finding a weak disorganized LLC with a pressure of 1008mb and winds 20-25 MPH.

Shocked.

haha... well yeah ... lol it should consolidate with the MLC overnight

Yeah...I think we wake up tomorrow with a well consolidated TD or weak TS.

[blp]

This thing is looking good. Kudos to the models that sniffed this out of nothing a couple of days ago. Quite a surprise.

[Nimbus]

The ULL that has been pulling dry air in and shredding the convection is weakening. There is some ridging building in to the north which will tighten up the gradient. With those high SST's the one good thing we have against rapid development is that the surface pressure is low over a rather broad area and is not focused.

[Air Force Met]

A mid-range TS is about the maximum this system will produce given the upper level conditions over the central GOM. Flooding could be an issue east of where the center makes landfall (e.g. Mobile, Pensacola). As long as the system doesn't "sit" over the Gulf for several days, it is very unlikely to develop into a serious wind threat, IMO. Overall structure of the system does seem to be improving on satellite, and it will almost certainly be classed as a TD within the next 12 hours. If the movement is rather slow, a TS is a good possibility just prior to landfall somewhere on the Mississippi (or Alabama coastline).

How certain are we that this system is headed to make a landfall in MS or AL?

I don't think we are certain of that at all. Maybe Stormclouds is...and I can't speak for everyone...but I don't think anyone is certain. I think it is a Louisiana storm personally. It might get over into MS...but landfall appears to me at least to be in LA.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm shocked they are finding a weak disorganized LLC with a pressure of 1008mb and winds 20-25 MPH.

Shocked.

haha... well yeah ... lol it should consolidate with the MLC overnight

Yeah...I think we wake up tomorrow with a well consolidated TD or weak TS.

well Im beginning to wonder if we are going to see some significant strengthening tomorrow. The ULL is positioning itself in a very prime location and the outflow over the systems is becoming very symmetric and expansive this afternoon. I think once it establishes a well defined LLC we could see it reach 50 or 60 pretty quickly and I want to bring the chances to hurricane up a little given the synoptic's at the moment.

[LaBreeze]

A mid-range TS is about the maximum this system will produce given the upper level conditions over the central GOM. Flooding could be an issue east of where the center makes landfall (e.g. Mobile, Pensacola). As long as the system doesn't "sit" over the Gulf for several days, it is very unlikely to develop into a serious wind threat, IMO. Overall structure of the system does seem to be improving on satellite, and it will almost certainly be classed as a TD within the next 12 hours. If the movement is rather slow, a TS is a good possibility just prior to landfall somewhere on the Mississippi (or Alabama coastline).

How certain are we that this system is headed to make a landfall in MS or AL?

I don't think we are certain of that at all. Maybe Stormclouds is...and I can't speak for everyone...but I don't think anyone is certain. I think it is a Louisiana storm personally. It might get over into MS...but landfall appears to me at least to be in LA.

I totally agree on the "certainty" thing. I was just wondering what Stormclouds was seeing. Believe me, I know, with the GOM no one can ever be really certain. Been around along time - since before Hurricane Audrey in 1957, so I've developed a lifelong respect for the GOM.

[sphelps8681]

When will it need to start heading more NW to confirm current model tracks?