ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[blazess556]

A buoy is now reporting sustained winds of 28 knots with gusts to 30 knots.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=plsf1

[KWT]

Would a deeper system in any way affect the ultimate point of landfall as opposed to a weaker system being portrayed by most of the models?

Possibly would be more to the east if this one follows the usual basic logic, of course it doesn't always follow basic logic sadly!

[Aric Dunn]

winds sustained at 32mph at the cman station west of the keys..

[blazess556]

this storms llc is tightening ridiculously fast.

check out this loop

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

[lebron23]

TS Watches Morgan City,LA, Mobile,AL

[KWT]

1st advisory should be out in the next 30 minutes.

I doubt the 1st advisory is going to be all that exciting, esp given the models just refuse to do anything with this one, but we will see soon enough!

[Aric Dunn]

TS Watches Morgan City,LA, Mobile,AL

thats your thoughts...?

[wxman57]

That's a surprise, as convection has been diminishing for 6 hours. Perhaps NHC felt that they wanted to get watches out sooner rather than later? No sense in putting them out in the middle of the night.

[srainhoutx]

TS Watches Morgan City,LA, Mobile,AL

Link?

[cycloneye]

TS Watches Morgan City,LA, Mobile,AL

Lets wait for the official information and not throw out there unofficial things.

[IvanSurvivor]

What will keep TD 5 from making a landfall in MS, AL or the FL Panhandle? Are there any scenarios that would change it's current track to LA?

[ozonepete]

TS Watches Morgan City,LA, Mobile,AL

Lets wait for the official information and not throw out there unofficial things.

Yes, please. That was very confusing. I thought you saw something official. You should say it's a foecast and post a disclaimer.

[ozonepete]

What will keep TD 5 from making a landfall in MS, AL or the FL Panhandle? Are there any scenarios that would change it's current track to LA?

The stronger it gets the more northward its steering compoent will be. So it's more towards Louisiana if it's weak, but if it ramps up really quickly it will go more towards Alabama or even the FLA panhandle.

[KWT]

That's a surprise, as convection has been diminishing for 6 hours. Perhaps NHC felt that they wanted to get watches out sooner rather than later? No sense in putting them out in the middle of the night.

Yeah I'd imagine thats exactly why they've done it now instead of wait until people are heading off to sleep...

The LLC does appear to be tightening up though and the centers appear to be getting better stacked, just needs some decent convection over the actual center, not sure it'll even get that given Dianmu never really managed it and this is a carbon copy in terms of apperence thus far...

[kjg123]

Bob Breck of FOX-8 New Orleans has announced that an advisory will be issued at 7pm, officially naming this TD #5. He indicated that it has winds of 30 mph.

[Steve]

Sure there are. But it probably doesn't matter that much if TD #5 only attains tropical storm status. Usually with tropical storms winds aren't much of a factor. It's the rainfall. You would probably see similar weather if the circulation came in anywhere between LA and Pensacola.

There is a much bigger difference with hurricanes where you can still get squally weather 200 miles out but where your proximity to the central core becomes a much bigger deal (wind, surge, etc.).

[Pearl River]

AL, 05, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 257N, 839W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[Alacane2]

TS Watches Morgan City,LA, Mobile,AL

Can't be Mobile because it is not an official watch/warning breakpoint. It would be the MS/AL border, Pascagoula, MS, or AL/FL border.

[jasons2k]

I just don't know what to make of this one, honestly.

Sometimes, I think it's pretty straightforward: a strong TS into SC/SE LA on Thursday.

Then I start thinking and I just do not know...and we often see the first advisory or two undergo a pretty big adjustment before the NHC settles on a track. Should be interesting to see how things unfold over the next 24-hours at least.

I would like to see some more consistency from the models, after this becomes more organized, before I can be confident of anything about 94L/TD5's future.

[Weatherfreak000]

Easy call to make. Ray Charles could see that tight LLC. A member from our fellow hometown NOLA asked me thru PM what I expected from the storm so I am going to go ahead and post that here.

First of all I will start by saying I am SEVERELY disappointed in our local weather coverage. The lady on Ch.6 gave the most unbelievably false analysis of TD5 I can even imagine. She implied the system has alot of wind shear over it (5 knots?), a ton of dry air, and a general lack of organization.

Here are the facts:

-SST's as well as depth of warm water are going to increase.
-Wind shear remains low
-The TUTT is rapidly clearing out the way, as well as the dry air.



Can things change? Sure. But I am calling at minimum a Category One hurricane. Landfall should be from around south of Houma, LA to around Mobile. My confidence is this is and has always been high. The models have given no one any reason to discount this and i'm confident the NHC shall reflect a similar cone.


As far as what we should do here in NOLA.....honestly be weary. Overnight tonight is going to be one hell of a nail biter and i'm seeing Danielle getting plenty stronger. Currently I believe unfortunately a Cat 1/2 landfall is looking good.


Everyone stay safe, as always.


Edit: The lack of convection currently is due to dry air from the rapidly moving ULL, and potentially interaction with the ULL itself. This should be a nonissue going into tonight. After that it's anyones guess what this thing can do.



Sorry Cajunmama:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.