ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

convection is holding better

[cycloneye]

Nice comparisons there. And is holding in D-MIN.

[brunota2003]

If this keeps up, DMAX could be very helpful for this system. Convection holding/expanding, and up next is looking for a T# 2.0/2.0

[HURAKAN]

not bad

[brunota2003]

Is that the start of something over the center, or is it just another cap gun going "poof?

[HURAKAN]

Is that the start of something over the center, or is it just another cap gun going "poof?

only time will tell

[ColinDelia]

This will be an interesting few hours. The little cyclone that could?

[HURAKAN]

Not surprisingly, the thunderstorms are colapsing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

[KWT]

Just can't hold itself together for long enough and drag the convection over its circulation.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MINIMAL. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[KWT]

Still holding at 60%, I'm guessing the strong LLC circulation is what is preventing the NHC from dropping the odds below that level.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010081100, , BEST, 0, 246N, 526W, 30, 1012, LO

[HURAKAN]

Maybe when 93L turns north, it could develop. Doesn't matter if shear increases, if you move with the flow, you can still develop.

[cycloneye]

This invest has to be one of the longest duration ones without being upgraded (6 Days). Look at the whole Best Track file for 93L.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[brunota2003]

There are a couple of storms developing just to the east of the center.

[HURAKAN]

This invest has to be one of the longest duration ones without being upgraded (6 Days). Look at the whole Best Track file for 93L.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

1st 92L was long too.

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe when 93L turns north, it could develop. Doesn't matter if shear increases, if you move with the flow, you can still develop.

I don't know about that Hurakan, look how much Colin struggled when it moved North. Even WXman thought that Colin would become a hurricane as it was moving North, but as we've seen all season long, something kept it in check....

[Ivanhater]

I would bet on this becoming named..model support is just too good.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe when 93L turns north, it could develop. Doesn't matter if shear increases, if you move with the flow, you can still develop.

I don't know about that Hurakan, look how much Colin struggled when it moved North. Even WXman thought that Colin would become a hurricane as it was moving North, but as we've seen all season long, something kept it in check....

I know but that looks like its last shot.

[gatorcane]

It's systems like this one and TD 5 that really need to get named if some of the pre-season predictions from the forecasting agencies are going to verify. Here we are nearly in mid August...I'm looking at the GFS runs recently and there just isn't much coming down the pike at least for about 12 days out in the GFS run...nor the long-range ECMWF....granted things can change in a hurry.

At the least the NHC is not biased this year in naming systems that shouldn't be named......