Wave East of the Windward Islands

[cycloneye]

Wow Sandy, that is a sharp turn,but as you note is unofficial.

[KWT]

Interesting track, probably would have to deal with increasing shear from 96hrs onwards though I'd imagine, that track will probably be one that has some sort of shear for most of the season.

I'm not expecting anything much of this but could see something if it heads west instead down the line.

[floridasun78]

were

this is the prediction for unofficial invest 25L

were you see that? website

[HURAKAN]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/#

[ConvergenceZone]

Interesting track, probably would have to deal with increasing shear from 96hrs onwards though I'd imagine, that track will probably be one that has some sort of shear for most of the season.

I'm not expecting anything much of this but could see something if it heads west instead down the line.

Wow, just another system with more shear in it's path.......The story of the season so far..

[HURAKAN]

upper level anticyclone over this system

[Blown Away]

It seems the steering currents are going to be very weak over the next few days and there is enough weakness to draw this area NW. Hopefully if this system develops there is enough weakness to draw it far enough north to recurve. Many systems have developed in this area and drifted NW and didn't make it far enough to recurve only to get trapped under a building ridge.

[abajan]

Wow, just another system with more shear in it's path.......The story of the season so far..

Those are the operative words. As a wiseacre once said, “The past does not predict the future.” In other words, what’s been happening ain’t necessarily what’s going to happen.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, just another system with more shear in it's path.......The story of the season so far..

Those are the operative words. As a wiseacre once said, “The past does not predict the future.” In other words, what’s been happening ain’t necessarily what’s going to happen.

as another wise man said "I'll believe it when I see it"...

[Patrick99]

Looks decent, clearly some spin there. And it just looks to me that if it can stay far enough south in the short term, it could possibly avoid the brunt of the shear axis showing up on the WV loop from that large upper level low well to its NNW. I don't know, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I'm cautiously bullish on this.

[HURAKAN]

470
ABNT20 KNHC 110557
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS
HAS INCREASED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 625
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED AND
POORLY ORGANIZED. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Blown Away]

Showers a little concentrated this morning, let's see what happens during the day!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[tolakram]

Starting to look a little more serious.

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Islanders should be watching this, though probably just a period of storms and rain at this point.

[expat2carib]

Looking better and STILL moving ,almost, due west.

[canes101]

Latest

[OuterBanker]

And the convection is firing up over the center of the llc, that's a first this season

[hurricaneCW]

I think it's just some D-MAX convection. It will probably all poof by this evening. What LLC? There's no LLC.

[canes101]

Its not D-Max right now....

[hurricaneCW]

It's left over flareups from D-MAX, which occurs in the early morning hours. The flareups began in the early morning hours.