ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

You know...this thing really has a broad circulation. Buoy 42001 all the way out near 90W actually has the lowest pressure in the Gulf by almost a MB.

Bottom line on that is: While I think the track will be towards Cntl-E LA...anyone from E TX to FL is open for business as long as the pressure field remains so loose. All it would take would be a deep convective burst out near that low pressure in the central Gulf and TD#5 would be relocated 300 miles to the west. Do I think it will happen? No. But...until a tight center forms on this system...with a good pressure gradient...its only a guess where its going and that guess is based on where we think the center is and will stay.

[Stormcenter]

Only If it were that easy. Unfoturnately tropical systems "sometimes" don't follow scripts one way or another.
I'm not saying this will be the case with TD5 because I really don't see it becoming more than a
60mph tropical system. I'm only saying that because nothing is ever written in stone when it comes to the tropics. IMO

Not to imply that this will be very strong, but how many times has the NHC underestimated a strengthening storm only to roll out the tried and true "we remain somewhat unskilled in the area of intensity forecasting". ...

Gosh yeah if there is one thing that clearly the NHC still struggle at quite a few times it is intensity...I think th first advisory was too low but we will see..the next 24hrs will let us know how is all going.

Agreed, but model consensus is in excellent agreement that TD #5 is not going to become anything significant (i.e. major hurricane)....the GFDL shows a minimal hurricane but even the NHC is throwing that out at the moment....and for obvious reasons. Look how many times the GFDL has been biased towards an intense system.

When consensus is that good, you have to go with the models...chances are quite high that if it becomes named, it won't be more than a tropical storm with an outside chance of a CAT 1 hurricane.

Looking at TD #5 tonight, I think it is barely a TD. Convection is on the decrease as dry (more stable air) is being pumped in from the ULL...this is not a Katrina situation at all. By dry I mean relatively more stable air over mainland SE United States.

TD #5 is also starting to get a move on to the WNW...by this time tomorrow will be moving at a very good clip to the NW and will be over land before anything significant can develop.

[HeeBGBz]

I'm thinking quite a few people will be thinking this storm will be no big deal. I have a gut feeling she might get pretty fierce. Danielle was the one hurricane name I thought sounded like trouble. I'm glad it's gonna hit on my day off.

[Stormcenter]

Storms refiring near the center of TD5. Let's see if it can maintain it
and expand.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[cpdaman]

I'm thinking quite a few people will be thinking this storm will be no big deal. I have a gut feeling she might get pretty fierce. Danielle was the one hurricane name I thought sounded like trouble. I'm glad it's gonna hit on my day off.

makes sense lol

the broadness of the circulation AFM speaks about is interesting.....who knows where she goes

although i thought this had a decent LLC.....

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the President's trip to Panama City might be a little soggy. Will probably find out tomorrow if he is going to cancel. He probably doesn't like to golf in the rain. Neither do I!

[ROCK]

You know...this thing really has a broad circulation. Buoy 42001 all the way out near 90W actually has the lowest pressure in the Gulf by almost a MB.

Bottom line on that is: While I think the track will be towards Cntl-E LA...anyone from E TX to FL is open for business as long as the pressure field remains so loose. All it would take would be a deep convective burst out near that low pressure in the central Gulf and TD#5 would be relocated 300 miles to the west. Do I think it will happen? No. But...until a tight center forms on this system...with a good pressure gradient...its only a guess where its going and that guess is based on where we think the center is and will stay.

cannot agree more....look at the recent waning of convection and the new burst more south and west....center relos will get you every time.... but we wait and see...personally CLA to FL is my take for now.....and thats just me being a Maverick....

[ozonepete]

You know...this thing really has a broad circulation. Buoy 42001 all the way out near 90W actually has the lowest pressure in the Gulf by almost a MB.

Bottom line on that is: While I think the track will be towards Cntl-E LA...anyone from E TX to FL is open for business as long as the pressure field remains so loose. All it would take would be a deep convective burst out near that low pressure in the central Gulf and TD#5 would be relocated 300 miles to the west. Do I think it will happen? No. But...until a tight center forms on this system...with a good pressure gradient...its only a guess where its going and that guess is based on where we think the center is and will stay.

I agree with you too. Well said.

[Blown Away]

Do you think if we combined TD2, Bonnie, Colin, TD5, and 93L we could get a TS gust at the surface?

[Bailey1777]

just call me the outier with a west bias but im sticking to my guns that our td makes it west of 92w

[frederic79]

Anyone looked at shear tendency lately? Rather dramatic change from earlier shear map for potential path of TD5. Shear is nearly non-existent from current center fix almost to the northern gulf coast, where it still trends stronger at the coastline but is apparently retreating.

[BigA]

Sorry if this was already posted.

Shear currently not an issue.



Upper level anticyclone appears to be over TD5



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Can't say if conditions will stay good, but they sure look fine now. Waiting for the DMAX convection.

[SouthFloridawx]

There must be some dry air intrusion from the Upper Level Low...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

[bbadon]

So someone explain this too me. In relation to what Air Force Met was talking about. Pressure at 42001 29.79 and decreasing convection in the general area , 42003 27.81 rising convection waning. Could there be a reformation already taking place?

[Dean4Storms]

Long range radar out of Tampa appears to show convection on the increase.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[gatorcane]

There must be some dry air intrusion from the Upper Level Low...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

Indeed and TD #5 continues to get eaten away by this "drier" air. The ULL is simply pulling down this more stable air that exists over large landmasses and filtering it right into the heart of TD #5. It looks rather pathetic tonight. This is not to say it could gradually get its act together over the next day or so as the ULL scoots out of the way, but thankfully appears TD #5 will run out of time before it can. Amazing how similar this looks to what Bonnie had to deal with especially the placement of the ULL just to the north.....

[BigA]

Looks to me like the best chance for a center consolidation is in the area on radar (see above) moving wnw to nw directly west of Forty Myers. It matches up well with the strongest 850 mb vorticity.

[bayoubebe]

The track looks further west than earlier. Are my amateur eyes seeing correctly?

[gatorcane]

How is this even classified as a depression at this point? I have seen invests look better than this looks. The low pressure "center" is very broad, convection is poofing quickly....

To put this in perspective, compare TD #5 to the tropical wave approaching the southern Leewards (seen on this pic, by the way it seems on a poofing trend as well). The wave has good spin also, not quite as much convection though and it has a 10% chance of development, it's not even an invest!

[DTWright]

Too many variables right now to tell exactly what may take place, but writing it off at this stage is very premature. A 50-60 MPH TS with a large windfield is nothing to take lightly. Tornadoes, Oil, Heavy Rains . . . you name it. I believe the latest models have it mostly just West of NOLA to the Mobile ( mostly around SELA ), area though so I for one will be watching closely until it is inland and has dissipated.