ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

This is not even close to being written off yet. IMO

[gatorcane]

This is not even close to being written off yet. IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

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I'm not writing it off, but the possibility of a hurricane out of this really looks slim to none to me. A TS still is not out of the question, but this poofing we are seeing may seal the deal on no hurricane.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is not even close to being written off yet. IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

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I'm not writing it off, but the possibility of a hurricane out of this really looks slim to none to me. A TS still is not out of the question, but this poofing we are seeing may seal the deal on no hurricane.

Yea, I believe we will get a tropical storm out of it too, but that the chances for it going hurricane are dropping by the hour....I'll go as high as 50 mph though, probably not until just before landfall...

[Stormcenter]

Is it still possible (hurricane)? Yes. Is it likely? No...not based on what's ahead (conditions)
for TD5 but you just never know with these things. IMO

This is not even close to being written off yet. IMO

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

I'm not writing it off, but the possibility of a hurricane out of this really looks slim to none to me. A TS still is not out of the question, but this poofing we are seeing may seal the deal on no hurricane.

[sunnyday]

It looks pitiful, like an outline of a storm with nothing in the middle. It has no shape at all. This is just my opinion from looking at the mess, but I see poof on the horizon unless it changes.

[redfish1]

it sure does look like it is moving west to me any thoughts on that?

[tropicwatch]

How is this even classified as a depression at this point? I have seen invests look better than this looks. The low pressure "center" is very broad, convection is poofing quickly....

To put this in perspective, compare TD #5 to the tropical wave approaching the southern Leewards (seen on this pic, by the way it seems on a poofing trend as well). The wave has good spin also, not quite as much convection though and it has a 10% chance of development, it's not even an invest!

It is pretty pitifull looking right now isn't it. I have been watching the wind direction, barometric pressure and so forth in Panama City and nothing really happening. The wind is light and variable and the pressure has been steady.

[redfish1]

if it stays weak would that cause it to move more westerly?

[Plant grower]

Well I just think the NHC is rolling the dice buying into the shear from the east the GFS keeps rolling out. Keep in mind GFS has been almost garbage this season.

[Stormcenter]

You may not be saying that tomorrow morning.

It looks pitiful, like an outline of a storm with nothing in the middle. It has no shape at all. This is just my opinion from looking at the mess, but I see poof on the horizon unless it changes.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmmm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[TexWx]

Is BP seeding this thing?

I kid, I kid...

[redfish1]

Hmmmmmmm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

what are you seeing i could not pull it up?

[Bailey1777]

man you would think that someone was manipulating the weather the way these ull's keep setting up and running down these tropical systems

[ConvergenceZone]

panamatropicwatch, wow I agree. This is the first time I really looked at the Satellite picture since mid-afternoon, but if you look at that picture you just posted, you wouldn't even know there was a depression in the gulf at all....

I still think it has a shot at a tropical storm, but if it's going to make it to tropical storm strength, it needs to start building convection fast....

[gatorcane]

Hmmmmmmm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

what are you seeing i could not pull it up?

Shows 41 frames of a system that started out looking somewhat impressive and now it is close to being a naked swirl with some pops of convection here and there........

Still DMAX is still coming up, a convection blowup near the center could start an organizational trends. I'm surprised the NHC did not mention that it has become less organized (since I think it has) since earlier today. They just said it has not changed in organization....hmmm

[BigB0882]

If the NHC track and timing verifies, flooding could be major. This storm hardly moves between 8pm Thur and 8pm Friday. If convection deepens before landfall and there is heavy banding, some areas could see a TON of rainfall. The problems it is having tonight may be a blessing in the end but this still has nearly 48 hours to get its act together. I am no longer going to focus on wind speed and intensity forecasts, flooding will be the big key here.

[redfish1]

Hmmmmmmm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

what are you seeing i could not pull it up?

Shows 41 frames of a system that started out looking somewhat impressive and now it is close to being a naked swirl with some pops of convection here and there........

would that effect its track?

[ConvergenceZone]

man you would think that someone was manipulating the weather the way these ull's keep setting up and running down these tropical systems

Yea, we are being blessed this season so far, that's for sure.....Pretty amazing.

[gatorcane]

man you would think that someone was manipulating the weather the way these ull's keep setting up and running down these tropical systems

Yea, we are being blessed this season so far, that's for sure.....Pretty amazing.

Indeed we have but the meat of the season has not even begun I'm afraid......that starts around Aug. 15th....