What is the future of this season?

[ConvergenceZone]

So far, it seems like the rest of this season is going to be very difficult to predict. Tropical Depressoin 5 suppose to encounter some decent shear to keep it in check as a tropical storm, and KWT mentioned that there's shear ahead of 93L to perhaps keep it in check as well....

After the depression more than likely forms into a TS in the Gulf, is there anything else in the pipeline that looks like a possibility for strong development? August 11th is tomorrow, and usually we get models letting us know a week to 2 weeks in advance if anything is coming up. In a week and 1/2 we'll be past August 20th......

Just information to note, as I'm trying to look ahead.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm going to see if I can contact the guy at crownweather.com and see what he thinks, because he had posted a couple of days ago that the GFS was showing LOTS of development coming up in the next 2 to 3 weeks, but I'm not seeing it unless perhaps I'm looking at the wrong maps.

So I think I need to email him to see what he's looking at. Maybe he's on to something that we here at S2K haven't discovered yet.....

[HURRICANELONNY]

What happen to the SAL?? I think the chemistry is slowly coming together.
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten ... 0_0900.gif

OOPS. wrong link.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[ConvergenceZone]

What happen to the SAL?? I think the chemistry is slowly coming together.
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten ... 0_0900.gif

Yea, I was thinking the same thing. I was looking at the SAL map this morning, thinking, Hmmm, why aren't all of the models jumping on this and going gung ho on development in about two weeks?....Surely they must be seeing these conditions coming together. Perhaps the models aren't as smart as we give them credit for sometimes.....

[AtlanticWind]

I would not put a lot of trust in the models past 7 days. one day they will develop 2 storms at long range then the next day nothing .

[ConvergenceZone]

I would not put a lot of trust in the models past 7 days. one day they will develop 2 storms at long range then the next day nothing .

Yea, you are probably right....I think between August 25th and September 10, it will start picking up, and that's only 2 weeks away.....

[gatorcane]

I would not put a lot of trust in the models past 7 days. one day they will develop 2 storms at long range then the next day nothing .

Yea, you are probably right....I think between August 25th and September 10, it will start picking up, and that's only 2 weeks away.....

True but every year it picks up during this time, so far this year is no different.....seems to be following CLIMO (exception is Alex way back earlier this season, but since then nothing out of the ordinary, just a typical season in the Atlantic that we have seen during this "active" phase since 1995).

[ConvergenceZone]

I would not put a lot of trust in the models past 7 days. one day they will develop 2 storms at long range then the next day nothing .

Yea, you are probably right....I think between August 25th and September 10, it will start picking up, and that's only 2 weeks away.....

True but every year it picks up during this time, so far this year is no different.....seems to be following CLIMO (exception is Alex way back earlier this season, but since then nothing out of the ordinary, just a typical season in the Atlantic that we have seen during this "active" phase since 1995).

Good points you make gator. That's why we need to keep this speculative thread going. It's all about speculation. It's about those who say it's going to be a hyperactive year, against those who think it's not going to be a hyperactive year(which is the camp I'm in)........We'll see who's right in the end. It's all in fun....
Right now it's just speculation on everyone's parts...

[Weatherfreak000]

^CZ

At this point, the "Doomsdayers" (Joking of course with that term) are looking for a little evidence. That's all. It mustn't be TOO hard to find, is it?


As far as the Pro-Activity campers (I suppose such as myself) go, I side with the Pro Mets. The ACE jump statisically by Aug 15th is much too substantial, and there is evidence to prove it. Not only that, but we can infer that La Nina seasons typically have late starts because we have monitored many analogs to that.


Ball is in your court. Can you step up the speculation make it something of a hypothesis?

If you can your opinion will be much appreciated by your peers. I wanna know WHY the season is a dud. I don't want to be reminded over and over.

[ConvergenceZone]

^CZ

At this point, the "Doomsdayers" (Joking of course with that term) are looking for a little evidence. That's all. It mustn't be TOO hard to find, is it?


As far as the Pro-Activity campers (I suppose such as myself) go, I side with the Pro Mets. The ACE jump statisically by Aug 15th is much too substantial, and there is evidence to prove it. Not only that, but we can infer that La Nina seasons typically have late starts because we have monitored many analogs to that.


Ball is in your court. Can you step up the speculation make it something of a hypothesis?

If you can your opinion will be much appreciated by your peers. I wanna know WHY the season is a dud. I don't want to be reminded over and over.

Weatherfreak, I think you need to be careful when you use the word "dud", because I've only seen a couple of people actually say that, and I don't know if they were kidding or being sarcastic.....It's more of those who say it's going to be insanely hyperactive vrs those who say it's going to be normal or perhaps a little bit above normal......But I think KWT created this thread so that those who aren't interested in this type of discussion don't have to click on the thread....
If someone doesn't like this discussion, then if they click on the thread, it's their own fault

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't have a problem, I just wanna come right out and say that plainly. Ok so your calling for an average season. My logic remains the same. I would like to see some hypothesis.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't have a problem, I just wanna come right out and say that plainly. Ok so your calling for an average season. My logic remains the same. I would like to see some hypothesis.

My reasoning is more based upon the fact that I don't see the insane crazy ripe juice convective tropics that I thought I would see by now.
I see an Atlantic that looks pretty normal this time of year.....I just don't see there being 16 to 20 storms, and since the models typically know about a week to a week and 1/2 in advance what's going to happen, that would lead us to around August 20th, which would leave even less time to hit the 16 to 20 storm total , which I consider hyperactive.

Another thing is that Even Brian Norcross was mentioning that "typically" you would expect a much higher average number of storms during La Nina, and then he made sure to emphasis, "not always but typically", so even he admits that they are playing the odds here...There are many more things that have to come together than just high SSTs, and I think that's been demonstrated already.

[Weatherfreak000]

So CZ, are you implying assuming Danielle forms we WON'T see 12 more storms?......with the SST's out there and two and a half solid months of activity? (Not even including November)


You cannot just SAY that, and that is my problem. I need to know why that will occur. I see a very much more favorable Atlantic than I saw just a week ago. I don't agree with your assessment, and here is why.

[ConvergenceZone]

So CZ, are you implying assuming Danielle forms we WON'T see 12 more storms?......with the SST's out there and two and a half solid months of activity? (Not even including November)
You cannot just SAY that, and that is my problem. I need to know why that will occur. I see a very much more favorable Atlantic than I saw just a week ago. I don't agree with your assessment, and here is why.

Well, you and I know that all the ingredients have to come together, not just a decrease in SAL and warm waters. Yes that helps, and
yes I'm sure we will get some development out of it, but how much?? Also, there's still no guarantee that the season of hyperactivity is going to extend past October. Sure that's a possiblity,
but it's no guarantee either...I think Frank was mentioning the exact same thing earlier that there have been plenty of years where seasons just shut off after early October.
Yes, in La Nina, it doesn't suppose to happen that way, but there's also no guarantee that it will continue after that time either. Now if you are going with the assumption that the season will still be strong after October, then yes, you do have an argument that we COULD hit 16+ storms.
Now, we should get Danielle in the Gulf, then we should get at least 2 more storms in August, and then the pressure is really on September to be an absolutely huge month with a couple in October and maybe 1 in November. If tha happens then we could have 16+ like you are saying, but of course every day that passes without the 5th storm forming will diminish that possibility.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't have a problem, I just wanna come right out and say that plainly. Ok so your calling for an average season. My logic remains the same. I would like to see some hypothesis.

No, I said it could be above averge, just not the super hyperactive year you are forecasting...
In my opinion right now....

P.S. Oh Weatherfreek, I wasn't talking about you having a problem with us discussing it, I was talking about those that complain about it being talked about at all.... And You and Ivanhater were right. It is talked about too much on other threads that should be about the storm that the thread was created for. I was just saying that since this has it's own thread, people can only fault themselves if they read this thread and get upset that people are talking about it ....

[ConvergenceZone]

One other point I wanted to make Weatherfreak000 , is that I have no problem being wrong...
2 months from now, I may say, "Ya know what Weatherfreak000, you were right, the tropics absolutely exploded, it's insane out there. I was completely wrong." and I have no problem admitting that.... I don't have that much pride hehe....

[StormClouds63]

The clock keeps ticking, and we still await the signs of a busy, above-average season as predicted by the experts. In no season of recent memory do I recall 3 worse looking tropical systems than Bonnie, Colin, and TD-5. Something just isn't right with the environmental factors which would lead to an above average season. Water temperatures are high, but all other conditions seem negative. I see nothing that is going to change this except for the much-hyped MJO pulse forecast to arrive later this month for the Atlantic Basin. Maybe "my name is Earl" can break the pattern, because TD-5 will probably be named Danielle tomorrow as a minimal or mid-range TS.

At least TD-5 (Danielle) will not cause significant damage to any populated area when it makes landfall. Some coastal flooding and squally weather is about all one should expect. I'm very glad those areas affected by Katrina should not have much of a problem with TD-5 (Danielle).

Just for fun, keep an eye on the wave which emerged off the African coast a day or two ago. It might have a decent chance. whether it stays as a low-rider or is a fish remains to be seen. If it stays on a due west course and can reach the Caribbean, we might have something.

Asssuming Danielle is named a TS tomorrow, my guess for the remainder of the season is 9/6/3. This takes into account category 2 Alex, plus tropical storms Bonnie, Colin, and soon-to-be Danielle. Thus, my original prediction at the beginning of the season was 13/7/3.

[KWT]

but it's no guarantee either...I think Frank was mentioning the exact same thing earlier that there have been plenty of years where seasons just shut off after early October.
Yes, in La Nina, it doesn't suppose to happen that way, but there's also no guarantee that it will continue after that time either

I'm telling you now this season almost certainly will extend past late September/Early October...the fact EVERY single La Nina in the last 100 years have had late season activity (thats 24 years btw, so 24 out of 24) and that 60% overall have had a major hurricane (and that goes upto 81% in the warm AMO phase) makes me feel pretty confident this will be a late lasting season.

That being said for all the clear pre-season favourable conditions, clearly there is something holding it back, I mean we are getting weak systems but they ar ejust constantly getting sheared to pieces and it seems everytime something gets going a ULL develops right next to it.

I'm baffled as to why but all of the preseason favourable factors won't matter a jot if uncle TUTT keeps on producing ULL's through the western and central part of the basin given the systems only a small window to ramp up...this season is reminding me every day of 2007...except we haven't had any Caribbean cruisers yet...the only type of system this year with the TUTT in place that probably stands a chance at becoming a major....at least right now.

[tolakram]

Did anyone see this guest posting from Dr. Philip Klotzbach?

Klotzbach on: Atlantic Hurricane Season Analysis

As an author on the Colorado State University (CSU) seasonal hurricane forecast, I read with interest the blog regarding “Global Tropical Cyclone Activity still at 30 year low” posted yesterday. I have started to receive questions from the media asking where the hurricanes in the Atlantic are. We forecast a very active season, calling for a total of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (compared with the climatological average of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes). Before I go into more detail describing why I think it is too early to think that this is a seasonal forecast bust, I wanted to briefly address the global storm component.

...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/10/k ... -analysis/

[TampaFl]

Very intersting read Tolakram.

To all who think the season is already a bust you need to read this.

Thanks for the link.

Robert