Global model runs discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Hey peeps, the GFS ensembles have a different picture than the new operational GFS by showing a hurricane in the long range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

This is WAAAAY out in the future though.......likely going to change in the next run, 14 days out in the future? That's a long time from now...

So.....now that's not significant Gatorcane? Model runs happen 4 times a day. Multiply that by 14. 56 model runs to see development. If your trying to imply that in 56 model runs we won't see development, please feel free.

I'll disagree.

[Ivanhater]

Hey peeps, the GFS ensembles have a different picture than the new operational GFS by showing a hurricane in the long range.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

This is WAAAAY out in the future though.......likely going to change in the next run, 14 days out in the future? That's a long time from now...

You have to read that in more depth. You usually don't see the ensembles showing a tropical cyclone that far in the future. Also this has been shown for the last couple of days on the ensembles which is very telling.

[South Texas Storms]

0z nogaps shows a pretty strong hurricane in the western gom in 180 hours. maybe heading for southern texas. another model shows the tropics heating up in the next week or two.

[KWT]

00z GFS shows only weak Vort regions...its backed right off from the stronger forecasts it had about 3-4 days ago...now the Vorts it does show maybe enough to get things cranking up anyway and it could just be the resolution of the model past 192hrs that is missing thier strength but its really not that impressive...

Something has to give surely!

[hurricaneCW]

It's a cause for concern when models don't show anything over a week out. The gfs shows nothing two weeks out, which ties in with the active part of the season. All signs are starting to point to a major bust in the hurricane/major hurricane and ACE department. I suppose 93L and 94L can become tropical storms, but that's all they can become.

[Scorpion]

Yea, its pretty bad that we are in mid-August and not even the long range GFS shows anything. This is rapidly becoming the biggest bust of a season in history

[gatorcane]

Models don't really have a heartbeat at the moment......as we head into mid to late August......a time where things typically really ramp up.

That said, something has got to give....and forecasters should hope that TD #5 and 93L get named. If those don't make it, that is only going to make hitting the numbers even harder....as there is no sign of a named system after these for quite a while it appears.

[Frank2]

Last night was a fine example - the local TWC forecast had "1/4 inch rain possible", well, we had 1/4 inch rain - in 15 minutes (for a total of 1/2 foot since Sunday), so that kind of short-term error speaks volumes when it comes to those long range models...

True, true, the busiest part of the season is still ahead, but it's really almost here, so we'll see, but so far we have:

TD 1/Alex (Category 2)
TD 2/Bonnie (weak TS)
TD 3 (weak)
TD 4/Colin (weak TS)
TD 5 (weak - so far)

looking at the list, perhaps someone forgot to pay the light bill since Alex (LOL), seriously though, perhaps it's due to the many folks who live on the Gulf Coast, have suffered so much already with the oil spill, and are praying that a hurricane doesn't come there way to make matters much worse (many in my office have rotated through the oil spill cleanup sites, so they know first hand)...

Frank

[Wx_Warrior]

Totally agree Frank.

GFS (i know) has been hinting at a L forming again...6z (which i take with a grain of salt along with 18z) keeps the L hanging around SELA and turning into something worth watching. This would be early next week.

[NOLA2010]

Last night was a fine example - the local TWC forecast had "1/4 inch rain possible", well, we had 1/4 inch rain - in 15 minutes (for a total of 1/2 foot since Sunday), so that kind of short-term error speaks volumes when it comes to those long range models...

True, true, the busiest part of the season is still ahead, but it's really almost here, so we'll see, but so far we have:

TD 1/Alex (Category 2)
TD 2/Bonnie (weak TS)
TD 3 (weak)
TD 4/Colin (weak TS)
TD 5 (weak - so far)

looking at the list, perhaps someone forgot to pay the light bill since Alex (LOL), seriously though, perhaps it's due to the many folks who live on the Gulf Coast, have suffered so much already with the oil spill, and are praying that a hurricane doesn't come there way to make matters much worse (many in my office have rotated through the oil spill cleanup sites, so they know first hand)...

Frank

TD2 didnt get a name and Bonnie was TD3

[Frank2]

Oops - you are correct (I didn't make the decaf coffee strong enough this morning - lol)...

I'm sure the CSU folks (see new topic on this board) are beginning to feel their ears sweat (lol), though they have to remember who's in charge - it ain't (isn't) CSU, that's for sure, thankfully...

Frank

[BigA]

18Z GFS is back to zealously active with a strong tropical storm forming in the northern Gulf in the 4-5 day timeframe (looks like a similar setup to 97 Danny). Then the long range gets really interesting, it shows the TUTT falling apart and the basin springing to life, (hurricane near northern lesser Antilles at 384) but I'll believe it when I see it.

[cycloneye]

Apart from what GFS shows with individual systems, is the pattern change what is the most important aspect that it shows from the 20th and beyond.

[lonelymike]

[quote="BigA"]18Z GFS is back to zealously active with a strong tropical storm forming in the northern Gulf in the 4-5 day timeframe (looks like a similar setup to 97 Danny). Then the long range gets really interesting, it shows the TUTT falling apart and the basin springing to life, (hurricane near northern lesser Antilles at 384) but I'll believe it when I see it.[/quote

18 GFS always shows something goofy and unrealistic it seems like.

[lonelymike]

What's the latest Euro and CMC show long range? Much more trustworthy models than the GFS.

[gatorcane]

Apart from what GFS shows with individual systems, is the pattern change what is the most important aspect that it shows from the 20th and beyond.

Without even looking at the GFS one would expect a pattern change sometime in the next few weeks. This deep troughiness and high shear just cannot continue into late August.......the long-wave pattern periodically changes.

[blp]

That is what I have been looking at for several days. I am not surprise that it jumped back on to it. I really don't think this negativity can last into September.

Apart from what GFS shows with individual systems, is the pattern change what is the most important aspect that it shows from the 20th and beyond.

[gatorcane]

While the models are generally not showing any significant development in the next 10 days or so I do notice that the wet-phase of the MJO looks to be arriving across the MDR starting in a few days and it looks to last for about 3 weeks or so....coincidentally, just in time for the most active part of the season which peaks climatologically on Sept. 10th. I'm surprised nobody has mentioned this MJO change.....

I really think we are very close to things picking up across the Atlantic.......it is still only Aug 11th, things can change very quickly in the tropics. For all we know, we will be tracking a long-tracker next week at this time moving across the Atlantic.

In fact I will go out on a limb and say we will have a decent hurricane to track by Aug 25th (within the next couple of weeks) and these posts of a "season is a bust" will be a thing of the past....I'm also a bit concerned that the long-wave pattern is going to be changing as well, with more ridging across the Atlantic as the troughiness has been around for the past couple of weeks and models are hinting at a change.....

[KWT]

The GFS/ECM both show something near about 40W in the 240hrs ranbge, the GFS is much stronger with a weaker upper high whilst the ECM only shiws a weak system but at 40W I'd imagine the ECM would eventually strengthen it further.

ECM also shows a weak low trying to develop down the east coast.

[barometerJane61]

Yea, its pretty bad that we are in mid-August and not even the long range GFS shows anything. This is rapidly becoming the biggest bust of a season in history

Sure seems like it.If no hurricane this month,I believe it is a sign this season is going to produce very few 'canes. Not good for those of us who enjoy watching them form