Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Looking at Africa...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST MON AUG 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING OTHER THAN TO
SHIFT FOCUS OF MAIN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.
SEVERAL SMS ISSUED FOR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS A SPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST COAST.
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR AND TJUA RADAR CORRELATED WELL WITH TDWR
SHOWING 30KTS NEAR 2KFT AND TJUA 25-30 AT 4KT. GUIDANCE POINTS TO
SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE GENERAL SOUTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND AS SUCH GENERALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAFS
SITES. HOWEVER...EXPECT VCSH ACROSS TNCM...TKPK AND USVI TAF SITES
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INDUCE THE FORMATION OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
MOST OF PR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS... WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wet weather will dominate today.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE AUG 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST PW ESTIMATES...ALONG WITH 00Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM YESTERDAY EVENING...INDICATE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTING
ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING PERCEPTIBLE WATER VAPOR ESTIMATE NOW
IN EXCEEDENCE OF 2.5 INCHES...AS THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION CONTINUES TO HELP DRAW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS AMPLE MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS...TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

SO FAR THIS MORNING...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. AS THE SUN RISES...EXPECT LOCALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THICKEST CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND SHOULD
NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH
EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN RESPONSE TO AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR 50 WEST...STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE DAY.

PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BEFORE SHARPLY DROPPING OFF OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
ACCORDING TO LATEST GFS...WITH TUTT LOW EVENTUALLY STARTING TO
FILL AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY FRIDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED
EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INDUCE THE
FORMATION OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MOST OF PR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS... WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN HIGHER TERRAIN. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1158 AM AST TUE AUG 10 2010

.UPDATE...A TUTT LOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS HELPING
TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND...
AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS THE VI FORM TIME TO TIME. THEN...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO
PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. CHANGES WERE DONE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW
ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INDUCE SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 10/18Z IN SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
136 PM AST TUE AUG 10 2010

PRC003-005-011-023-067-071-081-083-093-097-099-115-117-121-125-131-
102030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0330.100810T1736Z-100810T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-AGUADILLA PR-
AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-
ANASCO PR-
136 PM AST TUE AUG 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SABANA
GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...SAN SEBASTIAN...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS
MARIAS...LARES...CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 135 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
THOUGH 430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1812 6718 1836 6727 1841 6717 1851 6714
1849 6694 1831 6687 1812 6693

$$

MARTINEZ
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
119 PM AST TUE AUG 10 2010

PRC021-033-051-061-127-135-137-101815-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0327.000000T0000Z-100810T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
119 PM AST TUE AUG 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...DORADO...GUAYNABO...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND
TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 215 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 PM AST TUE AUG 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ALONG
60 NORTH WILL BECOME ELONGATED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY
AND EXTEND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....RETURNING TO HISPANIOLA
BY FRIDAY. THE TUTT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A SADDLE
BETWEEN A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF CANADA
AND HIGH PRESSURE THAT RIDGES DIRECTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON THE EAST. THE SADDLE SHIFTS NOT
VERY FAR WEST DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LIGHT FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SPLIT IN ITS
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BY THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 23 NORTH 53 WEST. IT
BUILDS SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE WEEK AND KEEPS FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST FLOW
OUT OF THE LOWER LATITUDE TROPICAL ATLANTIC MOVING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW...ADEQUATE HEATING OVER SOME
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TRIGGERED VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND ONE
MESO-CYCLONE WITH AT LEAST 50 KNOTS ACROSS ITS RADAR SIGNATURE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE DROPPED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
FEW LOCAL AREAS ACROSS ARECIBO AND UTUADO. OTHER AREAS FROM
MAYAGUEZ TO MOCA AND QUEBRADILLAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF INTO LIGHT OR MODERATE RAIN OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL ACTIVE ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA. CURRENTLY STILL CANNOT USE THE NAM DUE TO ITS
TENDENCY TO EXAGGERATE THE CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION IN THE
TROUGHS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE GOOD GUIDANCE OF A CONTINUED MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON
THE FRINGES OF THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...FAVORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE GFS
BRINGS DRY AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MOISTURE...THAT THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS IS ABUNDANT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN THE ITCZ. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK FROM SUCH PREVALENT SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT...WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS
IN MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...CANNOT FORESEE EITHER AN
EXTENDED SHOWER-FREE PERIOD OR...ON THE OTHER EXTREME...TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD AFFECT PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. THEREFORE LOOK FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOMETIMES STRONG...DUE TO THE HEATING...TO KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE ISLAND...FAVORING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN THIRD IN THE
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL INDUCE SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WILL LAST THROUGH 11/22Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS TIST/TISX AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS BEYOND 11/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS AND AT THIS
TIME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR WINDS OR SEAS
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

[abajan]

Heads up, peeps!
The latest TWO mentions a wave about 700 miles East of the Southern Windward Islands that has some potential (albeit a measly 10% chance) for development.

Let’s not be caught napping.

[FireBird]

Aaaaghh!! I had hoped the weekend would be dry but we've been thrown in the washer whole weekend till last night.
Floods, floods, and more floods. Things are desperate here folks. It's very bad.
Water from last night alone left some areas covered in 20feet of water! The fire service is using boats and dinghies (sp?) to evacuate people.
My family battled for hours in the cold rain last night to keep the water out and to handle other unexpected calamities that occurred in the onslaught of rain.
More shelters have been opened. More relief aid has been handed out. And at this moment, one of the largest water courses - located in a vast area under sea level - is at the brink, ready to burst its banks. the Met office has advised the public in its 7 pm newscast of the shelters open in those respective areas.
The public has also been advised of the upcoming wave which is at our doorstep. I am seriously concerned.
I don't know what's gonna happen here folks. I will keep you posted as I can. It's been a daily battle against the waters, and with such a robust wave, I just don't know what the outcome will be.......

[cycloneye]

Aaaaghh!! I had hoped the weekend would be dry but we've been thrown in the washer whole weekend till last night.
Floods, floods, and more floods. Things are desperate here folks. It's very bad.
Water from last night alone left some areas covered in 20feet of water! The fire service is using boats and dinghies (sp?) to evacuate people.
My family battled for hours in the cold rain last night to keep the water out and to handle other unexpected calamities that occurred in the onslaught of rain.
More shelters have been opened. More relief aid has been handed out. And at this moment, one of the largest water courses - located in a vast area under sea level - is at the brink, ready to burst its banks. the Met office has advised the public in its 7 pm newscast of the shelters open in those respective areas.
The public has also been advised of the upcoming wave which is at our doorstep. I am seriously concerned.
I don't know what's gonna happen here folks. I will keep you posted as I can. It's been a daily battle against the waters, and with such a robust wave, I just don't know what the outcome will be.......

Oh my, that is very bad what is occuring there. Stay safe and dry and hopefully,all turns for the better very soon.

[BZSTORM]

Aaaaghh!! I had hoped the weekend would be dry but we've been thrown in the washer whole weekend till last night.
Floods, floods, and more floods. Things are desperate here folks. It's very bad.
Water from last night alone left some areas covered in 20feet of water! The fire service is using boats and dinghies (sp?) to evacuate people.
My family battled for hours in the cold rain last night to keep the water out and to handle other unexpected calamities that occurred in the onslaught of rain.
More shelters have been opened. More relief aid has been handed out. And at this moment, one of the largest water courses - located in a vast area under sea level - is at the brink, ready to burst its banks. the Met office has advised the public in its 7 pm newscast of the shelters open in those respective areas.
The public has also been advised of the upcoming wave which is at our doorstep. I am seriously concerned.
I don't know what's gonna happen here folks. I will keep you posted as I can. It's been a daily battle against the waters, and with such a robust wave, I just don't know what the outcome will be.......

Firebird keep safe, wondering why this news hasn't hit the main news airways yet , I know if the world don't know it gets harder to get aid down the line.

[abajan]

Aaaaghh!! I had hoped the weekend would be dry but we've been thrown in the washer whole weekend till last night.
Floods, floods, and more floods. Things are desperate here folks. It's very bad.
Water from last night alone left some areas covered in 20feet of water! The fire service is using boats and dinghies (sp?) to evacuate people.
My family battled for hours in the cold rain last night to keep the water out and to handle other unexpected calamities that occurred in the onslaught of rain.
More shelters have been opened. More relief aid has been handed out. And at this moment, one of the largest water courses - located in a vast area under sea level - is at the brink, ready to burst its banks. the Met office has advised the public in its 7 pm newscast of the shelters open in those respective areas.
The public has also been advised of the upcoming wave which is at our doorstep. I am seriously concerned.
I don't know what's gonna happen here folks. I will keep you posted as I can. It's been a daily battle against the waters, and with such a robust wave, I just don't know what the outcome will be.......

20 feet of water?

[Boriken]

Wow. And just in case.

Floods can potentially increase the transmission of the following communicable diseases:

* Water-borne diseases, such as typhoid fever, cholera, leptospirosis and hepatitis A
* Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever, yellow fever, and West Nile Fever

More at WHO.

[msbee]

Aaaaghh!! I had hoped the weekend would be dry but we've been thrown in the washer whole weekend till last night.
Floods, floods, and more floods. Things are desperate here folks. It's very bad.
Water from last night alone left some areas covered in 20feet of water! The fire service is using boats and dinghies (sp?) to evacuate people.
My family battled for hours in the cold rain last night to keep the water out and to handle other unexpected calamities that occurred in the onslaught of rain.
More shelters have been opened. More relief aid has been handed out. And at this moment, one of the largest water courses - located in a vast area under sea level - is at the brink, ready to burst its banks. the Met office has advised the public in its 7 pm newscast of the shelters open in those respective areas.
The public has also been advised of the upcoming wave which is at our doorstep. I am seriously concerned.
I don't know what's gonna happen here folks. I will keep you posted as I can. It's been a daily battle against the waters, and with such a robust wave, I just don't know what the outcome will be.......

Firebird, I am so sorry to hear this. This is scary.
It seems amazing that when i was in Trinidad in March there was a drought and you were having fires on the island as a result. Now you have this!
please be safe . I am concerned for all the Trinis on your beautiful island.

here are some reports from Trinidad. it does not sound good at all.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml

Barbara

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is on tap today in PR and the VI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST WED AUG 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT. AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
ALONG 60 NORTH WILL BECOME ELONGATED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BY
TONIGHT AND EXTEND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE....RETURNING TO
HISPANIOLA BY LATE FRIDAY. THE TUTT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT AROUND
50 W WILL REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS BY FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MOST OF
THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LAST TWO DAYS. THEREFORE SATURATED SOILS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM...URBAN FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO OCCUR.

THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DIURNAL HEATING AND
MID TO UPPER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED. THE WAVE
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 11/16Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VI...TKPK AND TNCM IN A PASSING SHRA THROUGH 11/16Z. AFT
11/16Z...EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR BRIEF IFR CONDS ACROSS
TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ THROUGH 11/22Z. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN ESE
AT LESS THAN 15 KTS TODAY./SR

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER TO OCCUR.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
639 AM AST WED AUG 11 2010

PRC069-085-095-109-151-111230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0332.100811T1039Z-100811T1230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAS PIEDRAS PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-HUMACAO PR-YABUCOA PR-
639 AM AST WED AUG 11 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAS PIEDRAS...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...HUMACAO AND YABUCOA

* UNTIL 830 AM AST

* AT 634 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SOILS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED...AND LOCAL RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT RAPID RISES
IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS...THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA
THROUGH 830 AM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Here is a loop of the wave east of the Windwards. Lets watch it and see if it organizes,so dont sleep to this.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Hugo1989]

Here is a loop of the wave east of the Windwards. Lets watch it and see if it organizes,so dont sleep to this.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Este sistema en las pocas horas de la manana se ha visto mejor! independientemente su evolucion, crees que aun es muy temprano para saber que tan cerca pasara de nuestra isla?

[cycloneye]

Here is a loop of the wave east of the Windwards. Lets watch it and see if it organizes,so dont sleep to this.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Este sistema en las pocas horas de la manana se ha visto mejor! independientemente su evolucion, crees que aun es muy temprano para saber que tan cerca pasara de nuestra isla?

Es todavia temprano para saber eso y mas si esto se va a organizar.

Is still early to say if it will get closer to PR and is early to say if it is going to organize into a Tropical Cyclone.