ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[MGC]

ULL is kicking off some healthy convection just to my south.....ULL is keep the TD in check for now..thankfully. As the ULL pulls away the TD might have an opportunity to intensify later today or tonight. The upper conditions only need to improve slightly as the depression is sitting over quite warm water. 5am track is right over me. Even if the depression remains weak it looks like areas of the gulf coast are going to get some healthy rainfall totals.......MGC

[JonathanBelles]

Seems to me like there is a small spin very evident due west of Tampa on the NWS Tampa long range radar, and its showing some decent convection on satellite. Also seems like TD5 is waking up.

[ronjon]

Here is why TD5 probably will get stronger and slow down as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Both the GFS and NAM forecast an upper level anticyclone centered near the mid-gulf coast in 24 hrs. Upper air conditions dramatically improve and steering collaspes.

[sphelps8681]

One of our local Mets just said that it will be a TS by Thursday and make landfall by Friday.

I believe at this point it is barely a TD.

[DTWright]

The NHC discussion mentions that the core is still well defined and that it should become somewhat better organized today as conditions become more favorable. They also mention some of the models being bullish on intensification with a slowdown and/or stall prior to landfall. Does look like landfall may be somewhere between NOLA and Mobile.

Definitely something to watch very closely even with the way it looks this morning.

[ColinDelia]

They also mention some of the models being bullish on intensification

The 5 am says the opposite.

"NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER THAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY"

Yeah, It's early in the morning (US)

[cycloneye]

From the 7 AM CDT advisory:

SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.

[Thunder44]

From the 7am CDT advisory. NHC might be ready to pull the plug:

SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.

Winds down to 30mph too.

[DTWright]

Okay it's early but . . . . THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL

986 & 968 are significantly stronger than what it is right now

[JonathanBelles]

I think the NHC could be looking in the wrong area for a center.

[DTWright]

Wow could this be the next one in the line of duds this year? Strange year so far.

[ColinDelia]

Wright, you're right!

[shell70]

Living along the coast I have seen storms weaken and storms explode in the GOM. I have seen them turn to the right just before they hit land and spare certain towns (Fairhope). Anytime there is a disturbance in the GOM watching it is not a bad thing and praying that it does not develop is a good thing. I think it is going to be a rain maker and when it rains here some of the local rivers (Fish River) etc flood. I will spending most of my day at the Bay with my elderly grandmother so I will get to see it first hand. She lives across the street from Mobile Bay so it is going to be an interesting day. I just hope that I don't have to move her because that would not be a good thing.

My personal opinion is that this storm is going to be a rain maker, a little wind but sometimes our afternoon storms have more wind, flooding, and a chance of tornadoes spun off of the feeder bands.

[ColinDelia]

Interesting GFDL intensity forecast BTW.

0 hours. 1007 mb. 28 kts
6 hours. 1004 mb. 49 kts
12 hours. 1004 mb. 50 kts
18 hours. 1004 mb. 47 kts
24 hours. 1001 mb. 46 kts
30 hours. 1000 mb. 41 kts
36 hours. 997 mb. 44 kts (Near New Orleans)
42 hours. 995 mb. 45 kts (Near New Orleans)
48 hours. 993 mb. 36 kts (Near New orleans)
54 hours. 993 mb. 46 kts (Little North of New Orleans)

Big wildcard is if this stalls out over water instead of on the coast.
Or even if on the the coast or slightly inland this MIGHT be a huge rainmaker.

[DTWright]

Living along the coast I have seen storms weaken and storms explode in the GOM. I have seen them turn to the right just before they hit land and spare certain towns (Fairhope). Anytime there is a disturbance in the GOM watching it is not a bad thing and praying that it does not develop is a good thing. I think it is going to be a rain maker and when it rains here some of the local rivers (Fish River) etc flood. I will spending most of my day at the Bay with my elderly grandmother so I will get to see it first hand. She lives across the street from Mobile Bay so it is going to be an interesting day. I just hope that I don't have to move her because that would not be a good thing.

My personal opinion is that this storm is going to be a rain maker, a little wind but sometimes our afternoon storms have more wind, flooding, and a chance of tornadoes spun off of the feeder bands.

Hope you will not have to move her either, and I know what you mean about the storms. I live in West Mobile, and grew up in Daphne. Have been here for just over 50 years. My entire life. I will keep an eye on this one until it is gone completely.

[ColinDelia]

I have a REALLY difficult time believing this follows the GFDL and gets to 49 kts in just 6 hours though.
But I think it is a really interesting storm to follow especially regarding where/if it stalls somewhere and what that means for intensification and rainfall.

[chrisnnavarre]

Personally I think this will get just a little stronger before landfall..(as it moves north-northwest)... this afternoon I think we'll see the convection build in and pressures really drop. Sometimes these systems have a tendency to rapidly intensify over the open warm waters of the Gulf. I wouldn't pull the plug just too soon if I was the NHC.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, that ULL did a number on TD5.

At most some gusty thunderstorm type winds and some heavy rain for the upper gulf coast, this is running out of time!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have to admit I am sort o shocked to get up this morning and see our rd is on life support. Really thought it would have organized overnight closer to a tropical storm. Hopefully it will continue to degenerate and be like Bonnie when and if it comes through here, which was nothing.
Wxman are you ready to call this one dead or do you give it a slight chance to reform under the convection west of Tampa?

[HURAKAN]

not much to say