ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[LAwxrgal]

I have to admit I am sort o shocked to get up this morning and see our rd is on life support. Really thought it would have organized overnight closer to a tropical storm. Hopefully it will continue to degenerate and be like Bonnie when and if it comes through here, which was nothing.
Wxman are you ready to call this one dead or do you give it a slight chance to reform under the convection west of Tampa?

Agreed. And I'm glad to see it is on life support. Just give us increased rain chances, no major disruptions. This morning the air is really thick and there are dark clouds to my south and east.

[PTrackerLA]

It sure has become less organized overnight. I can't find the LLC looking at the first visibles. Looks the ULL wins yet again...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2010081112, , BEST, 0, 275N, 864W, 25, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Still a TD.

[Steve]

Pretty cool to watch the evolution. A couple of days ago when we were talking about the possibility of either a trailing ULL or a hybrid, both possibilities were wrong. TD #5 is the trailing feature. Woke up to some thunderstorms this morning which appears to be some entrained energy into the upper low (see radar below and water vapor below that):

Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/so ... y_loop.php

Floater Water Vapor:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

It looks pretty sickly, but it doesn't look as bad as things indicated earlier this morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

I doubt this makes TS, but you never know. A nice burst could happen. Meanwhile, it looks like a rainy day on the Gulf Coast.

[tailgater]

An eddy or small LLc south of Panama City.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

As I am sure many would agree, I'll take 6-8 o these kind of storms in the gulf every year over just the chance of one major hurricane making landfall along the coast.

[HURAKAN]

funny how the theme changed ... from people predicting a moderate/strong ts or hurricane to complete dissipation ... in a matter of hours

[Stormcenter]

I just don't see this dissapating. There is a lot of energy out there. IMO

funny how the theme changed ... from people predicting a moderate/strong ts or hurricane to complete dissipation ... in a matter of hours

[hurricaneCW]

funny how the theme changed ... from people predicting a moderate/strong ts or hurricane to complete dissipation ... in a matter of hours

It's the plague of ULL's that is 2010. I'm starting to think we won't even see a major hurricane at this rate. Any storm that looks promising gets torn apart by an ULL. It's almost mid August too or the peak of the season (August 15-September 15) and models are quiet.

[Steve]

>>It's the plague of ULL's that is 2010. I'm starting to think we won't even see a major hurricane at this rate. Any storm that looks promising gets torn apart by an ULL. It's almost mid August too or the peak of the season (August 15-September 15) and models are quiet.

IMHO, the main globals have done an overall pretty good job with showing us generally weak systems. While a lot of posters jump on the potential, ultimately potential doesn't buy you dinner. Summer pattern has not yet sufficiently flipped yet to support any big dogs. Time will tell.

[HURAKAN]

August 11 and the gulf can't deliver ... I'm missing something.

[Stormcenter]

Well at least not yet but I'm not complaining.

By way TD5 is still alive and kicking somewhat.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

August 11 and the gulf can't deliver ... I'm missing something.

[cycloneye]

August 11 and the gulf can't deliver ... I'm missing something.

More than that, the Atlantic,but that is another topic that we can continue to discuss at Talking Tropics.

[LAwxrgal]

They could all dissipate as far as I'm concerned. I'm all stormed out after the big hits of '05 and '08.

[ColinDelia]

The best track position is west of the biggest area of convection

[DTWright]

Which means whatever it has to offer, as is usually the norm, will mostly affect those to the East of the center.

Based on that satellite loop though the storms are definitely refiring again

[JonathanBelles]

Image from Bay News 9

This is where I would put the center, although I do agree satellite doesnt show any center.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

South of Apalachicola, if there is a center to this thing. In my opinion.

[Stormcenter]

If you speed up this loop you can what looks like the center.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[tolakram]

If you speed up this loop you can what looks like the center.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

That's only the mid and upper levels though. Looks like a MLC, but the LLC is well north of that, if there is one.