ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
I think this one is a goner. It might try to regroup tomorrow, but it will probably run out of time before it has the opportunity. I would look elsewhere for Danielle.
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fact789 wrote:http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/9596/al081110a.png
Image from Bay News 9
This is where I would put the center, although I do agree satellite doesnt show any center.
If you look at the surface obs, I would think the weak center is @ 26.5 and 87.5, just a rough guessimate I really don't if there is one now.
Go to this site and make a square over the GOM.
http://madis.noaa.gov/sfc_display/
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Stormcenter wrote:Well at least not yet but I'm not complaining.
By way TD5 is still alive and kicking somewhat.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12HURAKAN wrote:August 11 and the gulf can't deliver ... I'm missing something.
I feel better for you guys when things like these happen but based on climatology, this is prime territory for development at this time of the year.
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tailgater wrote:fact789 wrote:http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/9596/al081110a.png
Image from Bay News 9
This is where I would put the center, although I do agree satellite doesnt show any center.
If you look at the surface obs, I would think the weak center is @ 26.5 and 87.5, just a rough guessimate I really don't if there is one now.
Go to this site and make a square over the GOM.
http://madis.noaa.gov/sfc_display/
There really isn't one. Its a broad low. Trying to say the center is "here" or "there" is futile. All you can do is find a general center for the gyre....which if this thing does develop further...the center of the gyre won't be where the final center firms up. If it doesn't develop...then it really doesn't matter where you put the "center." You can put it near 28/85 or 27/87...or wherever...it doesn't matter.
It is an elongated low that stretches from 26/90 - 28.5/84...it has no "center" as of right now...
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gatorcane wrote:Let's face it, if TD #5 were out in the middle of the Atlantic somewhere it would be an invest right now (if that) and nothing more....it looks pathetic.
93L looks better at this point and it's still just an invest
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HURAKAN wrote:gatorcane wrote:Let's face it, if TD #5 were out in the middle of the Atlantic somewhere it would be an invest right now (if that) and nothing more....it looks pathetic.
93L looks better at this point and it's still just an invest
I think I said something yesterday about if the NHC upgraded 94L...they would have to apologize to 93L.
I do have to admit though...I did think it would go. It had a decent center with thunderstorms around it yesterday afternoon. Once I saw how broad the low had become last night (there was a 1MB pressure change over a 350 mile distance)...I began to have doubts.
Now its only hope is to fire off some convection and spin up a new LLC. If convection can sustain itself near 28/85...then that will be the new center...but that won't leave it much time.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
Gatorcane, have to give you credit where it is due. You said last night this was just like Bonnie and it would fall apart and really nobody agreed with you saying give it time it will get stronger and more organized tomorrow. Well tomorrow is here and it is worse off than yesterday. Good call.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Gatorcane, have to give you credit where it is due. You said last night this was just like Bonnie and it would fall apart and really nobody agreed with you saying give it time it will get stronger and more organized tomorrow. Well tomorrow is here and it is worse off than yesterday. Good call.
I know it looks that way, but the fat lady ain't sang yet
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>>I feel better for you guys when things like these happen but based on climatology, this is prime territory for development at this time of the year.
I was wondering about this earlier. How many prime (major) storms have we had on or before August 11th that were in the Gulf or made US Landfall? I can only come up with Audrey (57?) and Dennis '05. Charley '04 was around the 13th or 14th, so it seems like we're just not there yet as things are still too messy as is evidenced by TD #5.
Inch-Inch and a half so far this morning. Looks like the only issue with TD #5 is that it's going to drench most of us on or near the Northern Gulf Coast.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
I was wondering about this earlier. How many prime (major) storms have we had on or before August 11th that were in the Gulf or made US Landfall? I can only come up with Audrey (57?) and Dennis '05. Charley '04 was around the 13th or 14th, so it seems like we're just not there yet as things are still too messy as is evidenced by TD #5.
Inch-Inch and a half so far this morning. Looks like the only issue with TD #5 is that it's going to drench most of us on or near the Northern Gulf Coast.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
Last edited by Steve on Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN wrote:gatorcane wrote:Let's face it, if TD #5 were out in the middle of the Atlantic somewhere it would be an invest right now (if that) and nothing more....it looks pathetic.
93L looks better at this point and it's still just an invest
Of course they don't need to rush anything on 93L as it is no threat to land.
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Steve wrote:>>I feel better for you guys when things like these happen but based on climatology, this is prime territory for development at this time of the year.
I was wondering about this earlier. How many prime (major) storms have we had on or before August 11th that were in the Gulf or made US Landfall? I can only come up with Audrey (57?) and Dennis '05. Charley '04 was around the 13th or 14th, so it seems like we're just not there yet as things are still too messy as is evidenced by TD #5.
Inch-Inch and a half so far this morning. Looks like the only issue with TD #5 is that it's going to drench most of us on or near the Northern Gulf Coast.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
I was not talking necessarily major hurricanes, but ts/hurricane development in general.
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Maybe I just don't remember but these
negative (dry air, ULL, etc.) conditions happening so often in the GOM
and the tropics in general so far this season seem unusual. With Bonnie we
could use the excuse it was still "only" July but with TD 5 it's almost
the middle of August now. Yeah yeah things can change
but I honestly don't see it happening anytime soon anywhere. Now watch
after saying that all hell will break lose next week.
Hey just my 2 cents.
negative (dry air, ULL, etc.) conditions happening so often in the GOM
and the tropics in general so far this season seem unusual. With Bonnie we
could use the excuse it was still "only" July but with TD 5 it's almost
the middle of August now. Yeah yeah things can change
but I honestly don't see it happening anytime soon anywhere. Now watch
after saying that all hell will break lose next week.

Hey just my 2 cents.
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Steve wrote:>>I feel better for you guys when things like these happen but based on climatology, this is prime territory for development at this time of the year.
I was wondering about this earlier. How many prime (major) storms have we had on or before August 11th that were in the Gulf or made US Landfall? I can only come up with Audrey (57?) and Dennis '05. Charley '04 was around the 13th or 14th, so it seems like we're just not there yet as things are still too messy as is evidenced by TD #5.
Inch-Inch and a half so far this morning. Looks like the only issue with TD #5 is that it's going to drench most of us on or near the Northern Gulf Coast.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
Not too many for sure. I'll add Allen
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion
for all of those of you with tropical ...depression...watch what is fixing to roll off of africa, l believe it will become our ramp up
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