What is the future of this season?

[hurricaneCW]

I know people say October and November is active in a La Nina and I don't doubt that it is, we can't bank on those months to produce. Even if something comes out of those month, it shouldn't be more than 1-2 storms. The 2nd half of August and September have to deliver or this season is in jeopardy. The models don't show anything big in the next 7-14 days. 2 weeks from now, it will be past August 20th, the supposed deadline of the later active seasons in the past such as 1998/1999. If we don't see a hurricane by that time, then this season is in jeopardy.

[gatorcane]

I know people say October and November is active in a La Nina and I don't doubt that it is, we can't bank on those months to produce. Even if something comes out of those month, it shouldn't be more than 1-2 storms. The 2nd half of August and September have to deliver or this season is in jeopardy. The models don't show anything big in the next 7-14 days. 2 weeks from now, it will be past August 20th, the supposed deadline of the later active seasons in the past such as 1998/1999. If we don't see a hurricane by that time, then this season is in jeopardy.

Typically by Sept. 20th, the Cape Verde season is largely over for the U.S. as troughs start to dig. Sometimes, systems can make it to Southern FL after that time...from the east...but chances do go down considerably. That is just about 5 weeks from now.......

But in La Nina seasons, you have to look to the WCAR for systems that get pulled into troughs, so I'm expecting October to be an interesting month this year.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, that's why the thread was created, because there have been excellent arguments on both sides......But with the storm #5 more than likely not forming in the gulf today, it puts us even a little bit more behind..... I thought we would have Danielle for sure today.

[hurricaneCW]

If we can't get a TD to ramp up in the gulf, then I don't know what to tell you. What a sad 1st half of the season. Thank god for Alex or else all hope would have been lost.

[hurricaneCW]

If this season suffers a major bust which is very possible, most forecasts and forecasters will lose total credibility with the public. Next time they predict an active season, nobody will notice. It will be sort of like "the boy who cried wolf". So an inactive season could be both a positive and a negative.

[Bocadude85]

Last time I checked it was August 11th and we have already had 3 named storms... 2004 didnt start ramping up until August and we all know how that season turned out. If September 20th comes around and we still have not reached 10 named storms then everyone can say the season forecasts will likely be a bust but until then how about everyone sit back relax and see how the season plays out.

[ConvergenceZone]

If this season suffers a major bust which is very possible, most forecasts and forecasters will lose total credibility with the public. Next time they predict an active season, nobody will notice. It will be sort of like "the boy who cried wolf". So an inactive season could be both a positive and a negative.

HurricaneCWM, what we are trying to do on this thread is mention WHY we
think it might be less active. I disagree with you in that I don't think this season will
be a "bust" just not a super active year.....

I think it's too early for us to say though, but that's why we created this thread to keep track
of how we are doing....

Those who think it will still be very active DO make some good arguments, we need to be
fair here....

[cycloneye]

I dont know if any of you see it,but I just saw Brian Norcross at TWC explaining why the actual not favorable Atlantic will turn favorable in the next two weeks. He mentioned that the upper lows will be minimal compared with now and high pressure will dominate the Tropical Atlantic.

[MGC]

In two weeks August will just about be over....I don't see anything that is going to spin up in the next few days. There are still ULL across the Atlantic so upper level conditions are mostly hostile across the basin...looks to me like an El Nino instead of La Nina. Things had better get cooking in a hurry or big time bust in the forecast numbers.....MGC

[tolakram]

In two weeks August will just about be over....I don't see anything that is going to spin up in the next few days. There are still ULL across the Atlantic so upper level conditions are mostly hostile across the basin...looks to me like an El Nino instead of La Nina. Things had better get cooking in a hurry or big time bust in the forecast numbers.....MGC

Forget the forecast numbers, they are silly to begin with, numbers is all about luck anyway. I start to get genuinely curious on the 20th and start to really wonder what was missed if we get to the end of the month without anything big.

[KWT]

The only thing that appears to be a downer is the general instablity is quite a bit lower then average which someone noticed on easternuswx. Its a good point really and may help to explain why sometimes systems in decent conditions haven't quite managed to develop in time (systems like 95L for example)

[Ptarmigan]

To think this season is a bust is foolish, dangerous, and irresponsible. A season is only declared a bust when it is over. We are still in the middle of the season. This type of thinking leads to complacency and people let their guard down. They think this season is not going to be active, which means we should be okay. Active or not or early or late starting, we can have really devastating seasons. Case in point, 1961, 1998, and 2004. All were late starters that were devastating and deadly. A less active season like 1900 and 1992, which produced the Great Galveston Hurricane and Andrew. Both were El Nino years. People would of written those seasons off. Guess what, if a massive hurricanes comes barreling towards to your area, people are not prepared, they are going to be in a pain of their life.

[ConvergenceZone]

I do wish people would stop saying that everyone who thinks the season won't be super active means that we are calling the season a "bust" or a "dud" etc....


One thing I never quite understood and that I've also noticed in past seasons is that if someone makes a claim that they think the season will be super active(even if the weather service doesn't call for it), then it's okay, but if someone says that they don't think the season is going to be active, then they get hammered...... I'm fine with comments that are on either extreme, as long as they give a reason why they believe so....
To be honest, I think some people really want a super active season so bad, that they tend to get angry and defensive if someone says something to the contrary.

Ptarmigan nobody said that we may not have one or two super strong horrible hurricanes slam into the USA. Most of us here are talking in terms of "quantity" because the predictions have been focused on "high quantity".....

[SoupBone]

I do wish people would stop saying that everyone who thinks the season won't be super active means that we are calling the season a "bust" or a "dud" etc....


One thing I never quite understood and that I've also noticed in past seasons is that if someone makes a claim that they think the season will be super active(even if the weather service doesn't call for it), then it's okay, but if someone says that they don't think the season is going to be active, then they get hammered...... I'm fine with comments that are on either extreme, as long as they give a reason why they believe so....
To be honest, I think some people really want a super active season so bad, that they tend to get angry and defensive if someone says something to the contrary.

Well said. I blame it on how passionate we are about this. It still doesn't excuse some of the vitriol spewed toward people who don't think this season is going to be a mammoth.

[gatorcane]

I can tell you that I am more concerned about Sept-Oct than August. As KWT mentions, La Ninas do traditionally start late but when they start they start with a bang and can breed some dangerous Caribbean systems (October).

For the near future, I see the wet-phase of the MJO moving through the Caribbean and Atlantic starting a few days from now and lasting for about 3 weeks or so. I really do see an uptick in activity especially in about 10-14 days or so. Multiple strong systems are likely to form at the same time as well. Posts about how dead the season are will quickly be forgotten.....

[StormClouds63]

The issue of seasonal forecasts is up for discussion ... perhaps these numbers should not be disclosed to the public. Loss of credibility can lead to loss of lives if the public perceives seasonal forecasts as useless or worthless. With the start of school and the poor economy, many folks have already spent emergency money saved for hurricane supplies or evacuations (e.g. motel reservations).

The future of this season? As I've mentioned previously, if the next positive phase of MJO does not result in a more active phase, then what we've seen so far is the story for 2010. I enjoy tracking systems, speculating strength and path of the storms, and discussing it with others. Bonnie, Colin, and TD-5 don't leave much to discuss ... except shear and ULL.

[Steve]

>>The issue of seasonal forecasts is up for discussion ... perhaps these numbers should not be disclosed to the public. Loss of credibility can lead to loss of lives if the public perceives seasonal forecasts as useless or worthless. With the start of school and the poor economy, many folks have already spent emergency money saved for hurricane supplies or evacuations (e.g. motel reservations).

Yeah, I read earlier where someone posted that. Obviously, the part-Libertarian in me bristles at the thought. Information is information. In a free society you can't tell someone what to do with it or how to process it. For instance, I can't help that people love McDonald's, enjoy the Wal-Mart Shopping experience or emulate Jersey Shore and reality television drama in their actual lives. They shouldn't ban donuts because some people get fat by eating them like they are jellybeans,or alcohol because some people abuse it. You can inform them they're unhealthy, but if they're not going to listen, it's on them. Same goes with the idea of too many instances of crying wolf. It's on them. If someone allows them self to be lulled into a false sense of security, it's gotta be on them. They tell us to have our plans in place. If people ignore the warnings and recommendations, it's gotta be on them. IMHO, but I think I'm right on this one.

[Stormcenter]

I agree with your post.

Anything coming off the African coast is at least two weeks away from the U.S. mainland and
I really don't see anything impressive out there. In addition as many have mentioned already
conditions are horrible all across the tropics. It looks more like October/November then August.
I still think some more will pop up but not 18 named systems. Right now that is a major stretch. IMO

In two weeks August will just about be over....I don't see anything that is going to spin up in the next few days. There are still ULL across the Atlantic so upper level conditions are mostly hostile across the basin...looks to me like an El Nino instead of La Nina. Things had better get cooking in a hurry or big time bust in the forecast numbers.....MGC

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with your post.

Anything coming off the African coast is at least two weeks away from the U.S. mainland and
I really don't see anything impressive out there. In addition as many have mentioned already
conditions are horrible all across the tropics. It looks more like October/November then August.
I still think some more will pop up but not 18 named systems. Right now that is a major stretch. IMO

In two weeks August will just about be over....I don't see anything that is going to spin up in the next few days. There are still ULL across the Atlantic so upper level conditions are mostly hostile across the basin...looks to me like an El Nino instead of La Nina. Things had better get cooking in a hurry or big time bust in the forecast numbers.....MGC

Excellent post you made Stormcenter. Yea, as I glance towards the horizon, I don't see anything that holds promise. Just a couple of speculative but unpromising waves....So I think we are clear for at least 7 days which will take us to August 19th. Perhaps between August 19th and August 31 we'll get 1 storm, with an outside chance at 2 storms......But nothing on the horizon now....

[hurricaneCW]

A lot of forecasters are really banking on a ramp up starting August 20th. The Atlantic would literally have to turn on like a light switch in order to meet their expectations. It's already August 12th, we're very close to the heart of the season and there is nothing on the horizon. I wonder what excuse the forecasters will have when it's August 20-25th and everything is as still as the night.