BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912010.invest
FSTDA
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201008111759
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2010, DB, O, 2010081118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912010
EP, 91, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 109N, 942W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2010081100, , BEST, 0, 110N, 948W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2010081106, , BEST, 0, 111N, 954W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2010081112, , BEST, 0, 113N, 962W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2010081118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 970W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EPAC : Ex INVEST 91E
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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EPAC : Ex INVEST 91E
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HURAKAN
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160
WHXX01 KMIA 111802
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1802 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912010) 20100811 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100811 1800 100812 0600 100812 1800 100813 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 97.0W 12.2N 97.0W 13.2N 96.6W 14.4N 96.4W
BAMD 11.5N 97.0W 11.6N 97.9W 12.1N 98.4W 12.6N 98.7W
BAMM 11.5N 97.0W 12.3N 97.5W 13.5N 97.7W 14.7N 98.0W
LBAR 11.5N 97.0W 12.1N 98.2W 13.1N 99.5W 14.4N 101.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100813 1800 100814 1800 100815 1800 100816 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 96.8W 18.6N 99.3W 21.3N 103.7W 23.1N 109.5W
BAMD 13.0N 99.1W 14.0N 100.1W 14.8N 101.6W 15.5N 103.8W
BAMM 15.9N 98.8W 18.2N 101.9W 20.1N 107.2W 20.6N 113.3W
LBAR 15.7N 103.0W 19.0N 107.4W 23.0N 112.0W 26.2N 115.4W
SHIP 44KTS 55KTS 57KTS 51KTS
DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 33KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 95.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 94.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KMIA 111802
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1802 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912010) 20100811 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100811 1800 100812 0600 100812 1800 100813 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 97.0W 12.2N 97.0W 13.2N 96.6W 14.4N 96.4W
BAMD 11.5N 97.0W 11.6N 97.9W 12.1N 98.4W 12.6N 98.7W
BAMM 11.5N 97.0W 12.3N 97.5W 13.5N 97.7W 14.7N 98.0W
LBAR 11.5N 97.0W 12.1N 98.2W 13.1N 99.5W 14.4N 101.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100813 1800 100814 1800 100815 1800 100816 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 96.8W 18.6N 99.3W 21.3N 103.7W 23.1N 109.5W
BAMD 13.0N 99.1W 14.0N 100.1W 14.8N 101.6W 15.5N 103.8W
BAMM 15.9N 98.8W 18.2N 101.9W 20.1N 107.2W 20.6N 113.3W
LBAR 15.7N 103.0W 19.0N 107.4W 23.0N 112.0W 26.2N 115.4W
SHIP 44KTS 55KTS 57KTS 51KTS
DSHP 44KTS 34KTS 33KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 95.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 94.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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lester
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FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.
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This system doesn't look too bad right now, could well end up forming but the models have backed off with this one at the moment.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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somethingfunny
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There's alot of spread in the BAM suite models which suggests that the upper level environment isn't going to be very conducive for strengthening - different directions of wind flow at different levels of the atmosphere imply a sheared environment.
But it does look good right now, and the models seem to be sniffing a weakness in the ridge. This could be one for Mexico to watch, even if it ends up being mainly a rainmaker.
But it does look good right now, and the models seem to be sniffing a weakness in the ridge. This could be one for Mexico to watch, even if it ends up being mainly a rainmaker.
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srainhoutx
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
Sunset...The Euro has suggested a Baja threat. We shall see...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
00z Best Track
EP, 91, 2010081200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 972W, 25, 1007, DB
EP, 91, 2010081200, , BEST, 0, 123N, 972W, 25, 1007, DB
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HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 120800
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751Z AUG 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 120800)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 96.7W TO 14.1N 101.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 98.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130800Z.
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 12 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU AUG 12 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
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Floyd 1999 · Irene 2011 · Sandy 2012
This one is getting there but will it make it before it hits land which is looking increasingly possible at the moment.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Looks like even if the system doesn't make landfall its going to be close enough to probably somewhat disrupt this system...though that obviously doesn't preclude development!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
Up to 80%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 12 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 75
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 12 2010
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 75
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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HURAKAN
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Re: EPAC : INVEST 91E
082
WHXX01 KMIA 130134
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0134 UTC FRI AUG 13 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912010) 20100813 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100813 0000 100813 1200 100814 0000 100814 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 100.6W 16.9N 101.2W 18.0N 102.1W 18.9N 103.0W
BAMD 15.7N 100.6W 16.9N 101.7W 18.0N 102.7W 18.8N 104.0W
BAMM 15.7N 100.6W 17.0N 101.5W 18.1N 102.5W 19.0N 103.9W
LBAR 15.7N 100.6W 17.2N 101.9W 18.8N 103.5W 20.3N 105.4W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 37KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100815 0000 100816 0000 100817 0000 100818 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 104.4W 20.9N 108.1W 21.8N 113.1W 22.3N 118.0W
BAMD 19.5N 105.9W 20.3N 110.7W 20.2N 115.9W 20.3N 120.9W
BAMM 19.7N 105.7W 20.6N 110.4W 20.7N 115.5W 20.6N 120.5W
LBAR 22.0N 107.5W 25.6N 111.2W 28.7N 113.8W 30.3N 115.2W
SHIP 57KTS 59KTS 50KTS 42KTS
DSHP 36KTS 38KTS 29KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 100.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 99.2W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KMIA 130134
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0134 UTC FRI AUG 13 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912010) 20100813 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100813 0000 100813 1200 100814 0000 100814 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 100.6W 16.9N 101.2W 18.0N 102.1W 18.9N 103.0W
BAMD 15.7N 100.6W 16.9N 101.7W 18.0N 102.7W 18.8N 104.0W
BAMM 15.7N 100.6W 17.0N 101.5W 18.1N 102.5W 19.0N 103.9W
LBAR 15.7N 100.6W 17.2N 101.9W 18.8N 103.5W 20.3N 105.4W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 37KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100815 0000 100816 0000 100817 0000 100818 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 104.4W 20.9N 108.1W 21.8N 113.1W 22.3N 118.0W
BAMD 19.5N 105.9W 20.3N 110.7W 20.2N 115.9W 20.3N 120.9W
BAMM 19.7N 105.7W 20.6N 110.4W 20.7N 115.5W 20.6N 120.5W
LBAR 22.0N 107.5W 25.6N 111.2W 28.7N 113.8W 30.3N 115.2W
SHIP 57KTS 59KTS 50KTS 42KTS
DSHP 36KTS 38KTS 29KTS 21KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.7N LONCUR = 100.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 99.2W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 97.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Its very close to land indeed, I'd imagine it'll probably end up just moving inland from the looks of things.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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