ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Florida1118]

I guess Daniele isnt coming...and we thought we would be on Earl. Oh 2010.

[PTrackerLA]

On to the next sheared depression...


2010

[KWT]

Well the models have done a superb job on this one thats for sure!

[tailgater]

TD 5, impressive at 850mbs but no real focal point.

[Ikester]

So has this officially 'dissipated'?

[HURAKAN]

So has this officially 'dissipated'?

not officially but very likely at 5 pm

[Dean4Storms]

The area around 85w 27.5N is beginning to look suspicious to me on visible sat. loops.

[tailgater]

It's still VERY broad right now but IMHO it is a little tighter than it looked this morning. I'm not writing it off just yet. The area south of the Miss. delta then elongated ENE.

[Stormcenter]

Agree.

The area around 85w 27.5N is beginning to look suspicious to me on visible sat. loops.

[HURAKAN]

If TD #5 is alive, it's in this area

[Aric Dunn]

TORNADO WARNING IF FLORIDA..

[Ikester]

Perhaps 60 miles south of Destin, FL?

[N2Storms]

[quote="HURAKAN"][img]http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/9378/goes19552010223ynsue6.jpg[/img]

If TD #5 is alive, it's in this area[/quote]



Excerpt from this afternoon's AFD from Tallahassee:

.SYNOPSIS...LOOKING AT RECENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND BUOY DATA...IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THERE IS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NW
ACROSS OUR SWRN MARINE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT BUOY 42039 HAVE
BACKED ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE N AND THEN WENT CALM. IN A STORM
RELATIVE SENSE...THIS WOULD BE A W WIND. WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS A
REFORMED CENTER OF TD 5...

[KWT]

There is something there but its really struggling, once again it wouldn't be upgraded in the first place so not sure why it should remain a TD either...its gotta work both ways IMO...

The models are interestingly still trying to shunt this back south again.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressure is low over a broad area but there is some heavier thunderstorm activity on the South eastern side of the circulation where the vorticity is highest.

It should remain a TD tonight, and actually we have seen less organized systems become tropical storms but that is a slow process. If the models that have this stalling near the coast under weak shear are correct than the possibility still exists for a TS by Friday.

[Stormcenter]

Yes 85w 27.5n is definitely the area to watch. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

I think the LLC is just SSW of Destin about 100 miles looking at this visible and the buoy out there has winds running under 10kts which looks to be just about right under the center.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

[Aric Dunn]

yeah I mentioned this earlier that we would like start see some eddy's form and rotate around and if it has any hope of surviving then one of them will have to take over which would require convection which we just dont really have so expect more eddy's to come a go.

The red circle is a pretty decent eddy at the moment and the yellow circle is much weaker ..

[Dean4Storms]

If TD #5 is alive, it's in this area

Go look at that in a loop at the area about 100 miles South of Destin and notice the distinct LL swirl!!!

[HURAKAN]

Dean, that was the idea when I posted the image!!

I did look at several loops!