ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Its just an eddy at the moment there is another eddy farther to the SW both circulating around the "mean" center that is not moving very fast.

Yeah, the eddy doesn't look too bad though and importantly there is some convection with it and its close to land so frictional tigthening may well play a role here...just worth watching just in case.

The fact it had the convective hole in the middle of the TD yesterday should have been a big warning sign something wasn't quite right...

[frederic79]

Someone mentioned the convection west of Tampa. The latest sat image shows a pronounced twist in the clouds there. Can this possibly be the beginning of a new LLC forming in an area of relaxed steering while the MLC moves off to the NW?

[jcool]

I agree with you rockyman, it was business as usual on the Mississiippi Gulf Coast today also.

[MGC]

Thank you ULL....now just some rain. Can't believe our good fortune...two systems headed right at me gunned down by a ULL. I can only imagine what my situation would have been had there been an UL high in place instead of a ULL. Hope is stays this way the rest of the season......MGC

[KWT]

Lets just say this season probably already would have been memorable MGC if that was the case!

[artist]

another tornado warning in florida.. our little system is causing some issues..

yeah, my son lives up in Winter Park and said the sirens have gone off a couple of times earlier.

[Jag95]

Thank you ULL....now just some rain. Can't believe our good fortune...two systems headed right at me gunned down by a ULL. I can only imagine what my situation would have been had there been an UL high in place instead of a ULL. Hope is stays this way the rest of the season......MGC

Hear hear. We've already had ours for the season now (fingers crossed). Could use a little rain out of it though. Seems like all the showers have been tap dancing around my house lately.

[KWT]

Not totally out of the woods with this one yet even if it doesn't reform, the models suggest this one has enough of a southward thrust to certainly make things interesting if it can get far enough back into the Gulf.

[tolakram]

I keep forgetting to check MIMIC-TPW

You can see the circulation is near the coast, where the LLC seemed to be consolidating. Not saying it's forming, just that I believe that's where it would if it had more time.

[KWT]

Yeah the area by the coast is the area to watch just in case it does try to redevelop some point in the next 24hrs.

Imagine if the 18z GFS came off...man that'd be a mind hurter!

[capepoint]

I live on Dauphin Island, and I didn't see ANYONE "panic" or "buy everything in sight". I was at the grocery store in Mobile earlier today and saw no panic buying. I do not know of ANYONE who would think they had been through a "real tropical system" today. We coastal residents are a lot smarter than you give us credit for... As far as the NHC, they named this a depression, because it WAS a depression. Plain and simple.

I have lived on the coast 50 miles south of cape hatteras for 45 years. I know very well that longtime coastal residents dont buy the hype with these minor storms, but there are a lot of "implants" that do. It happens here every 2 or 3 years. Then they are the ones running around with the "I survived hurricane so and so" tee shirts, when in reality, the wind never blew more than 50 to 60 on land. I have a good friend that works with NWS, and have learned thru him that when a forcast is too close to call, noaa will usually go with the worst case scenerio when time until event is short. Better be safe than sorry thing.
Did not mean to step on anyones toes, just voicing my opinion.
And IMO, I did not see a TD yesterday, currently it looks better than it did over the past few days, and thats not saying much.

This is my un-professional opinion. Refer to official NOAA products for storm information.

[KWT]

Yeah that is true, most people actually don't really understand just how strong the winds can be, they tend to over-estimate the winds to a large degree.

It looks to me like the LLC is trying to strengthen under the convection developing heading NW towards AL/MS for now.

[OuterBanker]

Capepoint. Ironic, we seem to be the ones getting pummeled tonight. Oh well, we needed the rain.

Don't know if they will hold till they get to you though.

[KWT]

Looks to me like there maybe another weak eddy at least at some level to the SE of the main eddy thats possibly making a run at development as it comes towards land.

[tailgater]

Yeah the area by the coast is the area to watch just in case it does try to redevelop some point in the next 24hrs.

Imagine if the 18z GFS came off...man that'd be a mind hurter!

I would have to disagree, I still think the area south of the Miss. delta is the main area to watch in the next 24hrs. but that little eddy has held together quite well over the last 8 hrs. Just my thoughts.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What about the twist that was evident in the last few frames of the visible that was west of Tampa moving west. You can actually see it on this loop as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[lrak]

What about the twist that was evident in the last few frames of the visible that was west of Tampa moving west. You can actually see it on this loop as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

That is strange...what the heck is it? ULL leftovers?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Really not sure Irak. Could be an MLC that formed out of the storm complex near Tampa earlier today and is now caught under the ridge pushing west.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[lrak]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

its not the best but I can see something..not sure what though

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes