ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

Is the center of circulation under the clouds now or am I seeing things?

[Epsilon_Fan]

aww, we have twins now. Going in opposite diections!

[Cyclone1]

Lol, it's split like an amoeba. This should be interesting to see.

[superfly]

What the heck is going on?

[SunnyThoughts]

Sorry, wrong thread

[Epsilon_Fan]

I guess the invest is the thing going NE but there is a blob and swirl going more west too. Will one of the entities dissipate?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

It appears that 93L has fractured into 2 separate entities due to unfavorable upper level winds. The one it apparently "spit-out" will likely die out as the night progresses due to the lack of lower convergence.

I've been hearing that 93L is moving towards the NE...this is untrue, the hefty westerlies currently affecting the system give that illusion because the wind shear is basically pushing the convection towards the east when in reality the actual system continues moving (north)westward.

[wxman57]

The circulation died out yesterday. All that's left is a wave axis with a blob of convection east of the wave axis. Development chances are slim. It peaked in intensity last Saturday.

[cycloneye]

And look what they did, down to 20% at 8 PM TWO.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AT
THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.

[cycloneye]

The eternal invest that never became anything more. See the long best track file. This has to be one of the longest duration invests ever.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201008120120
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 138N, 303W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 141N, 315W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 145N, 328W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2010080606, , BEST, 0, 148N, 340W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 151N, 352W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 160N, 360W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080700, , BEST, 0, 166N, 368W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080706, , BEST, 0, 176N, 377W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 388W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 198N, 398W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 210N, 409W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 219N, 420W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 226N, 434W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 228N, 450W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 229N, 463W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2010080906, , BEST, 0, 229N, 475W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 233N, 482W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 100, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080918, , BEST, 0, 235N, 492W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 236N, 502W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 125, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081006, , BEST, 0, 237N, 509W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081012, , BEST, 0, 240N, 514W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 242N, 519W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081100, , BEST, 0, 246N, 526W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081106, , BEST, 0, 247N, 519W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 515W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081118, , BEST, 0, 252N, 510W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081200, , BEST, 0, 257N, 507W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[supercane]

Another win for the ULLs:

[StormTracker]

As someone alluded to a couple of days ago, maybe we should start tracking the ULL's instead("2010, The Season of the ULL), Discovery Channel, are you online???

[StormTracker]

This is not good! Complacency is kicking in bigtime! If & when there really is a threat(MJO is gonna be kickin' it up a notch very soon), people are going to get off-guard unfortunately! Be alert people! Scout's Motto: "Be Prepared"!!!

[hurricaneCW]

Weren't we supposed to get the MJO like a week ago and didn't we already enter a favorable MJO. I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference in a moderate La Nina.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al932010.ren
FSTDA
R
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040
010
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201008121249
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2010, DB, O, 2010080600, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL932010
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 138N, 303W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 141N, 315W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 145N, 328W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2010080606, , BEST, 0, 148N, 340W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 151N, 352W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 160N, 360W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080700, , BEST, 0, 166N, 368W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2010080706, , BEST, 0, 176N, 377W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 388W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 198N, 398W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 210N, 409W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 219N, 420W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 226N, 434W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 228N, 450W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080900, , BEST, 0, 229N, 463W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2010080906, , BEST, 0, 229N, 475W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080912, , BEST, 0, 233N, 482W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 100, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010080918, , BEST, 0, 235N, 492W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081000, , BEST, 0, 236N, 502W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 125, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081006, , BEST, 0, 237N, 509W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081012, , BEST, 0, 240N, 514W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 242N, 519W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081100, , BEST, 0, 246N, 526W, 30, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081106, , BEST, 0, 247N, 519W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 515W, 30, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081118, , BEST, 0, 252N, 510W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 200, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2010081200, , BEST, 0, 257N, 507W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[fci]

This is not good! Complacency is kicking in bigtime! If & when there really is a threat(MJO is gonna be kickin' it up a notch very soon), people are going to get off-guard unfortunately! Be alert people! Scout's Motto: "Be Prepared"!!!

It's August and closing in on the height of the season in a few weeks.
An inactive Tropics so far is not going to yield complacency at all.
Sorry to disagree but enough people have had threats and damage over the past few years to not be lulled into a false sense of security.
I don't buy that line of thinking.

[cpdaman]

u want compacency ....move to key west....they are over due for a "it could happen tommorrow scenario"....i hope they stay lucky. one day that luck will run out and it will be one of the highest fatality events bc they wont leave.

[jasons2k]

u want compacency ....move to key west....they are over due for a "it could happen tommorrow scenario"....i hope they stay lucky. one day that luck will run out and it will be one of the highest fatality events bc they wont leave.

True, the conchs won't leave; my Dad will never leave Big Pine. But's there's still only so many people down there, especially now during the "off season".

I think a direct hit on Pinellas would be a lot worse in terms of raw numbers....

[cpdaman]

u want compacency ....move to key west....they are over due for a "it could happen tommorrow scenario"....i hope they stay lucky. one day that luck will run out and it will be one of the highest fatality events bc they wont leave.

True, the conchs won't leave; my Dad will never leave Big Pine. But's there's still only so many people down there, especially now during the "off season".

I think a direct hit on Pinellas would be a lot worse in terms of raw numbers....

possibly however a direct hit on pinellas would require a rare angle..and a bit more difficult to sustain a cat 4/5...where as key west or the middle keys are geographically a hire percentage for a "major landfalling" esp... a cat 4/5.

the keys are only a few miles wide....the storm surge and 140 plus mile winds would leave little chance for life....there are 25,000 in keywest....about 50-60,000 in the lower and middle keys total. this would be IMO the largest hurricane fatality ever. I would HOPE they send out Police and National guard en masse with loud speakers for hours warning people with threats of imminent death... into evacuating....bc that's what it would take for them to even think about leaving.