ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS AS IT DRIFTS INLAND DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[KWT]

Flooding sure does look like being the biggest issue with Td5's remains as they head inland.

[LowndesCoFire]

Interesting discussion from NWS TLH in my area:

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY).
TRICKY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE 00Z GFS MAINTAINING ITS INSISTENCE THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 5 WILL EVENTUALLY DO A FULL CLOCKWISE LOOP AND BE BACK NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MONDAY AS A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA. IN FACT...IF ONE FOLLOWS THE 500 MB VORTICITY ON THE 00Z GFS...THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. 16 DAYS LATER! WHILE OTHER MODELS LIKE THE CANADIAN AND EURO HINT THAT A PIECE OF THE REMNANTS MAY LINGER AROUND...THEY ARE MUCH WEAKER IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER...AND THE WEAKER DEPICTION IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH THIS WEAKER DEPICTION...POPS DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL (50 TO 60 PERCENT) EACH AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...

[Ivanhater]

[HeeBGBz]

I was just now going to post the same radar loop. Looks like there is a center of circulation just south southeast of Biloxi. I took this picture right after I saw this on radar.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/8414202@N03/4886794758/

[cheezyWXguy]

lol an eyewall has formed!

[Aric Dunn]

interestingly enough is that it seems this evening that its drifting east.. lol and thats a small but substantial bit if convection forming near the center at least when looking at the ratio of the convection vs the size of the circ. may not mean much but pressure is actually down from this morning to nearly 1007..

[Aric Dunn]

I was just now going to post the same radar loop. Looks like there is a center of circulation just south southeast of Biloxi. I took this picture right after I saw this on radar.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/8414202@N03/4886794758/

yeah it basically has not moved since yesterday...

[Aric Dunn]

as the models were hinting at the system should be pushed back south then west.. and in the steering currents you can see this.. it is right now stuck in a col .. but the ridge to the north should push south eventually pushing it south

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow. Any chance to two high pressures can help the rotation some? Could be dangerous if it is to re-emerge

[Wx_Warrior]

Each run it develops, but i put litle stock in 6z & 18z GFS. Maybe a tad too strong. But something is there.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting what a little G-IV data on the 10th can add to guidance.

[Macrocane]

We have model support (GFS, CMC, UKMET, ECMWF) so far the GFS has been consistent, let's see if the other models are consistent on the next runs as well.

[South Texas Storms]

is there any chance this thing sits out in the gulf for a few days and not just pop out and then move back onshore that same day?

[HeeBGBz]

Appears to me that the little circulation is building up tonight. Has it started moving NE? Lots of thunder to the south. More rain coming soon.

[baygirl_1]

This is interesting from Mobile NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
825 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.UPDATE...TWEAKED ALL GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO LOWER POPS REGIONWIDE FOR
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. EVEN OVER DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA WELL TO
OUR WEST...MLCAPES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED ~600 J/KG. LEFT
HIGHEST POPS-QPF OVER SW ZONES WHERE BEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
STILL RESIDES ALONG WITH SPINNING REMNANTS OF TD 5.
ON RADAR...THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
NE (< 5KT) BUT SPINNING SLIGHTLY FASTER. LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SFC PRESSURE FALLS HAVE AVERAGED 1-2 MB/3H LAST 3-4 H.
THIS WILL DEFINITELY ENHANCE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG COASTAL
ZONES...SO LEAVING AT LEAST SCT POPS ARE IN STORE. SPECTRAL MODELS
DO SHOW MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INCREASING ALONG OUR COASTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES TOWARDS DAYBREAK POPS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BACK INTO LIKELY (OR HIGH LIKELY) RANGE. THIS REMNANT SYSTEM WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like it could be a flooding problem for the NCGC with all the rain.

00z Nam starts shifting it south over the gulf at the end of the run

[Aric Dunn]

There was a cool little Vorticity signature on the doppler velocities.. pretty decent waterspout was out there..

[Aric Dunn]

Appears to me that the little circulation is building up tonight. Has it started moving NE? Lots of thunder to the south. More rain coming soon.

this thing is so small and its going to wobble around in these weak steering currents.. but from the observations it seems as though is stationary. the convection on radar is just rotating around giving appearance of a NE motion..

[Wx_Warrior]

EDIT: gave away to Iv