Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[hurricaneCW]

Wow how lame. I guess the forecasters screwed up the track analysis as well. I thought storms were more likely to track further west in a moderate La Nina. This one doesn't even get to 60W. I was hoping a Cape Verde storm at least made it to 70W. Oh well it's not like anything has developed and it's over 10 days away.

[cycloneye]

If a strong hurricane verifies, it would jump the ACE units a lot to at least get to around 20 but is very early to know of course since the wave is still in Mali.

[StormClouds63]

Looking like everything from the CV region will recurve this year.

Interesting analysis, KWT. I hope others on the board take note of this observation ... wobble watches for CV systems won't be necessary if you're on the money.

[Scorpion]

Looking like everything from the CV region will recurve this year.

Lmao, seriously? You're saying this after a few long range GFS runs??

[KWT]

Nah just saying it after the fact the models still refuse to really beef up the Bermuda high to any great extent (its a little stronger compared to before) I'm actually really respecting the CFS right now, its been bang on the money so far FWIW...the ECM also suggests recurve based on the pattern....however as I said there is often a fairly fine line between an east coast threat and a recurve.

Of course its probably too early to tell, just throwing it out there...always a chance one sneaks through, effectivly that happened in 1998 where just Georges broke through from the CV region...but one is clearly all it takes!

ps, also note people I didn't say the US is safe, far from it, I'm still banking on a fair bit of activity for the Western part of the basin....and FWIW history would suggest at least one CV system will at least make a very close call indeed.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow how lame. I guess the forecasters screwed up the track analysis as well. I thought storms were more likely to track further west in a moderate La Nina. This one doesn't even get to 60W. I was hoping a Cape Verde storm at least made it to 70W. Oh well it's not like anything has developed and it's over 10 days away.

hurricaneCW, no offense, but I think ya really need to mellow out on your "forecasters screwed up" aspect of your posts...Maybe it's just me, but it seems like
you say that quite a bit, and there is a pretty good margin of error when it comes to forecasting the tropics...

[BigA]

I've been straining my eyes at the ECMWF up to 240 hours, and while the GFS shows recurve, I don;t see the ECMWF showing the same support for recurve. It looks like there is a pretty strong high over the Bermuda area, building westward, which would mean that the storm would have to recurve east of this high, certainly possible, but too early to say if probable.

A fair bit of it might have to due with whether the cyclone starts forming (if it forms) at 12-13 north, as the CMC suggests, or around 16-18 north, as the GFS/ECMWF suggest, because both models take it almost due west initially. (Though I kinda wonder whether the CMC and ECMWF/GFS are developing thes same system, as they seem almost 4 days apart).

As for this storm causing a long-standing weakness, I am not sure, because while this might occur, there are some examples of a westward moving storm following a recurver (Edouard and Fran from 1996 come to mind)

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Two words: "Flip-flop". Models will change a 100 times before we get to the date of the wave actually emerging. However, this is a strong signal. It's about time that something major pops up because of the pattern we're in (record breaking SSTs, La Niña, upward motion based in the Atlantic, etc, etc...) As far as track, your guess is as good as mine, but this wave will be emerging south of 10N, so I'm not bought on a recurvature, if we even do get a system.

[KWT]

The 0z ECM would have shown a storm that'd probably come very close to the east coast, the 12z ECM has no where near enough blocking to prevent it from going anywhere but recurving looking at the upper pattern unless it does take a long time to develop...any moderate weakness and it'll scoot up like the 12z GFS suggests....the 18z GFS looks a little too quick IMO.

I've been onboard with this development phase for a long time now and I'm staying on that train, its a very strong signal for development, if nothing comes from this down the line I'd be shocked.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The tropical wave remains large, vigorous, and well-defined.

[ConvergenceZone]

MiamiHurricanes10, wow that is a huge wave! I'd be shocked if we didn't get our 5th storm of the year from that wave. If that wave doesn't develop, then we have serious problems(or blessings) in the tropics......

I don't see how it can't develop myself.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view of wave. Moving slowly west as is still around Mali in the WestCentral part of that continent. The below image updates every 15 minutes.

[cycloneye]

Position of wave axis at 8:45 PM EDT.

[gatorcane]

this one seems "a go" with good model support, here we go folks.......

mid August has arrived, wet-phase of the MJO is arriving, things are coming together. This time next week could be hurricane Danielle moving westward across the Atlantic. Too early to say whether it is a fish or not.

[Macrocane]

To be fair not all the models develop this system yet, the ECMWF doesn't have a tropical cyclone just a low but let's see what it has on the next runs.

[cycloneye]

To be fair not all the models develop this system yet, the ECMWF doesn't have a tropical cyclone just a low but let's see what it has on the next runs.

NOGAPS has nada so far.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

To be fair not all the models develop this system yet, the ECMWF doesn't have a tropical cyclone just a low but let's see what it has on the next runs.

No, the ECMWF does make it a tropical cyclone. A closed isobar suggests a closed low, indicative of a cyclone. You also have to remember that it is a global model, you usually have to take off a couple mb's to know intensity.

[gatorcane]

UKMET shows a low in the MDR and the low off Africa in 5 days (the wave of interest)....so the UKMET is on board. The UKMET is a very conservative model so if it shows something, I'm watching! Lots of high pressure across the Northern Atlantic....

[BigA]

It's all (fun) speculation at this point, but it looks like the models develop the wave at around 16-18 north, which is pretty far north for a Cape Verde storm. Right now the most intense focus of the wave looks to be around 11-12 north. Whether it gains latitude over Africa could be a player in whether it fishes or not.

[Meso]

Not currently able to save and upload to an external image hosting service, but:



EURO is showing it turning into a closed low, doesn't do too much with it, but it does create that low.