ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS..low deepening over Pensacola

[Brent]

Ugh, this better not ruin my vacation. Going to Pensacola Beach Sunday-Wednesday.

[Wx_Warrior]

132H

[Ivanhater]

GFS is bombing this from Pensacola to New Orleans

[Ivanhater]

That's gotta be a hurricane on the GFS....

Brent, might be a little windy when you get here

[Wx_Warrior]

picked up....

144h

[Wx_Warrior]

Talking a less than a week.

[supercane]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 130431 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.UPDATE...

THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS SLOWLY MOVING
INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO KGPT.
AS A RESULT...HAVE VCSH INCLUDED TO SHOW THIS RISK. AT ALL OF THE
OTHER TERMINALS...LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS A
SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS SETTLED IN. THIS PERIOD OF
STABILITY SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND 10Z...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION REFIRING OVER INLAND AREAS BY 14Z...AND THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF EXACTLY WHEN
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT A TERMINAL...HAVE SIMPLY INCLUDED VCTS IN
THE TAF FOR EACH STATION BEGINNING AT 12-14Z AND LASTING THROUGH
AROUND 00Z. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A BROKEN DECK AT AROUND 5-8000 FEET AND ANOTHER
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK AT AROUND 15000 FEET. HEADING INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FEED INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING RAINFALL THREAT. THUS HAVE
REMOVED ANY VCSH OR VCTS WORDING. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010/

SHORT TERM...
DISORGANIZED REMNANTS OF TD 5 ARE CONTINUING TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. RADAR/SATELLITE
LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS
LARGELY UNAPPARENT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF
WEAK CIRCULATION HAS REFORMED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DIRECTLY SOUTH
OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTION IS LARGELY CONFINED TO WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH IS KEEPING PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA...IN THE
IMMEDIATE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE BATON ROUGE
AND MCCOMB AREAS...BUT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW ITSELF IN THESE AREAS.

THE LOW ITSELF SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUING. GREATEST HEAVY RAIN IMPACT STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...PARISHES ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...MORE ISOLATED BOUTS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL LEAVE THE ORIENTATION AND DURATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS IS FOR NOW...WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AS TO HOW LONG
THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian out to 84 hours...back over the Gulf and deepening

[Ivanhater]

This should be a fun one to forecast

Similar to GFS, pretty strong

[TwisterFanatic]

I can't tell, does the GFS show it over water or over land?

[Ivanhater]

I can't tell, does the GFS show it over water or over land?

Over water close to the coast, but it is strengthening regardless.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS

[Ivanhater]

00Z Canadian

[southerngale]

Ugh, this better not ruin my vacation. Going to Pensacola Beach Sunday-Wednesday.

You want tropical development. Welcome to the world of the coast!

[ROCK]

not going to bomb out sitting so close to the coast if models verify. Maybe a TS...

[Ivanhater]

not going to bomb out sitting so close to the coast if models verify. Maybe a TS...

This one seems different, it actually strengthens over land before even hitting the water and after it moves onshore again it continues to strengthen. The water may not even matter.

I'm assuming Upper air forcing causing the deepening.

[Wx_Warrior]

Going with Rock with this one. Not too concerned (yet).

[South Texas Storms]

does the euro show this same scenario?

[somethingfunny]

I don't have to point out that this area in the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico has the highest SSTs in the entire basin and has all season long. Even if we don't get a spinup, those temps would fuel instability and more rainstorms along the coast.