ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

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South Texas Storms
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1341 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Aug 13, 2010 11:26 am

12z gfs way west into houston!
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1342 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 13, 2010 11:28 am

Through hour 138 and still stuck in TX dropping a lot of rain.

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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1343 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 13, 2010 11:56 am

12Z into Freeport...hard to tell intensity but would need to get away from the coast to amount anymore than a TS......I wish it would do something already...sheesh... :D
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1344 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Aug 13, 2010 11:59 am

rock even if it is a ts at landfall, gfs shows A LOT of rain for texas from it
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1345 Postby Pearl River » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:01 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe the GFS has dropped it on any of its runs over the past few days.
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#1346 Postby bayoubebe » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:02 pm

We've had what seems to be stronger rain and wind today in NOLA area. All of a sudden had windy down pour.
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1347 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:05 pm

It was picked up on one of those runs.....
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1348 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:06 pm

wx warrior, you dont believe the 12z gfs scenario yet do you?
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1349 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:16 pm

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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1350 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:17 pm

12z Canadian.

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#1351 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:33 pm

No way GFS verifies...im having a hard time thinking anythig beyond a depression will form.
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1352 Postby BigA » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:33 pm

This could be a system where 50-100 miles makes all the difference between nothing and a strong tropical storm.
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1353 Postby perk » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:35 pm

Pearl River wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe the GFS has dropped it on any of its runs over the past few days.




No correction necessary,you're exactly right. :D
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#1354 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:44 pm

Yeah its close indeed...

What does the NHC do if it does get into the Gulf...technically I suspect its still TD5.
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#1355 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:45 pm

Take a look at the 12z GFS portastorm, you may just get your wish!
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Re: Models Develop Gulf System

#1356 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:49 pm

12z Canadian a little stronger

This is going to lead to a crappy weekend and early next week along the NCGC. Flooding could be a big issue.
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Re:

#1357 Postby Portastorm » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:50 pm

KWT wrote:Take a look at the 12z GFS portastorm, you may just get your wish!


Indeed! This may be a case of "be careful what you wish for!"

Well, I'll wait a few more runs before getting too excited as our current 105-degree-plus heat indices have a dulling effect. :lol:
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Re:

#1358 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:50 pm

KWT wrote:Take a look at the 12z GFS portastorm, you may just get your wish!


I heard :(hoping that it wont build up too much before landfall
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Re:

#1359 Postby perk » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:51 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:No way GFS verifies...im having a hard time thinking anythig beyond a depression will form.





I've seen stranger things happen.
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#1360 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:56 pm

All depends on whether it gets into the Gulf or not but we will see, its a tough call, 50 miles makes a real difference.
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