Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[KWT]

Yeah it'd have to probably totally poof to have any shot and as 93L showed even if that happens its probably still not going to be enough with the current set-up we have.

GFS does suggest a pretty quick forming TS with this wave though it has to be said, would be pretty far east...

[cycloneye]

Well, this 18z run so far has a weaker system.

144 hours

[Ivanhater]

168

[KWT]

Looks to me this run gives this wave some competiton from the weak feature to the south/SW of it which doesn't really help the system and indeed forces it somewhat back SW between 120-144hrs.

Certainly an interesting solution though one not to be discounted, the models aren't really overly keen on this as early as the GFS tries to get it going, the ECM for example doesn't get much stronger till 192hrs.

The GFS is also quite a lot differnet in the way it handles the upper features compared most recent runs...

[Ivanhater]

Looks like it moved SW some on this run

[Ivanhater]

180

[KWT]

Closer to the 12z ECM...as per normal from the 18z GFS, I've noticed that the 18z quite often does follow on from the 12z ECM which is a neat little quirky thing!

Will probably get further west but there is still alot of shortwaves coming through N.America and heading into the Atlantic.

[Ivanhater]

192..That is why is gets pushed SW, stronger high building over it in the central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Definitly much more west. At 192 hours starts to develop more.

[KWT]

Alot further west indeed, probably more realistic then the quick recurve some of the runs have been trying to suggest...

However it is a huge outlier compared to the last 6-8 runs of the GFS...could be a new trend though so will wait to see what the 0z does.

[Ivanhater]

Alot further west indeed, probably more realistic then the quick recurve some of the runs have been trying to suggest...

However it is a huge outlier compared to the last 6-8 runs of the GFS...could be a new trend though so will wait to see what the 0z does.

Certainly in better agreement with the Euro. Stronger high building in the central atl. Also note the trough flattening out over the Eastern seaboard. Too far out to know the specifics right now, but interesting...

[Ivanhater]

Misses the first weakness, but catches the 2nd

[cycloneye]

Much,much closer to East Coast of U.S. Bermuda at high risk if this pans out.

[KWT]

The main problem I have is its very different indeed to any of the last few runs from the GFS. Whilst its closer to the 12z ECM I'm not really sure its for the right reasons but I can't be sure.

The main synoptic difference is as early as 120hrs, where a weak upper trough digs down to the west of Portugal a little more then the other runs from the GFS today which in turn causes a small ridge to develop from the main upper high and the angle causes it to move WSW for a while.

Given its a brand new development, I'm going to treat it with caution but if it shows up on the next few runs then for sure its going to make things more interesting.

Track would be exactly the same as Colin if that run came off...

[UpTheCreek]

Looking like everything from the CV region will recurve this year.

I, for one, no longer have any concerns with anything coming out of the CV region......

Just funnin' with ya, KWT........ you're my favorite!

[AtlanticWind]

Model watching is fun but I would like to have a dime for every time the GFS had a major hurricane hitting me 10-15 days out

[cycloneye]

I would wait for the 00z run to see if this 18z one was a loner or it will be a trend more westward.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS

[Ivanhater]

GFS Operational recurves further west, but GFS Ensemble hits the Carolinas

[KWT]

FWIW its the system behind it on those ensembles that have me more worried...

However those GFS ensembles are interesting and the 12z ECM does support the 18z GFS which is why I'm not going to discount even though its very different in the first 120hrs to the previous sets of GFS runs.