Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[ROCK]

both fishes and likely could get quite strong....long time to watch....

[Ivanhater]

both fishes and likely could get quite strong....long time to watch....

The GFS has come further west and is coming in line with the Euro on the ridge..look at the trough flattening out over the East coast....this could be a U.S threat with the trends. GFS Ensemble had a Carolina hit

[ConvergenceZone]

both fishes and likely could get quite strong....long time to watch....

I agree with Ivanhater, that's getting way too close to the east coast to call it a fish...I bet there's a decent chance one of them won't be a fish...

[cycloneye]

This is where the run ends in 16 days.

[Vortex]

The trend the last 2 runs has been much further west...Looking forward to the ECM tonight.

[cycloneye]

Too close for confort for me and those who live in the NE Caribbean if that pans out.

[ROCK]

really depends on what lat it comes off and how fast it develops. Both of these will be important factors...

[Ivanhater]

really depends on what lat it comes off and how fast it develops. Both of these will be important factors...

I agree...I noticed on tonight's run, it had a double vort max. One south, one north. The northern one took over, but if it consolidates further south, all bets are off.

[ROCK]

really depends on what lat it comes off and how fast it develops. Both of these will be important factors...

I agree...I noticed on tonight's run, it had a double vort max. One south, one north. The northern one took over, but if it consolidates further south, all bets are off.

agree....just in time for the MJO wet phase also....EURO might shed some light on ridge placement in the long range...

[Ivanhater]

Canadian wants to play

[WxGuy1]

Models (and people!) generally do a poor job of forecasting tropical cyclogenesis. Likewise, model skill often drops off sharply with time (dependent upon the model and the "time"); certainly, a GFS forecast 12-16 days out is way, way, way in fantasy land for almost all scales below global-scale (perhaps some skill on the synoptic scale, but certainly very little for phenomena on the scale of most nascent tropical cyclones). So, a very long-range GFS forecast (generally low-skill) of the genesis of a tropical cyclone (generally low-skill) is probably not anything anyone should get concerned about yet. I'm not saying it won't happen, and I know we don't really have anything else to talk about right now (since the tropics are a bore right now...), but I wouldn't put any serious thought into the 16 day GFS forecast of an undeveloped and currently-non-existent tropical cyclone right now.

Now, I shall head over to wxcaster.com and pull up the 60 day CFS forecast to see what it has to say... The 1356 hr CFS forecast valid October 5th, 2010, does have a low approaching Florida from the southeast.

[blp]

Count the NOGAPS onboard as well. Very good model consensus now on this developing now. Some of the models predict cyclogensis at a high latitude though which if that would happen would make it quite hard to not recurve. We will see what the might EURO says.

[Ivanhater]

I miss the good 'ol days when the higher resolution Euro maps would start updating around 1:30

[blp]

00Z Euro looks further south and west on this run.



Also looks like a good amount of weakness off the east coast but will it move quickly allowing the ridge to build in.

[Ivanhater]

Just about to post that..bet it shows up nicely on the higher resolution

[blp]

I bet it will show up quite nice. What time does it come out?

Just about to post that..bet it shows up nicely on the higher resolution

[Ivanhater]

I bet it will show up quite nice. What time does it come out?

Just about to post that..bet it shows up nicely on the higher resolution

It's supposed to be out already but has been messed up the last couple days...really frustrating for the weaker systems the higher resolution cant resolve...

[blp]

Found the high resolution image. Looking impressive. Did you notice the second system developing just the like the GFS.

I also ran the loop on this and it is interesting that the evolution of this low starts out SW of the CV islands and then jogs to the NE and then gets steered by the ridge. I noticed that on the CMC as well.



Loop:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[Ivanhater]

You keep beating me BLP

That is interesting...I looked over the GFS and had a double vort max and the northern one eventually took over. This is an interesting set up.

That 2nd system is interesting as well and much further south...looking like August on the models!

[blp]

Ok so that makes sense, very interesting indeed. I can't believe the EURO is also starting to jump on the second system just like the GFS. Looks like some long night ahead. I am calling it a night. Have a good one.

You keep beating me BLP

That is interesting...I looked over the GFS and had a double vort max and the northern one eventually took over. This is an interesting set up.