Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

Add the long range Canadian to the twins

[blp]

Wow, wait till everyone sees this in the morning. I wonder were the slow season people will be when they see this setup.

[quote="Ivanhater"]Add the long range Canadian to the twins [quote]

[BigA]

The pattern is a changin, just like it always (non el nino) does in mid-August, give or take a week. I'm fired up for something(s?) to track.

[dwsqos2]

The genesis date keeps getting delayed. That's never a good sign if one wants to see a tc.

[Ivanhater]

The genesis date keeps getting delayed. That's never a good sign if one wants to see a tc.

The date hasn't changed at all...only thing that changed is another system developing behind the first one...

[KWT]

Hmmm some very interesting output, the models have shifted westwards but they still keep the broad trough near the east coast which still suggests a fish is more likely but certainly could get closer then expected if some of these models come off...

Its the 2nd wave that really has my attention though, the GFS has been keen on a recurve for it but it sets-up further siuth and I see no real reason why it should lift out like it does on the 0z that quickly.

[cycloneye]

The 06z GFS run is the 11th in a row showing it. Wow,look where it ends, yes making a landfall in the U.S. SE coast, after brushing the NE Caribbean.

06z GFS loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ronjon]

The GFS has continued to trend west with the tropical cyclone predicted to form near the CV islands in 5 days. ECM ensemble out to 10 days shows fairly stout ridging. Wouldn't surprise me to see this disturbance trend more south and west with time.

[KWT]

Wow thats the 3rd run in a row to end up even further west then the last one...things are getting mighty interesting aren't they!

The GFS is also far less agressive in the short term with this system which probably helps it not to gain too much latitude too quickly.

[ronjon]

Wow thats the 3rd run in a row to end up even further west then the last one...things are getting mighty interesting aren't they!

The GFS is also far less agressive in the short term with this system which probably helps it not to gain too much latitude too quickly.

Also, KWT, both the GFS and ECM form a pretty strong mid-level ridge that extends from about 20W to about 60W near 20N. What's interesting is that this ridge is oriented W-SW and E-NE which tends to drive the system W-SW in the central Atlantic. The system actually loses some latitude when it forms near the CV islands - according to the models.

[KWT]

Yeah the models have switched back to a stronger High between 30-60W...there is still enough of a weakness west of 60W to make it a very uncertain call and I think we will see the models flip numerous more times.

Still at least we do seem to be getting more likely for development, I think somewhere between 25-35W is where formation is most likely, so certainly a CV system I feel.

[Blown Away]

The 06z GFS run is the 11th in a row showing it. Wow,look where it ends, yes making a landfall in the U.S. SE coast, after brushing the NE Caribbean.

06z GFS loop

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

If this pans out, I would think the FL system would have to trend west with a system very close to the east? The two systems being so close and at the same latitude couldn't recurve at the same time? Right?

[KWT]

It'd depend BA on whether the upper trough was able to pick up both systems as it sweeps through. Thats certainly what most of yesterdays run were suggesting but the models have shifted somewhat agian today.

However its a tightrope that the system makes, a slightly sharper trough and the system would recurve, so we will see!

[gatorcane]

You have to remember that once you go beyond about 7 days in the models the accuracy really drops, especially after 10 days. The ECMWF and GFS were both showing a recurve a couple of days ago but that was like 8-10 days out in the run. Though both may agree they can also both change as well. We have seen this SO many times. Even this year, with Colin, both the GFS and ECMWF showed a ridge building in pushing Colin into the SE US (Florida) at about 8-10 days out. Then they both switched to a recurve.

So at this point way too early to say if this will be a fish or not. Look at that system behind the current system. It's really about ready to pick up folks.....

[wxman57]

Definitely, the models are signaling a pattern change next Wednesday with the development of the first system off west Africa, closely followed by a second development. As for where they might go it's way too early to have the slightest bit of confidence. However, with the predicted weaker Bermuda High and formation so far east, the odds are that such systems will recurve east of the Caribbean. But with 2 systems traveling together it might be possible for one to reach the Caribbean and/or the U.S.

Meanwhile, I'll enjoy this last weekend off of work. Time to head out on the bike.

[KWT]

Definitely, the models are signaling a pattern change next Wednesday with the development of the first system off west Africa, closely followed by a second development. As for where they might go it's way too early to have the slightest bit of confidence. However, with the predicted weaker Bermuda High and formation so far east, the odds are that such systems will recurve east of the Caribbean. But with 2 systems traveling together it might be possible for one to reach the Caribbean and/or the U.S.

Good post as per normal, yesterday I was pretty confident on a recurve but today I'm not so sure, the models aren't as agressive with the speed of development. One of the key aspects of yesterdays GFS runs for example was a quick former that latched ont othe shortwave passing when it was between 20-30W lifting it upto to 18N right away...but with it taking longer to get going and a stronger upper high now progged, its not going to get as far north as progged. I think the odds of a US threat are there though a track perhaps like Colin maybe more realistic but we will see.

As you say, I'm suspecting one out of the two will be a threat down the line.

[cycloneye]

Look at the bottom right part of image and you can see the wave the models develop.

[gatorcane]

You can see the wave train is about to get going in that pic. I see 3 distinct waves

[cycloneye]

Maybe GFS is right about two vort maxes merging into one. It will be facinating to watch how all of this evolves into the first true Cape Verde TC of the 2010 season.

[ROCK]

end run of the GFS shows the high building as it approaches the EC....might ge pushed down into FL EC