Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

You said it KWT. But look at the other one behind.This is now lalaland territory.

252 hours.

[KWT]

Yeah that one would probably follow this one into the same weakness I'd imagine Cycloneye.

Much more troughy Atlantic this run, whilst I think a recurve will occur, I think the 12z is WAY overdoing the troughing past 144hrs.

[cycloneye]

Hey look at this, the one behind sneaked below the first one.

312 hours.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I'm more in-line with the 00z ECMWF and the 12z GFS intensity. Check this out...

The ECMWF forecasts that we be in a deeply negative phase of the NAO when PGI30L emerges and treks across the Atlantic, meaning that a recurvature is less likely. I'm actually more bought on a Caribbean system, than a "fish". We shall see what happens, too soon to tell.

[cycloneye]

And that's all folks courtesy of the 12z GFS. Look how the run ends and yes a new candidate appears.

[KWT]

The 12z GFS has a fish with both systems but does suggest a slightly more interesting system coming behind those two lae on...

I think the 12z GFS is a little too agressive on the strengthening and is also overdigging the upper trough early on too much and esp in the deeper part of the run, which leads to the conclusion that it gets further west then progged.

That being said I'd be surprised if its a Caribbean threat, systems coming off at 15-18N don't often become threats to the Caribbean bar maybe the far NE of the Caribbean Islands.

[cycloneye]

Ivan, what do you make of this 12z GFS run?

[CourierPR]

All aborad the recurve train on the 12z GFS from the looks of things.

Note the quicker development once again probably makes a world of difference with the probable track....and also the 12z GFS is WAY deeper with the E.Atlantic trough...

It is worth noting the 12z GFS usually has the strongest cold bias of all the GFS runs, so its probably rather overdoing the strength of the upper trough in the E.Atlantic.

Ya' know, I'm starting to think the T in KWT stands for troughmonger. Maybe the site should be changed to Trough2k.

[Ivanhater]

Was just catching up...I saw the 06z GFS that had a U.S landfall pretty far south. Amazing to see each of the runs continually shift west.

12z could be right..I'd imaging we will continue to see flopping but early on the trend has been further south and west. Looks like we will be tracking two at the same time

[cycloneye]

For those who want to see how the features move in the 12z GFS run, here is the complete loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Ya' know, I'm starting to think the T in KWT stands for troughmonger. Maybe the site should be changed to Trough2k.

To be fair I'm sure there are worse people for trying to find troughing!

The 12z ECM is going to interesting yet again to see whether it recurves or not this run, the last couple of runs have been tough to tell, but it does seem more keen on a stronger Azores High which makes sense.

Could have 2 hurricanes at the same time if the GFS last few runs are right...

[cycloneye]

12z CMC at 144 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

Model runs continue to suggest the formation of Danielle between 14-17N. What I find interesting is several of the Global models suggest a wsw motion beyond 30 W. CMC 12Z also depicts this trend.

12Z CMC loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Model runs continue to suggest the formation of Danielle between 14-17N. What I find interesting is several of the Global models suggest a wsw motion beyond 30 W. CMC 12Z also depicts this trend.

12Z CMC loop

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Steering in that area, courtesy of the subtropical ridge, is very southwesterly. Since an intensifying system goes poleward, this will want to do that, however, the subtropical ridge denies "her" and pushes her away.

[ROCK]

thats a change for the CMC..last run was a weak reflection now we have decent development. all aboard now...we just need to see where it takes shape and at what lat...

curious on the GFS trof..seems to dig fairly deep for August. Need more consensus on how amplified it will be down the road....

[KWT]

Look how weak the high pressure is though overall on the CMC, once it'll get past 40W it'll probably move WNW to the point where a recurve becomes odds on fav on the 12z CMC as well...till then WSW motion looks reasonable.

If it sets up to the south of where the models expect then all bets are off...but still heavily favour the recurve solution.

Also note on the 12z CMC you can see the next wave starting to come off from Africa, further south.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

thats a change for the CMC..last run was a weak reflection now we have decent development. all aboard now...we just need to see where it takes shape and at what lat...

curious on the GFS trof..seems to dig fairly deep for August. Need more consensus on how amplified it will be down the road....

Probably not as much as the GFS depicts, very normal for it to overdo the amplification of trofs. At this point, God knows where this will go in the long run, it could do from a Dean, to a Floyd, to a Bill.

[cycloneye]

I think I saw graphics of longer timeframes by CMC that go to 240 hours that Ivan posted early this morning. Are those out already?

[KWT]

They only come out for the 0z runs cycloneye.

I'd be very surprised if the GFS is correct with how deep it digs the trough...we might get lucky because with the two likely forming if the first one was at the same latitude as the 2nd, then we'd have to watch very closely, but since its not I'm not as worried bout this one at this stage, too early to tell for sure...but synoptics over the last month sure do favour a recurve, and whilst the upper high is a little stronger in the C.Atlantic, still looks like a pretty progressive pattern.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I think I saw graphics of longer timeframes by CMC that go to 240 hours that Ivan posted early this morning. Are those out already?

Those are for the GGEM (which is the Canadian), which only go out to 240 hours on the 00z run. You can access them here:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/GGEM.html