Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

The 1947 Hurricane is a perfect example of a Cape Verde storm developing at higher latitudes then tracks wsw and ends crossing Florida and into the Gulf...Could be a good analog...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1947_ ... _track.png




The Fort Lauderdale Hurricane (or Pompano Beach Hurricane) was an intense Category 5 hurricane that affected the Bahamas, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi in September of the 1947 Atlantic hurricane season. The fourth tropical cyclone, third hurricane, and first intense hurricane of the 1947 Atlantic hurricane season, it developed 230 miles (370 km) east of Praia, Cape Verde. It quickly strengthened to a hurricane on September 4. Later, it turned southwest on September 7, and it steadily resumed a northwest motion on September 10. A large, powerful hurricane, it attained its peak intensity of 160 mph (260 km/h) over the Abaco Islands, and it made landfall near Pompano Beach, Florida. It passed over southern Florida, and it eventually struck southeastern Louisiana as a weaker Category 3 hurricane. It killed 51 people and caused $110 million (1947 USD) in damage. The tropical cyclone is one of only five hurricanes to strike the United States with maximum sustained winds of at least 155 mph (250 km/h).[2]

[srainhoutx]

I believe that the bottom line is that for repeated runs from various models, we are seeing the beginning of what will likely be an active Cape Verde Season. The pattern change to a more active pattern is becoming difficult to ignore. The tropics are waking up IMO.

[KWT]

To be fair though Vortex this one is starting WAY north of where that one did, this one may set-up at 18N.

I think the threat maybe quite high for Bermuda though thats always a needle in the haystack type situation, but given Colin's track was close, could well be similar because whilst the troughing isn't as strong, the starting point is more to the north of Colin.

It will be good to watch this one, I just hope the interest doesn't totally drain away like it always does if it does fish...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

To be fair though Vortex this one is starting WAY north of where that one did, this one may set-up at 18N.

I think the threat maybe quite high for Bermuda though thats always a needle in the haystack type situation, but given Colin's track was close, could well be similar because whilst the troughing isn't as strong, the starting point is more to the north of Colin.

It will be good to watch this one, I just hope the interest doesn't totally drain away like it always does if it does fish...

You mean emerging? This one will be emerging at around 12-14N not 18N. It is currently at 10N...it would have to begin NW motion to get to 18N.

[ROCK]

the 12z GFS shows Dee recurvce but Earl sneaking by under it.....I would contend that Earl will sneak thru and not follow Dee out....all about timing really and how fast the high builds in after Dee moves out. Just my 2 cents...

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z NOGAPS going ballistic by developing at least 4 cyclones, one of which is PGI30L.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010081412&set=Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS going ballistic by developing at least 4 cyclones, one of which is PGI30L.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010081412&set=Tropical

Link doesn't work.

[somethingfunny]

12z NOGAPS going ballistic by developing at least 4 cyclones, one of which is PGI30L.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010081412&set=Tropical

Link doesn't work.

You have to allow your web browser to view the Navy's secure website.

I only counted three cyclones in that loop though - unless you're counting the frontal low NE of Bermuda.

[KWT]

You mean emerging? This one will be emerging at around 12-14N not 18N. It is currently at 10N...it would have to begin NW motion to get to 18N.

Note how all the models set-up the low feature way up at 16-18N, remember what happened with 93L and how that came off at 10N but set-up way north...similar thing would happen this time because ther eis a strong weakness to the NE over W.Europe right now...

Plus FWIW the PG-30L track shows most of the models do take this WNW/NW out of the coast at roughly 15N.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z NOGAPS going ballistic by developing at least 4 cyclones, one of which is PGI30L.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2010081412&set=Tropical

Link doesn't work.

Try this one:

http://www.bvipirate.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[Ivanhater]

As I wait in this extremly long wait at the barber shop I thought I would pop in and say I think the lid is coming off

[MiamiHurricanes10]

You mean emerging? This one will be emerging at around 12-14N not 18N. It is currently at 10N...it would have to begin NW motion to get to 18N.

Note how all the models set-up the low feature way up at 16-18N, remember what happened with 93L and how that came off at 10N but set-up way north...similar thing would happen this time because ther eis a strong weakness to the NE over W.Europe right now...

Plus FWIW the PG-30L track shows most of the models do take this WNW/NW out of the coast at roughly 15N.

Oh ok, I see what you mean.

[cycloneye]

I see NOGAPS now.

I guess we have a true consensus for development.

[ConvergenceZone]

As one of the Mets pointed out in a discussion last year, I think it was Derek Ortt, most of the CV systems suppose to recurve out to sea, but every now and then one does sneak in. Can you imagine the horrible death and destruction that would occur very year if most of them didn't recurve?? We are pretty blessed the way that works out...

I'm just excited to finally be able to track a storm, and hopefully it will be a pinwheeling buzzsaw Cat 3 or above with no threat to bermuda or the U.S, or anywhere for that matter.

Does anyone now when the first wave that the models develop suppose to move offshore?

[Bluefrog]

Just no GOM storms, depressions, regular hurricanes or MAJORS. And Ivan ..... do you sleep ever? You must sleep with a laptop.

[ColinDelia]

Definitely quiet out there ATM. 14 pages for African waves

[cycloneye]

Does anyone now when the first wave that the models develop suppose to move offshore?

Below is the link to the test invest PGI-30L where there are many things related to this wave only, from tracks, sat images, models and much more. You would not want to go away from it as there is plenty of info to gather.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI30L.html

[KWT]

Oh ok, I see what you mean.

Well you never know the system could quite easily set-up a little to the south, the models obviously are to be treated with a little bit of caution until we actually have it set-up.

Whatever happens, looks like we will be tracking this one for at least the next 12 days even if it recurves quickly...and if it doesn't take the early exit route, well could have this still going into September!

ColinDelia, yeah but then again this is looking like a proper CV storm at the moment, no more false dawns.

[Ivanhater]

sleep? I dont remember what that feels like

[cycloneye]

The wave in front of PGI-30L has been introduced by TPC at the 2 PM TWD.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA ALONG 13W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF THE
WAVE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W.