ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Hello, everyone. I'm new here, but some of you might recognize my handle from Weather Underground. Seems a lot more civil here, so I might be spending more of my time here.

Anyway, looks like ex-TD5 is going to perform the anticyclonic loop and end up back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Personally, I've never seen a tropical system strengthen that close to the Central Gulf of Mexico coastline, so I'm not so sure I believe it will strengthen to a tropical storm. Experience tells me to expect nothing more than a tropical depression. If it moves far enough off-shore, then I'll like its chances more.

Hey! I'm MH09, but turned into MH10 here. Lol. Great to see you on. Anyhow, it looks like if it can distance itself enough from the coastline it will have a shot of attaining a name. ECMWF makes it a tropical cyclone, intensity is unclear, but it looks like a borderline TS.

[Ivanhater]

Welcome Mississippiwx!

Euro 72 hours



96 hours

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Welcome Mississippiwx!

Euro 72 hours

Now that is a TS...two closed isobars is good enough.

[Dean4Storms]

Going to be very fun to watch this evolving or transition take place.

[MississippiWx]

Hello, everyone. I'm new here, but some of you might recognize my handle from Weather Underground. Seems a lot more civil here, so I might be spending more of my time here.

Anyway, looks like ex-TD5 is going to perform the anticyclonic loop and end up back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Personally, I've never seen a tropical system strengthen that close to the Central Gulf of Mexico coastline, so I'm not so sure I believe it will strengthen to a tropical storm. Experience tells me to expect nothing more than a tropical depression. If it moves far enough off-shore, then I'll like its chances more.

Hey! I'm MH09, but turned into MH10 here. Lol. Great to see you on. Anyhow, it looks like if it can distance itself enough from the coastline it will have a shot of attaining a name. ECMWF makes it a tropical cyclone, intensity is unclear, but it looks like a borderline TS.

Yeah, we'll see what happens. I've never seen one develop so closely to the coast before, but I'm not sure if I've ever seen a developing system move so slowly across the coastline either. The slow forward speed might end up helping its chances. One system that comes to mind is Fay a couple of years ago. She skirted the coastline for a long time, but never re-strengthened. However, I do believe ex-TD5 will be over water more than Fay was at that time.

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't think it's going to be a strong TS, if that...That won't be the problem whether it gets TS or not...It's the rain that will be awful.

[MississippiWx]

Thanks for the welcome, Ivan! I've seen you over on WU...good to see you here.

And when the EURO starts showing stuff like that at 72 hours, I'm more inclined to believe. If the EURO shows that strength consistently, I'll start leaning a little more towards getting a named system out of this. However, I'm still not too gung-ho about it. Regardless, it's going to be fun to watch.

[southerngale]

Welcome to Storm2k, MississippiWx.

[xcool22]

MississippiWx to storm2k

[MiamiHurricanes10]

ECMWF and GFS on a consensus of turning ex-05L into Danielle. When these two models agree with each other, chances for tropical cyclone development go up big time.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks like EURO runs it right down the coast.

[Plant grower]

Hello, everyone. I'm new here, but some of you might recognize my handle from Weather Underground. Seems a lot more civil here, so I might be spending more of my time here.

Anyway, looks like ex-TD5 is going to perform the anticyclonic loop and end up back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Personally, I've never seen a tropical system strengthen that close to the Central Gulf of Mexico coastline, so I'm not so sure I believe it will strengthen to a tropical storm. Experience tells me to expect nothing more than a tropical depression. If it moves far enough off-shore, then I'll like its chances more.

Hey! I'm MH09, but turned into MH10 here. Lol. Great to see you on. Anyhow, it looks like if it can distance itself enough from the coastline it will have a shot of attaining a name. ECMWF makes it a tropical cyclone, intensity is unclear, but it looks like a borderline TS.

Yeah, we'll see what happens. I've never seen one develop so closely to the coast before, but I'm not sure if I've ever seen a developing system move so slowly across the coastline either. The slow forward speed might end up helping its chances. One system that comes to mind is Fay a couple of years ago. She skirted the coastline for a long time, but never re-strengthened. However, I do believe ex-TD5 will be over water more than Fay was at that time.

What about Humberot

[MississippiWx]

You are correct about Humberto! I was talking about the Central Gulf Coast, however. I didn't really specify that, so my bad! I've just never seen one spin up along our coastline. It would be a rare sight, but I think it's certainly possible.

[MississippiWx]

MississippiWx to storm2k

Hey, xcool! Nice to see you here as well.

[KWT]

ECMWF and GFS on a consensus of turning ex-05L into Danielle. When these two models agree with each other, chances for tropical cyclone development go up big time.

Yeah the ECM probably would be a TS, the 12z GFS doesn't get far enough south IMO but the 12z ECM has been pretty keen on bringing it just about far enough south so lets watch this one closely as it comes southwards.

[xcool22]

big question is how far east, and how far south into the GOM hmm

[sjmballer]

hey ivanhater... i would like to thank you for bringing video up from jb accuweather.com i tried to present to storm2k site ..it just did want to work right for me...got busy with family yesterday ..did want to leave you hanging buddy..lol...now on the td-ex i think if it reaches far enough in gulf i say tropical storm my area pt/bmt

[I-wall]

I dont see what all the fuss is about. TD 5 dissipated, remember guys?

Fuss? If by fuss, you mean discussion about what is going on and future possibilities with Ex TD 5 that is what "Talking Tropics" is all about. Maybe this is not the forum for you.

I was being sarcastic. This is certainly the forum for me

[I-wall]

I dont see what all the fuss is about. TD 5 dissipated, remember guys?

Check this out from "The Free Dictionary":

"Dissipate: To vanish."

I don't think that it has vanished...do you?

I wasnt suggesting that it vanished. I'm in Joe Bastardi's camp on this one. I just thought it was odd that the NHC said the system dissipated when clearly it had not.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hello, everyone. I'm new here, but some of you might recognize my handle from Weather Underground. Seems a lot more civil here, so I might be spending more of my time here.

Anyway, looks like ex-TD5 is going to perform the anticyclonic loop and end up back over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Personally, I've never seen a tropical system strengthen that close to the Central Gulf of Mexico coastline, so I'm not so sure I believe it will strengthen to a tropical storm. Experience tells me to expect nothing more than a tropical depression. If it moves far enough off-shore, then I'll like its chances more.

Hey! I'm MH09, but turned into MH10 here. Lol. Great to see you on. Anyhow, it looks like if it can distance itself enough from the coastline it will have a shot of attaining a name. ECMWF makes it a tropical cyclone, intensity is unclear, but it looks like a borderline TS.

Yeah, we'll see what happens. I've never seen one develop so closely to the coast before, but I'm not sure if I've ever seen a developing system move so slowly across the coastline either. The slow forward speed might end up helping its chances. One system that comes to mind is Fay a couple of years ago. She skirted the coastline for a long time, but never re-strengthened. However, I do believe ex-TD5 will be over water more than Fay was at that time.

It is definitely rare to see them form or strengthen so close to land, but it has happened before. Here are a few examples I could find:

Tropical Storm Beryl (1988): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif , http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _1339Z.jpg
Classified as a tropical cyclone while over southeast Louisiana, drifted southeast and strengthened to 50mph, then lifted back northwest.

Hurricane Danny (1997): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif , http://www.meto.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/9 ... 9_0018.gif
Formed offshore, but did most of its strengthening close to land. Became a hurricane at landfall on Louisiana and strengthened to a peak of 80mph before slowly drifting into and stalling over Mobile Bay.

Tropical Storm Amelia (1978): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Classified as a tropical cyclone just east of Brownsville, but reached peak intensity (50mph) while inland over Texas.