Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[ConvergenceZone]

WEll I predict this one will develop and model runs will show a curve away from the islands and US --- so because of that then I expect the board to drain out quite a bit and not show too much interest.

Yea gator, that's one bad things about fish storms that I've noticed in the past. Usually on recurves, the thread is pretty dead. This board is much busier if you have a depression expected to hit the US as opposed to a Catt 3,4, or 5 going out to sea. So yea, I don't expect the board to get much busier than it is right now once it become evident that the storms will curve out to sea.....

But I would think there would be at least a couple of more storms that threaten land before the season is over...

[KWT]

Oh I agree the 12z ECM is a shoe in recurve, just saying that the 12z is the only one that we could say for sure the system will recurve..and I think it gets further west before that occurs. Its a shame there has to be a threat to land to drum up any interest but there we go...

Its the slow brewers that keep low that need to be watched, like the system at 240hrs in the Caribbean on the ECM...though I think that won't verify...

[South Texas Storms]

when does the bermuda high usually strengthen? september?

[cycloneye]

KWT, what do you think about the wave behind this one that GFS,CMC and ECMWF show? Will it also recurve or it threats the Caribbean?

[gatorcane]

when does the bermuda high usually strengthen? september?

Well the strength varies with time. I would say the first two weeks in September is when it is typically the strongest....

[KWT]

cycloneye, if it develops quickly enough then it will almost certainly follow this one out to sea but if it stays weak and stays south then it could miss the connection for sure...but thats for another thread I suppose!

[alienstorm]

Late September and October will be the timeframe for mainland threats. Any system that forms now east of 50 will recurve.

[cycloneye]

...but thats for another thread I suppose!

Yes, when that time comes very soon, anyone can start a thread for that one that I suppose it will be another test invest down the road.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

FWIW here is the weakness on the models that drags this NW in the next 24-36hrs:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2414.png

Note the trough WSW of Portugal.

[CourierPR]

WEll I predict this one will develop and model runs will show a curve away from the islands and US --- so because of that then I expect the board to drain out quite a bit and not show too much interest.

By the way if you look at the ECMWF, if it were to go out another few frames should show a recurve, as a big upper-low is digging to the NW of it.

Bermuda High looks rather weak. Here in S. FL will watch the Caribbean or SE Bahamas for any threats, but as far as I am concerned the CV systems just can't make it across with the pattern we are in, may take a couple of weeks to break it.[/quote]


Gatorcane, I remember you predicting confidently that Alex would be no stronger than a depression, I prefer to wait a little longer and see how the pattern actually sets up.

[chaser1]

Hey there! Am typically posting more over at Flhurricane forum, but not nearly as active as here. Others here, I see from Weather Underground......

I strongly beleive it to be far premature to immediatley write off the next 2 or 3 waves coming off Africa during the upcoming week. In fact, the models have been consistantly trending more westward prior to today's 12Z run. In fact, upon close examination of last night's GFS 0Z run 500mb, and then comparing the same 500mb setup from today's GFS 12Z run, there is absolutly no way do I believe that the wave in question, will practically drift or limply move Westward at less than 10 knots, given it's position just under the southeast corner of a 594 ridge to its north and west. I could well be wrong, however many factors here are at play. Timing and speed of motion not the least of them, prior to even mentioning the GFS typical overplay of mid latitude troughs.

Even if such a system were to initiate off the African Coast as far north as 15-18N, short of an obvious trough, climatology would certainly indicate such a new surge to push a system westward at a decent clip, if not even WSW to begin with. Having faith in most of the models as I do, I think it prudent to sit back and look at longer trends, than any one single model run. It will not surprise me at all, for the 0Z run tonight to start to lean more south and west again. If and when I see mid level and upper air charts being fairly consistent, and then approaching 72 hours from verification - only then can I "almost" assume a foregone conclusion.

[Ivanhater]

Euro Ensemble hot off the presses

Shows further south...longer range has it sitting in the Bahamas at 360 hours.

Here is the Ensemble at 240

[KWT]

Thanks Ivanhater...but as I said on easternueswx, I suspect most of those ensemble members don't have a good picture of the strength of this wave...and thats going to be a key factor, if they are too weak then the ensembles will be a good deal toofar south...its hardly surprising the stronger runs in the early part of the run are further north...

[Ivanhater]

This is our wave on the eastern side over Africa

[Hugo1989]

What should we expect? closest to the Leeward Islands or the East Coast of the USA?

[KWT]

Quite a strong wave and looking like its heading off to the WNW right now for sure.

18z GFS coming out now, lets see what it does now...

[Hugo1989]

Quite a strong wave and looking like its heading off to the WNW right now for sure.

18z GFS coming out now, lets see what it does now...

But you think will come out of africa near 18N as assumed in the model?

[KWT]

Maybe not quite that far north but I do think it gains decent latitude, but it may well dip a little in latitude between say 25-40W.

GFS is a little more to the SW on this run so far but nothing too different just yet, maybe a little slower at strengthening.

[Vortex]

Ivanhater, Are you able to post the euro ensemble chart at 360?