Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Vortex]

GFS 18Z H+168 one heck of a storm in the making and still westbound...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[KWT]

Recurve looking very likely on the GFS, moving WNW and near 20N at say 43W...thats easily a recurve unless we get a very powerful ridge form, which isn't going to happen I suspect...

The one behind may have a shot at heading further west but it all depends on how much of a weakness is left behind...

[Wx_Warrior]

Click back on the 12z & 18z...what a difference (w/ 2nd one)

[KWT]

Both recurve though the 18z GFS gets to 60W this time before it recurves. I feel this one could well be a risk to Bermuda down the line but we will see...

The GFS really is keen on the weakness staying at 60W...like 1995 the weakness scoped up every single system pretty much without exception from the CV region.

[Wx_Warrior]

Could very well be

[lonelymike]

Could very well be

ROFL at your avatar WX Warrior. Made my day!

[hurricaneCW]

I guess I'll take a recurve at 60W, but a couple of runs ago the system made it all the way to Florida so nothing is set in stone, especially over a week out. There are a lot of things to look for, one is how far north the wave emerges, how strong the ridge to the north ends up being, how quickly the system develops, and how a wave behind it could interact with the front runner. It looks like the wave behind it might have a better chance at traveling west. It would have to form several days behind the first one so the weakness that's being created has enough time to fill in.

All in all, it looks like we might finally be tracking a real storm, the latest gfs run strongly develops the storm as early as day 4-5.

[KWT]

Yeah hurricanecw the one behind at least has a higher risk of getting further west if only because it starts out at a lower latitude, no doubt a thread will be made for that system as the time comes closer...

As for this one, I suspect that whilst its early days we could well see a major out of this briefly down the line, conditions look good to me!

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, Are you able to post the euro ensemble chart at 360?

I'm not sure where to find it...but I'll look around for it. Info came from a pro met so probably a pay site

[cycloneye]

The latest image of Test Invest PGI-30L provided by NRL.

[Ikester]

For some reason I just think fish storms are boring and a waste of my time. It's only the storms that have the prospect of affecting land that draws my attention. Makes me wanna know every intricate detail of the storm and trying to pinpoint EXACTLY how strong it could be, which part of the coast is threatened, and the dynamics at play. Not that I want destruction, but they certainly are far more interesting. I don't think it makes me any less of a weather nut...

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps moves system wsw.

Here's the facts:
1) Well organized wave traversing Africa into Senegal as I type.
2) All Global models develop this system Tue-Wed once Exiting Africa between 13.5-16N
3) Climatology- were entering the heart of the season

The unknowns:

1) How far North will the wave emerge?
2) Several models CMC, GFS, and Nogaps have all indicated a WSW motion beyone 25W depending on the model and runtime. How significant-to be determined.
3) Models have indicated for some time a pattern change. WHENEVER this is indicated were going to have wide margins run to run. For Example the 6Z 8/14 GFS placed the system very near FL. 18z GFS recurvature at 60W. ECM ensembles 12Z(Bahamas) Enuf said.

The point is way to s0on to say this is a fish or a threat!


18Z Nogaps Loop

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

Here is the image that I like the most because it updates every 15 minutes and it shows how far this wave is from the coastline to emerge. As I see it right now, it will take a day and a half to maybe two days to emerge depending on how is the speed.

[KWT]

Indeed Vortex but I like to think I have a pretty good grasp on synoptic set-ups and I'll just say I think 85-90% chance of a recurve, of course thats not to say we won't see the system come further west then the models expect, just I expect the troughing to be too strong still...

Now watch all the 00z suite move westwards!
ps, models have been much more impressive this year overall with most of the features compared to previous years, the model upgrades may well be helping things out.

[hurricaneCW]

For some reason I just think fish storms are boring and a waste of my time. It's only the storms that have the prospect of affecting land that draws my attention. Makes me wanna know every intricate detail of the storm and trying to pinpoint EXACTLY how strong it could be, which part of the coast is threatened, and the dynamics at play. Not that I want destruction, but they certainly are far more interesting. I don't think it makes me any less of a weather nut...

It's unfortunate but a lot of people feel the same way as you do. I know nobody wants anyone to get hurt/killed or several major damages, but a storm definitely gets more interesting if it has a shot at threatening land. I'm guilty of that to sometimes, but I'm more interested in seeing how things play out in regards to ultimate strength and track.

[Vortex]

Kwt,

I don't disagree with you. In any given season a powerful hurricane developing near CV is going to recurve east of 75W 85% of the time.

[StormClouds63]

For some reason I just think fish storms are boring and a waste of my time. It's only the storms that have the prospect of affecting land that draws my attention. Makes me wanna know every intricate detail of the storm and trying to pinpoint EXACTLY how strong it could be, which part of the coast is threatened, and the dynamics at play. Not that I want destruction, but they certainly are far more interesting. I don't think it makes me any less of a weather nut...

I'll take 2 fish (Danielle and Earl) over a Bonnie or Colin, any day. KWT draws an interesting comparison to 1995 and the wave train which consistently took the storms out to sea. I don't believe any CV system will threaten the U.S. in this very strange season of 2010. It will take a western Caribbean or GOM "home brew" to do so ... just my opinion.

[cycloneye]

That is what worries me,complacency. If the first CV systems go fishing,then the mentality of many people will be that nothing will be of a threat this season, and that is very dangerous.

[hurricaneCW]

But this isn't 1995. It's very similar to 1998 where we had several powerful storms. That year we had Hurricane Georges and Hurricane Bonnie, two long trackers. Someone also mentioned the closeness to 1999 where we obviously had Floyd. While both seasons featured a few early recurves, they had one or two storms that impacted land. This is why I believe we will see at least 1 or 2 Cape Verde type systems impact land this season. Sure the majority will go out to sea, but that's not unusual.

At least 75% of all Cape Verde developers go out to sea, but a few do make landfall. This season we're in a La Nina and are more likely to witness a U.S. impact.

[hurricanetrack]

Remember when the GFS showed Bill last year over and over running south and in to the Gulf? And it did not. Well, if the GFS is showing a system curing out over and over at this point, perhaps it could end up being just as wrong about that as it was about Bill. Yes, new GFS, but it seems to want to knock down heights as soon as it can. Maybe that will be the case, maybe not. Here we go though....lots of long nights ahead.