Being Mad at the Forecasters

[vacanechaser]

why beat up on the media for doing their jobs??? i dont get it... they report whats been released... nothing more... yes, they can blow things out of proportion, n doubt.. and yes there might be some with agendas for that... i dont know, not for me to say... but the forecasts should be viewed by everyone as a tool as to what may be coming during the next season...

see, the problem as i see it is that we are a nation of results now... you tell me right now what is gonna happen... i think what has become a problem is that we have been told in no uncertain terms that global warming is happening and that certain things are gonna happen, period...and thats not to say its not happening.... not trying to make that case here... but, you hear it all the time, tv, radio, newspaper... and how they say there is no debate on the matter... almost as if it is an exact science... most of us here know that science is not exact... and that these forecasts can be wrong... the forecasts, if understood by the general public can be of use... it should get people thinking that they need to take action now in preparing for what may happen in the future... but of course that does not happen.... unless you are a wxnut, people dont listen... they just dont... but if putting these numbers out there makes just one person stand up and take notice and buy extra water or batteries, hell, even make a plan for evacs, then i feel they have done their jobs...

it seems to me we want to blame the messenger when people dont listen, or dont understand the message... maybe one of these days things will change... but right now, that does not look to happen...


just my 2 cents


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Weatherfreak000]

This whole argument IMO stems from a desire to see accurate pre-season forecasting....endlessly fail. I'll explain why.


Don't you see the problem here? Can you tell me how a date will turn out before your on it? Do you know the winner of a football game before it starts or even whether you will see a snow event or not? The beauty and unpredictability of the tropics has been altered by computers. The computer age brought us models and sophisticated imagery that has made it something of a gambling event. That's what i'm really trying to point out here.


I believe some select individuals arguing the season isn't as active is because your gambling. You yourself make a pre-season forecast and you want to see it through. Of course, the same can be said for those desiring hyperactivity.

The difference is there are two other categories. 1. Those who suffered (Katrina, Rita) and don't want to suffer again. 2. Those who love hurricanes, and want to see mature storms... and yes let's face it. There are people that want landfall...that cannot seem too unrealistic...we are forecasting hurricanes here.

You can find this same sort of logic surrounding our model wars. This is CONSTANT and it happens ALL the time. Eventually, the models we love now will become inferior, when they do we will have new models and new wars. It's nothing more than a gamble when you support any one specific model. And much like the pro mets have constantly stated, doing so is remaining somewhat ignorant of the reason we are gifted with the models in the first place.


It is ALSO an innate feature of people to gamble, and debate. These two go hand and hand with each other.

[thetruesms]

it seems to me we want to blame the messenger when people dont listen, or dont understand the message... maybe one of these days things will change... but right now, that does not look to happen...

My concern is that many of the messengers don't understand the message they're bearing, though. Science reporters are forced to report stories from a wide range of fields, and can't possibly take the time to learn about everything they report on. Many TV "meteorologists" are just reporters that got stuck doing the weather (though this is improving). How can you possibly expect the proper message from messengers that don't get it, and really they aren't given the opportunity to get it. Compounding matters, with the 24/7 news cycle and the never-ending battle for ratings, even a good message can get blown out of proportion. Of course, you could go ahead and turn this around on the general public again - why have well-versed science reporters when it isn't a priority to the people that read/watch? Why put forth a tempered report when people won't watch that?

I think a good avenue is to encourage frequent communication between the meteorological field and the media, and attempt to create good, educated science reporting. As their knowledge improves, the reports will be better. Also, there needs to be work with educators to help them spur interest among children in the sciences again. An ideal world may not ever be achievable, but any steps forward is progress that should be made.

[DanKellFla]

Great thread.
Since when is weater an exact science? To anybody who wants to complain, go get your PhD (along with Fact) and you figure it out. I am baffled by this seasons predictions. It seems that EVERYBODY came to the same conclusion that seems to be wrong. (Ohhh please, lets not have 12 storms in the next few weeks!!!!) The post season analysis is going to be fascinating. So much will be learned from this season!

[StarmanHDB]

This will probably anger some people, but it's true so i'll say it.
A lot of the people that get angry over a forecasted storm that does not build-up to epic proportions are young and/or never been through a strong storm. They don't own property that could be destroyed, and they don't understand what it's like to live for a week or 10 days or more without electricity or the things that we take for granted in life. They don't understand the hardships that these storms cause, they just want to see one and see the damage. They think that it will be cool for them to say that they have been through it.

I personally have lived through more than my share of weak to moderate hurricanes, and would be totally happy to never have to go through it again. Once some of these people I disagree with live through one, and the aftermath, they won't be so quick to complain because a storm didn't live-up to the forecasts. Anyone who gets upset because they DON'T get a hurricane is either mentally off or has no idea what they are really getting themselves into.

GREAT POST!

Although I'm definitely a tropical weather novice, I am no novice to S2K. Prior to my joining, I was a curious lurker (now learning lurker) eagerly reading various posts on here and I came to a conclusion which, even after joining, I still hold valid....

Although no one in their right mind wants to see death and destruction, there are a number of people posting on these boards who, despite their good wishes to all of us living in tropical storm country, do indeed want to see storms develop, grow, and make their climactic landfall, not in rural areas, but in populated regions! I don't know their reasons, but for most of them, I'm pretty sure an interest in meteorology plays no part whatsoever. I'm sorry if I risk offending sensible posters; you all are the majority who make S2K the great site it is (thus, you are outside of this ilk) but, I for one am definitely so over reading so many of these "people I disagree with" angry comments whenever a storm poofs. Isn't it amazing that it's always the same people and the majority of them live no where near the tropics or near an ocean coastline? Better yet, some of them live in countries where, unless there is a sudden spike in plate tectonic activity, there has never been, nor ever will be any hurricanes. Again, I'm not saying that most of these people are not good people, but after reading their evident anger with each poof, one has to wonder what's hiding beneath their surface appearance! At the risk of sounding selfish, I like my roof, I like electricity (flowing through appliances as opposed to people), I like clean running water, I like fresh food, and I like my body in one piece with my lungs breathing, my heart beating, and my brain functioning!

Yes, the big storms are incredibly fascinating, but enough with the anger when they don't live up to your expectations! Remember, behind the pictures, the TV stories, and the statistical analysis, there are human beings who love living in near 365 day warmth, who love the oceans and beaches, who love the incredible natural diversity the tropics and subtropics offer, and who, despite the yearly danger, call these regions "home". Please remember this fact before you get all worked up over each unwanted poof!