ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[southerngale]

Send it to Central TX.. We need some rain again, bad! Would love to turn my sprinkler system off!

Your profile says Orange County.... you moved?

Edit: Nevermind... I think I remember now.

[Wx_Warrior]

That's my brother! (KFDM_MET) LOL

Glad its bone dry here....or we would really need scuba gear.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

We'll see some rain and certainly areas east of SE TX (on the wet side of the system) in LA will see even more if this pans out. I want to see how far west this actually makes it.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to me on radar that our MLC is dropping southward hugging the east central AL/ GA Border line!!

[Stormcenter]

Can you post the link?

Thanks!

Looks to me on radar that our MLC is dropping southward hugging the east central AL/ GA Border line!!

[Pearl River]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

It does appear to be drifting south.

[Ivanhater]

Should drop down to Apalachicola and ride the coast along the Florida Panhandle westward. I suspect a lot of Flood watches to be posted soon all across the northern Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

Sunset...

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps starts winding it up South of Pensacola





18z Canadan has some intense rainfall

[micktooth]

Any word on possible rainfall totals in the New Orleans area? Brings back nasty memories of my old house flooding from training thunderstorms in 1995 and Allison in 2001.

[StormClouds63]

Lake Charles NWS:

INTERESTING FEATURE HEADING OUR WAY BY EARLY TO MID OF NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ALABAMA WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF T.D.
5 APPEARS THAT IT WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THIS SLOW MOVING FEATURE COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. HPC FOUR TO FIVE QPF OUTLOOK SUGGEST TOTALS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS A FEATURE COULD BRING THE AREA A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT. STAY TUNED.

[Steve]

On the larger, regional radar, it looks like the southward descent still has an eastward component (SSE?). You can see that the front north of there is pressuring the system back down south.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

[MississippiWx]

On the larger, regional radar, it looks like the southward descent still has an eastward component (SSE?). You can see that the front north of there is pressuring the system back down south.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

Yeah, it should move SSE for several hours before commencing a more true southward motion. How long it stays on that southward motion in the key. The circulation is maintaining itself very well over land and it actually looks tropical at the moment. That will only help its chances once/if it emerges over water.

[Steve]

>>Yeah, it should move SSE for several hours before commencing a more true southward motion. How long it stays on that southward motion in the key. The circulation is maintaining itself very well over land and it actually looks tropical at the moment. That will only help its chances once/if it emerges over water.

Yeah, I'm certainly interested in how far east it gets throwing in the assumption that potentially the more time over water, the more chance of regeneration into something material.

[MississippiWx]

Just studied the steering currents that are forecast out to 72 hours. By the looks of things, ex-TD5 should begin emerging out over the Gulf by 00z Monday (this time tomorrow) and should be south of Pensacola by Monday evening. By Tuesday afternoon, steering currents should become weaker and slow the pace of the system. Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, the system should be making landfall around the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. Looking at the shear forecast, upper level conditions should be favorable to very favorable for tropical development. Going by the current steering forecast, I have to believe it will emerge over water. Just how far it emerges over water will determine the strength. If the center is able to move 50 miles or more off the coast, I like the chances of it becoming a minimal to moderate strength tropical storm. All of this is subject to change if the steering currents change between now and then.

[Dean4Storms]

Well looking at the current situation compared to what each model was portraying it looks like the EURO and CMC could be correct it bringing it down near Appalachicola. If that occurs it will have more time over water. The GFS has it moving more SW toward P'Cola, don't see that happening at all.

[MississippiWx]

Well looking at the current situation compared to what each model was portraying it looks like the EURO and CMC could be correct it bringing it down near Appalachicola. If that occurs it will have more time over water. The GFS has it moving more SW toward P'Cola, don't see that happening at all.

Yeah, the steering currents I used were from the GFS. So if the steering currents from the GFS are incorrect, then so am I! LOL. If it emerges closer to the Big Bend, then we are going to have a bigger problem on our hands...

[KWT]

Well looking at the current situation compared to what each model was portraying it looks like the EURO and CMC could be correct it bringing it down near Appalachicola. If that occurs it will have more time over water. The GFS has it moving more SW toward P'Cola, don't see that happening at all.

If it does get over water like those models are suggesting, then no reason why this one doesn't have a shot at redeveloping, its as simple as that really, conditions look good for possibly redevelopment.

[Steve]

Dean,

Was that the 18z or the general consensus of today's runs?

>>Just how far it emerges over water will determine the strength. If the center is able to move 50 miles or more off the coast, I like the chances of it becoming a minimal to moderate strength tropical storm. All of this is subject to change if the steering currents change between now and then.

I'd have to agree with you. What I'm not sure of anymore is weaker systems close to land because it seems that earlier in the season the heat coming off the land helps circulation either with landfalling or paralleling systems. I've got some ideas, but I just don't understand the phenomena well enough right now. But more and more we've been seeing some tightening probably either due to frictional effects or heat exchange. But this should give us some opportunity to watch the evolution of a coast hugging storm and to see if there's anything unexpected with tightening or loosening of the center and how and when it reaches its strongest pulse. Will be an interesting 3-4 days while we wait for the meat of the season.

[cycloneye]

Here are the last two positions by Best Track. Is not climbing in latitude anymore.

AL, 05, 2010081418, , BEST, 0, 330N, 855W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2010081500, , BEST, 0, 329N, 854W, 20, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest