ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Here are the last two positions by Best Track. Is not climbing in latitude anymore.

AL, 05, 2010081418, , BEST, 0, 330N, 855W, 20, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2010081500, , BEST, 0, 329N, 854W, 20, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Nice find. That indicates a southeast motion.

[Dean4Storms]

Also shows a slight pressure drop, but this is the time of day for that.

[Dean4Storms]

Dean,

Was that the 18z or the general consensus of today's runs?

>>Just how far it emerges over water will determine the strength. If the center is able to move 50 miles or more off the coast, I like the chances of it becoming a minimal to moderate strength tropical storm. All of this is subject to change if the steering currents change between now and then.

I'd have to agree with you. What I'm not sure of anymore is weaker systems close to land because it seems that earlier in the season the heat coming off the land helps circulation either with landfalling or paralleling systems. I've got some ideas, but I just don't understand the phenomena well enough right now. But more and more we've been seeing some tightening probably either due to frictional effects or heat exchange. But this should give us some opportunity to watch the evolution of a coast hugging storm and to see if there's anything unexpected with tightening or loosening of the center and how and when it reaches its strongest pulse. Will be an interesting 3-4 days while we wait for the meat of the season.

That has been the GFS position with it all along, here is todays 18z at 30hrs.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... nty030.gif


Then just 24 hrs........

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... nty024.gif

[Dean4Storms]

The crazy thing and what the NWS offices around here have been scratching their heads over is that the GFS is more bullish in strength with this scenario than the EURO with its more eastern Panhandle push back offshore.

I'll have to say that the EURO hasn't been stellar with picking up systems and their depth so far this year from what I've seen. It was way behind on closing off TD5 when it was near the Keys.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

From the Day 3 Forecast from HPC:

CENTRAL GULF COAST....THE MID TROP DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MAKE
SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS. A SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO FORM IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. HEAVY PRECIP IS INDICATED OVER SOUTHERN
MS AND ESPECIALLY LA.

[MississippiWx]

00z NAM is taking ex-TD5 further offshore and thus allowing it to strengthen more:

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yes it is...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 Hr NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_072l.gif

[redheadcloud]

Could this become a major hurricane. Discover news says official forecast calls for as many as 7 major hurricanes in next two months! There have not been any yet. I share the story -> http://news.discovery.com/earth/noaa-lo ... eason.html

[ROCK]

Could this become a major hurricane. Discover news says official forecast calls for as many as 7 major hurricanes in next two months! There have not been any yet. I share the story -> http://news.discovery.com/earth/noaa-lo ... eason.html

major? it will need to get way offshore in order for development. None of the models show this so guidance is against you.....Since its your 2nd post I will cut you some slack....

[StormTracker]

This season will go down as 1 of the wackiest in the history of hurricane seasons if that piece of crap system comes back & develops after all that it didn't do on it's 1st run!(This comment is being made after about 2-3 days away from "Talkin Tropics)!!! REALLY!!!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Chances that this becomes a hurricane are very slim, let alone a major hurricane. Chances are that this will not exceed moderate tropical storm status (50-60mph), and that is being generous.

[cycloneye]

00z NAM 84 hours makes a landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border.

[wxman57]

Could this become a major hurricane. Discover news says official forecast calls for as many as 7 major hurricanes in next two months! There have not been any yet. I share the story -> http://news.discovery.com/earth/noaa-lo ... eason.html

No, and no one is forecasting 7 major hurricanes. NOAA is forecasting 5 major hurricanes. Do I have to explain standard deviation again?

[Stormcenter]

This seems pretty reasonable in my opinion unless it were to move further out into the
GOM and slow down/stall.

Chances that this becomes a hurricane are very slim, let alone a major hurricane. Chances are that this will not exceed moderate tropical storm status (50-60mph), and that is being generous.

[redheadcloud]

Could this become a major hurricane. Discover news says official forecast calls for as many as 7 major hurricanes in next two months! There have not been any yet. I share the story -> http://news.discovery.com/earth/noaa-lo ... eason.html

No, and no one is forecasting 7 major hurricanes. NOAA is forecasting 5 major hurricanes. Do I have to explain standard deviation again?

Well i say "as many as" 7 if you would read my post more carefully. And this is true 7 falls in the range of the forecast 3 to 7 major hurricanes. You can see for yourself if you don't believe me. I share the NOAA forecast with you -> http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

It say very clearly "3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)" Sounds like they mean for a BIG season to me. Do you disagree?

By no means whatsoever is it wrong for me to say NOAA is calling for "as many as" 7 storms because i am just quoting them right? Unless I am missing something If I am then I apologize to everyone. It sounds like this gulf storm will not be a major. Thank you for the scoop.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

00z GFS trending much further south putting it just south of Louisiana as Tropical Storm Danielle in 54 hours.

[hurrican19]

Send it to Central TX.. We need some rain again, bad! Would love to turn my sprinkler system off!

Your profile says Orange County.... you moved?

Edit: Nevermind... I think I remember now.

Yep, noved to Northwest Austin a few years back.. Need to change my profile, thanks for the reminder!

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Landfall at 66 hours over central Louisiana still as a TS:

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's not happening. Don't see why there will be any development here in the GOM from this.