Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Here is a panoramic image of the whole African Continent where you may pick up the next wave that GFS,ECMWF and CMC develop behind our wave we are watching here.Of course, that one will have a new thread.

[KWT]

Remember when the GFS showed Bill last year over and over running south and in to the Gulf? And it did not. Well, if the GFS is showing a system curing out over and over at this point, perhaps it could end up being just as wrong about that as it was about Bill. Yes, new GFS, but it seems to want to knock down heights as soon as it can. Maybe that will be the case, maybe not. Here we go though....lots of long nights ahead.

Of course, but what needs to be noted is the ECM also looks very troughy over the W.Atlantic and looks pretty similar to the GFS on its 12z run, but there is indeed plenty of time for the models to flip yet for sure!

[cycloneye]

Is not even out of Africa and already, the colors are elevated.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Looking good for development.

[TheBurn]

[JonathanBelles]

I havent been on a lot today. Can somebody tell me what a PGI is or stands for, and why this wave is being given special attention as a test invest?

[cycloneye]

I havent been on a lot today. Can somebody tell me what a PGI is or stands for, and why this wave is being given special attention as a test invest?

Johnnathan, at link below you will get the whole explanation about this new concept of testing tropical waves. Is a neat site with many tools for each individual test invest. In this case is test invest PGI-30L. Also below is the link to this test being done for this particular wave.

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/marsupial.html

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI30L.html

[Ptarmigan]

I am sure this one if it becomes a hurricane will recurve and become a fish storm. Any reasons why a develop tropical cyclone will be more likely to be influenced by upper level high pressure than a tropical wave?

[hurricaneCW]

Wouldn't a developing storm or a strong storm more likely feel the high to its north. I think a meteorologist before explained that a stronger storm is more likely to go further west than a weaker one (unless it's a wave) because it sharpens the gradient and strengthens the high to its north. Anyone may feel free to correct me.

[ROCK]

the 18z is developing this way to fast IMO.....vs the 12z....not sold on a recurve just yet...

[cycloneye]

the 18z is developing this way to fast IMO.....vs the 12z....not sold on a recurve just yet...

Lets see what the 00z package brings.

[Vortex]

awaiting 00z model runs...

[ConvergenceZone]

Here she comes..., some decent convection offshore as well, not sure if anything will become of it though...

[cycloneye]

Fast foward from the above image that updates every six hours is the below one that updates every 15 minutes, that you can see in real time the latest on how the test invest PGI-30L wave looks and where it is.

[cycloneye]

14 runs in a row from GFS developing this wave

Here we go with the 00z run. It starts at 54 hours.

[cycloneye]

90 hours.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

114 hours, a very spread out subtropical ridge indicative of a negative NAO.

[cycloneye]

132 hours.

[cycloneye]

150 hours. The wave behind begins to take shape.

[cycloneye]

174 hours. We have a strong hurricane at this point.