ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[mvtrucking]

Is that our system moving southeast close to Montgomery, Al? Or am I looking at the wrong place?

[MississippiWx]

Is that our system moving southeast close to Montgomery, Al? Or am I looking at the wrong place?

You are correct.

[mvtrucking]

Thank you MississippiWx!

[BigA]

The important thing that I think we should pick up this evening is that the models have trended toward a solution that takes exTD5 over water for a decent interval of time, enough time for it to gain TS strength.

Hopefully tomorrow will either confirm or reverse this trend.

[MississippiWx]

Thank you MississippiWx!

Welcome. That's what this forum is here for...asking questions and posting information.

[xcool22]

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0Z CMC

[Ikester]

CMC looks much further south, too. Hmmmmm

[Florida1118]

Back up to 20%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY
AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

CMC looks much further south, too. Hmmmmm

looks more plausible scenario exiting around the FL Panhandle. a little more west this run also....

[Stormcenter]

You had to know this was coming from the NHC considering all of the model consensus.
As I said a few days ago it should make for an interesting week ahead.

Back up to 20%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY
AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[dixiebreeze]

WSR-88D Radar Outage Notification / Free Text Message
Issued by NWS Tallahassee, FL


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000
NOUS62 KTAE 131445
FTMTLH
Message Date: Aug 13 2010 14:45:49

TALLAHASSEE RADAR TOOK A LIGHNTING STRIKE LAST NIGHT AND THE ET`S HAVE JUST NOTI
FIED US THAT SEVERAL MAJOR COMPONETS HAVE BEEN KNOCKED OUT. AT THIS POINT IT LOO
KS AS THOUGH THE RADAR WILL DOWN FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.

[KWT]

Models a little furthur south today with thier output and most would suggest this one redevelops as it gets a good 24-36hrs over water.

This one will need to be watched very closely!

[ColinDelia]

Floater is back on

[KFDM Meteorologist]

6Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[CourierPR]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's not happening. Don't see why there will be any development here in the GOM from this.

Gatorcane, you might just see why very soon. The NHC has bumped the chance to 20% and it's going back over water.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see that most WFO's this morning are discounting the GFS and NAM (offshore) in favor of a weaker Euro suggestion (Coastal hugger).

[Frank P]

Interesting how the northern GOM convection has been on the increase all morning...

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND
COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[StormingB81]

Ok question....has a storm system ever gone onto land. stop back strack back into the ocean and became a storm or will this be a first IF it does at all happen?