Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

I think a new thread may be required for later today about the wave that is now in Sudan.

[gatorcane]

Perhaps we should have modified the old adage a bit to say "Powerful storms come to those who wait." In any event, the Atlantic is going to start cranking, and while it's hard to be sure about the tracks of any of these cyclones (even the first one, really), we can be reasonably confident that the switch, so long awaited, and in many cases feared, has been turned "on." And in a La Nina, it appears the MDR on switch can stay on a bit later than in neutral years.

Regardless of exactly what transpires, the next month is sure to be fascinating.

well said and I agree 100%.

[Fego]

This is addictive, now I'm curious about ECMWF 00Z run.

[ConvergenceZone]

Perhaps we should have modified the old adage a bit to say "Powerful storms come to those who wait." In any event, the Atlantic is going to start cranking, and while it's hard to be sure about the tracks of any of these cyclones (even the first one, really), we can be reasonably confident that the switch, so long awaited, and in many cases feared, has been turned "on." And in a La Nina, it appears the MDR on switch can stay on a bit later than in neutral years.

Regardless of exactly what transpires, the next month is sure to be fascinating.

Well if we do have 2 or 3 named storms active at one time, between the model threads, the recon threads and discussion threads, this board is going to be pretty crazy.....It's going to be tough to keep up...

[cycloneye]

Rock, what is your take on the parade at the 00z run?

[ConvergenceZone]

Has anyone even thought about how much dust is coming off the African coast?!?! It's significant into the Cape Verde Islands.

There is SAL, but it's less than it was before, plus with the MJO phase we will be entering, that will aid in development.

[cycloneye]

Here is the loop of the 00z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ROCK]

Rock, what is your take on the parade at the 00z run?

sold on furture Danielle recurve now....to many runs now in a row to discount IMO.....like I said a few pages back the future Earl looks to sneak through under Dee with the high building in faster behind Dee's exit.

This does not bold well for the Northern Carib islands as any deviation west/ slower development/ lower lat track would mean a possible track straight thru the islands and into FL as a formidable hurricane....very concerning model run Luis IMO....

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanx for posting all the model runs Luis...
I think Ivanhater finally took a much deserved break tonight.....

[cycloneye]

Rock, what is your take on the parade at the 00z run?

sold on furture Danielle recurve now....to many runs now in a row to discount IMO.....like I said a few pages back the future Earl looks to sneak through under Dee with the high building in faster behind Earl's exit.

This does not bold well for the Northern Carib islands as any deviation west/ slower development/ lower lat track would mean a possible track straight thru the islands and into FL as a formidable hurricane....very concerning model run Luis IMO....

And then there is a third one entering the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Thanx for posting all the model runs Luis...
I think Ivanhater finally took a much deserved break tonight.....

Well,I wont wait for the EURO. But at least I stayed for the GFS and CMC.

[Florida1118]

I remember me thinking that I cant wait for some tropics action. Now seeing the model run (yes I know its far out), Im starting to wish the tropics held off.

[ROCK]

Rock, what is your take on the parade at the 00z run?

sold on furture Danielle recurve now....to many runs now in a row to discount IMO.....like I said a few pages back the future Earl looks to sneak through under Dee with the high building in faster behind Earl's exit.

This does not bold well for the Northern Carib islands as any deviation west/ slower development/ lower lat track would mean a possible track straight thru the islands and into FL as a formidable hurricane....very concerning model run Luis IMO....

And then there is a third one entering the Caribbean.

the third one is a low lat cruiser for sure.....probably to far south to feel any weakness. If it can develop a solid core before entering the Ecarib death zone, then I would suspect a typical climo track into the GOM. Again that one is way way out there....

it was only a matter of time before the GFS began sniffing out what we all have been saying....I suspect some long nights, anxiety and the typical board chaos for the rest of the year....I feel for you mods....

[ROCK]

Thanx for posting all the model runs Luis...
I think Ivanhater finally took a much deserved break tonight.....

Well,I wont wait for the EURO. But at least I stayed for the GFS and CMC.

EURO out at 1:30am CST here.....not going to stay up for that guy....we need to conserve our energy for when it counts in about a week and half...

[cycloneye]

I have an announcement to make about the posting of the long range timeframes. After the wave of this topic goes out of the model runs, the peeps can go to the long range models thread and post the rest of those runs as those dont have anything related to the wave PGI-30L. I think is better to do it that way to not cluter this thread.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC

Strait west until end of run at 144 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[jaxfladude]

Anyone what a boring season now?

[Ikester]

:uarrow:
Anyone what a boring season now?

Nothing has popped yet and there has been good model runs for development before this and they fizzled or were eaten by ULL/TUTT's. While I'm not saying there won't be development, I'm not going to hop on board and say 2 majors and a depression by the middle part of next week. If I remember correctly, Colin had good model support for being our first major until...well, it wasn't.

[ROCK]

that CMC run is a typical recurve scenario at about 55W..the weakness will be there....

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow:
Anyone what a boring season now?

Nothing has popped yet and there has been good model runs for development before this and they fizzled or were eaten by ULL/TUTT's. While I'm not saying there won't be development, I'm not going to hop on board and say 2 majors and a depression by the middle part of next week. If I remember correctly, Colin had good model support for being our first major until...well, it wasn't.

I know!
Hopefully it is a major bust, but the core of the season is just about here!