Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

120 hours.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

144 hours, PGI30L near if not a hurricane, the wave behind begins to come into the picture.

[cycloneye]

144 hours. It looks more slower in terms of motion in this run.

[Vortex]

H+144 Systems contines westward...

2nd system emerging off African coast late week....More concerned about this wave.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[KWT]

Find it hard to go against the very strong model agreement now for a developing system but also a fish system, probably will get to about 60W before recurving but Bermuda does need to watch this, I think a track close to Colin and in that case a track out to 60-65W is quite possible IMO, so probably will get recon with this one!

[cycloneye]

168 hours. Remember to post about the second wave at Long Range models thread.

[ConvergenceZone]

There were some folks late last night who said they were interested in what the Euro had to say, but since the models were never posted, I'm assuming the EURO wasn't near as bullish on development?

[cycloneye]

180 hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, The 2nd wave looks higher in latitude on this morning's run....

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe the EURO will turn bullish on development within the next couple of days....

[cycloneye]

Long range 288 hours.

There goes PGI-30L.

[KWT]

Hmmm, The 2nd wave looks higher in latitude on this morning's run....

Yeah thats way north of every single other model...think its a poor run in that respect given how far south the other models are and the GFS has been...probably the GFS usual overdoing of the upper trough...

CZ, ECM develops a decent system by its standards, nothing too outlandish but probably would be a hurricane I'd imagine by 240hrs.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, the 2nd wave looked soo much more stronger on last night's run and much much further south. the 2nd way is looking more like a recurve too....Guess last night's worry is no longer a worry.....

[KWT]

Whilst this maybe the wrong thread, lets say the 12z is a outlier, maybe not in terms of strength but the models and ensembles really heavily suggest a threat from that wave down the line...

[ConvergenceZone]

Whilst this maybe the wrong thread, lets say the 12z is a outlier, maybe not in terms of strength but the models and ensembles really heavily suggest a threat from that wave down the line...

Yea that's true KWT. There is always the third system behind it, which seems to have a better shot at non-recurvature....

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think it does any good to over analyze one gfs run that's over 10 days out. This run looks very faulty after day 8. I'm still waiting to actually witness an actual storm form, not just model speculation. The wave should emerge within the next day or so.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think it does any good to over analyze one gfs run that's over 10 days out. This run looks very faulty after day 8. I'm still waiting to actually witness an actual storm form, not just model speculation. The wave should emerge within the next day or so.

yea, that's true. I think even one of the Mets pointed this out a couple of days ago regarding our bullish comments on the GFS. Who knows, we may not get any development out of any of these 3 waves. Too early to say....

[hurricaneCW]

Well considering we're just now entering the "meat" of the season, we should definitely see at least one of those waves develop or we're heading towards that big seasonal bust that I've spoken about. Everything has aligned and is now favorable in the Atlantic with the upper level winds, the lack of SAL, and the positive MJO pulse, plus, we have climatology on our side.

The models have consistently been developing the first wave for days now. Still, we may actually get Earl out of the African wave as it's starting to look increasingly likely that the remnants of TD-5 may become Danielle over the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC continues to develop PGI-30L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Ok now that CMC is very interesting because the Azores High strengthens between 96-144hrs which shunts the system WSW...

Also would suggest the 2nd wave has a much higher then average threat down the line.