ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

You have to be careful with a system that's generating so much convection to in the water already. It usually means the pattern is conducive for rapid organization and I wouldn't be surprised if we see this ramp up to a strong tropical storm (65-70 mph).

[HouTXmetro]

So I guess we can throw out the GFS and EURO which shows upper TX coast?

[Dean4Storms]

Intensity is always one of the hardest things to nail down with TC's and I think this one may surprise us. If it gets at least 50 miles offshore and the steering to the west is as weak as advertised by the HWRF and doesn't landfall until Wednesday as shown by that model this could very well get close to Hurricane status!!!

[Dean4Storms]

You have to wonder how much the high heat energy coming into this from the NW will play a role in deepening this quickly!!

[KWT]

This will be one of those interesting systems to watch because we've got no end of obs to watch this with as well as radar to watch this one develop.

A good 7-10 inches looks a good bet in parts of E.LA as this one comes ashore, flooding is gonna be an issue, perhaps a big one...

[Wx_Warrior]

12z is not upper texas coast...FWIW

[sjmballer]

here is the nam--ster take on tdex ...http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

[mpic]

Will ask again...is the high over SE Texas going to move?

[bayoubebe]

When I look at this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html it looks right below us(SE LA). Like it is heading at us now, but then what I read is saying Tuesday? Forgive me for not having the same knowledge level as the rest of you guys on here , but could someone please explain to me why what I see(on the Gulf loop) and read appear to be different.
Thanks.

[KWT]

12z is not upper texas coast...FWIW

Yeah, a touch further north on this run then the last run so probably a touch weaker, track due west into LA just like the GFDL actually...probably would develop but not much more then 30-35kts.

[Dean4Storms]

When I look at this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html it looks right below us(SE LA). Like it is heading at us now, but then what I read is saying Tuesday? Forgive me for not having the same knowledge level as the rest of you guys on here , but could someone please explain to me why what I see(on the Gulf loop) and read appear to be different.
Thanks.

You are seeing the trough that extends from the Low over SW GA southwest toward LA. Go back to that loop and click on Fronts at the top of the loop and you will see the trough denoted as a dotted line. Convection is firing all along the trough, but the real player will be that low once it emerges into the Gulf, that will bring you much more rain and winds.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Very impressive equatorward outflow, kinda' reminds me of Isabel.

[sphelps8681]

So I guess we can throw out the GFS and EURO which shows upper TX coast?

Is the GFS the only model showing upper texas coast? Does it not handle this type storm with it being so close to the coast? I thought it performed pretty well a lot of the time.

[bayoubebe]

When I look at this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html it looks right below us(SE LA). Like it is heading at us now, but then what I read is saying Tuesday? Forgive me for not having the same knowledge level as the rest of you guys on here , but could someone please explain to me why what I see(on the Gulf loop) and read appear to be different.
Thanks.

You are seeing the trough that extends from the Low over SW GA southwest toward LA. Go back to that loop and click on Fronts at the top of the loop and you will see the trough denoted as a dotted line. Convection is firing all along the trough, but the real player will be that low once it emerges into the Gulf, that will bring you much more rain and winds.

Thank you very much. I clicked on Fronts and see what you are talking about.

edit: Fronts

[tolakram]

Something is going on down there.

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Dean4Storms]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS IS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (REMNANTS OF TD5) IS NOW PROGGED TO
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE WATERS BEFORE HEADING
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS HAS LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS UPGRADED THIS TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE WEAK CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA
AROUND THE SOUTHERN GA/AL STATE LINE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS SHORT-TERM
PERIOD AND SHOW THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING...THEN OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS COME
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

[wxman57]

So I guess we can throw out the GFS and EURO which shows upper TX coast?

GFS takes it inland east of Vermilion Bay then northward across Lafayette then NW to NE TX, not into the upper TX coast.

[KWT]

Looks like Isabel...well thats a new one, a weak low being compared with a major
hurricane

Good to see this one in the active forum again where it belongs!

Anyway something does look like its getting going down there...

[Dean4Storms]

When I look at this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html it looks right below us(SE LA). Like it is heading at us now, but then what I read is saying Tuesday? Forgive me for not having the same knowledge level as the rest of you guys on here , but could someone please explain to me why what I see(on the Gulf loop) and read appear to be different.
Thanks.

You are seeing the trough that extends from the Low over SW GA southwest toward LA. Go back to that loop and click on Fronts at the top of the loop and you will see the trough denoted as a dotted line. Convection is firing all along the trough, but the real player will be that low once it emerges into the Gulf, that will bring you much more rain and winds.

Thank you very much. I clicked on loop and see what you are talking about.

You're welcome......Along that trough you will have enhanced convergence and good deal of rain and may even see some mini vorticies develop along it, but the big player is that spinning low over the very SW tip of Ga just about to drop into the FL Panhandle. Once that low gets offshore overnight many of us expect to see it develop into a TD and then possibly a TS.

[Macrocane]

In WV loop you can see the anticyclonic flow that's providing good outflow:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

The Upper level winds indicate that an anticyclone may be trying to form

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=

The wind shear is dropping in the area:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

If the trend continues I can see why the models are still developing the system.