Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Whilst this maybe the wrong thread, lets say the 12z is a outlier, maybe not in terms of strength but the models and ensembles really heavily suggest a threat from that wave down the line...

The reason that the other wave does not develop is because the outflow from PGI30L shears it, since PGI30L goes slower in this run they essentially get too close to each other.

In other news, PGI30L should be emerging tomorrow afternoon, it will likely try to organize right away, but will likely organize slowly due to the colder waters it will be emerging into. Most of the intensification will take place in a couple of days, if it does develop, which seems like a safe bet at this point. Track-wise, I'll be looking for a recurvature from this, but that may change if and when it becomes a tropical cyclone.

[KWT]

The 12z GFS ensembles are a good deal further west with this then the GFS operational run but that doesn't mean much given the op run has a good deal higher resolution...

It would be interesting to see what the control run did though...

[cycloneye]

The latest from NRL on PGI-30L.

[KWT]

Looks to have climbed NW...however there is a lot of uncertainty as to how this one evolves looking at the models, they aren't actually all that clear cut still, despite all agreeing with development.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS continues to develop waves #1-#2.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ConvergenceZone]

As Luis mentioned earlier, the convection has waned, but the structure is still there, which is important....I'm thinking the first wave may emerge tomorrow afternoon?

[KWT]

ECM suggests a very odd evolution with another system trying to develop a system ahead of the first wave which stunts the system we are watching and prevents it from really developing.

A pretty unlikely solution IMO given no other models have anything close to that I think its probably unlikely to come off.

[cycloneye]

So we can disregard the 12z EURO and then wait for the 00z to see if it repeats or has another scenario.

[KWT]

Here is 168hrs, notice the system ahead of it:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

Its the only model that has that presentation and the 1st system developing, so unless the ECM is the sole model to spot this, its probably wrong...despite it being the best model....

[dwsqos2]

What if it's the beginning of a trend? The 12Z GFS was much weaker than the 6Z run.

[Macrocane]

Take a look at this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Now tell me, what have we seen this season that is not present in the Atlantic now?.... Yes, upper level lows I think that there is only a small one over Hispaniola, the only problem that this systems may have is the dry air but that is less of a problem than the wind shear.

[KWT]

The TUTT is all but gone now thats for sure Macrocane.

Also FWIW the ECM takes longer to develop this due to developing a feature ahead of it which tracks into the Caribbean...whilst the ECM doesn't get it going till 192hrs to any great degree then tracks it NW into the open seas!

[cycloneye]

The TUTT is all but gone now thats for sure Macrocane.

Also FWIW the ECM takes longer to develop this due to developing a feature ahead of it which tracks into the Caribbean...whilst the ECM doesn't get it going till 192hrs to any great degree then tracks it NW into the open seas!

I say that is a somewhat weird run KWT. That system in front is a mystery as any other model shows it.

[KWT]

The only thing I will say cycloneye is the ECM yesterday also showed a similar thing happening, the 00z ECM doesn't get that forward wave going till 240hrs FWIW:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[cycloneye]

Who said it was dead?

[KWT]

Yeah it was probably just Dmin that was weakening the wave, now we have had a few hours of sunset convection is redeveloping again.

[UpTheCreek]

To my admittedly untrained eye, it's not looking so impressive.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=prev&REGION=AFRICA&SECTOR=Overview&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SIZE=Full&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8&PATH=CONUS/focus_regions/AFRICA/Overview/vis_ir_background/meteo8&ARROW=next&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

[Vortex]

18Z GFS getting ready to run...

[Blown Away]

I believe this is the farthest east we have ever started tracking a system. If this ends becoming a long tracking CV storm imagine how many pages this thread will be! New record for sure!

[cycloneye]

I believe this is the farthest east we have ever started tracking a system. If this ends becoming a long tracking CV storm imagine how many pages this thread will be! New record for sure!

Well,when a invest is up for this,this thread will be locked.