ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Ah not quite Dean, an invest got to 106 pages before

Radar is looking decent right now, just need to get this one over water and to tigthen up the circulation a little further.

[F-dubWxGuy]

Got a decent little shower here in Shalimar, just north of Fort Walton Beach, FL. And it looks like I got more coming.

[Kludge]

So I guess we can throw out the GFS and EURO which shows upper TX coast?

HouTXmetro i was wondering that very same thing.

When the models call for a SE TX landfall, many on this forum dismiss the models, but when a LA hit is progged by the models, they're "right on the money". So... Why look at models if you already know the future?

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH OUR DEPICTION OF THE
REMAINS OF TD FIVE FORECAST NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE SHORT
RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS REMAINS OUR COMPROMISE TRACK AFTER
COORDINATION WITH TPC. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO FOCUS SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY. HOWEVER...THIS COMPROMISE GUIDANCE TRACK
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NEWD...RECENT ECMWF AND DGEX RUNS THAT ARE MUCH FARTHER
SWWD INTO TX...AND LATEST 06/12 UTC GFS RUNS THAT HAVE TRENDED WWD
FROM ITS RESPECTIVE 00 UTC GFS RUN.

[KWT]

Got a decent little shower here in Shalimar, just north of Fort Walton Beach, FL. And it looks like I got more coming.

Yeah radar shows quite alot of rain coming down over the next 12-24hrs, probably a good few inches coming in the next 24hrs for W.Florida panhandle as the system comes down.

[Nimbus]

The center seems to be dropping south quite rapidly its down near Destin already. Further south it drops the longer the track arc will be. Parts of Texas may get in the middle of the cone yet.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The LLC appears to be approaching the Florida/Alabama state line as per latest radar images.

[Portastorm]

Given the current low level flow, it's pretty easy to understand why this is getting pushed south into the Gulf.



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[KWT]

The LLC appears to be approaching the Florida/Alabama state line as per latest radar images.

Yeah the Sat.imagery suggests the same location as well, the southern part of the broad circulation now heading into the water again, won't be long before more of the circulation is in the juice...

[perk]

So I guess we can throw out the GFS and EURO which shows upper TX coast?

HouTXmetro i was wondering that very same thing.

When the models call for a SE TX landfall, many on this forum dismiss the models, but when a LA hit is progged by the models, they're "right on the money". So... Why look at models if you already know the future?

The Euro has called for a Texas hit on it's last couple of runs.

[hurricaneCW]

The LLC appears to be approaching the Florida/Alabama state line as per latest radar images.

Yeah the Sat.imagery suggests the same location as well, the southern part of the broad circulation now heading into the water again, won't be long before more of the circulation is in the juice...

That explains the flaring up around the center. Might even be a TS tomorrow.

[shell70]

Well this should be interesting say the least. First day of school for the kids in my area along with a possibility of TS warning on the G.C. if this thing develops. Wow!

[rolltide]

Been getting heavy rain with some wind and thunder here in P-cola. Weatherunderground rader showed a tornado vortex signature with a storm cell just south of Gulf Shores a short time ago.

[wxman57]

The Euro forecast a Texas hit last week for the initial landfall, too.

[Aric Dunn]

It is getting close to the water. I still would not be surprised to see a relocation of the center just off shore.

[Dean4Storms]

Has every bit the look and feel of a Tropical Depression already. Here at my place I've got fast moving low dark stratus moving from the SW to NE at a fairly good clip with precip moving southwards, it is VERY warm and humid as well. This will pop once over the Gulf!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Has every bit the look and feel of a Tropical Depression already. Here at my place I've got fast moving low dark stratus moving from the SW to NE at a fairly good clip with precip moving southwards, it is VERY warm and humid as well. This will pop once over the Gulf!!!

Hmmm,wonder if they will up the % chance of development in the next TWO...

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at radar I would put the center of the radar circulation just south of Marianna, FL which is roughly 100 miles ENE of Destin, FL

[Dean4Storms]

Has every bit the look and feel of a Tropical Depression already. Here at my place I've got fast moving low dark stratus moving from the SW to NE at a fairly good clip with precip moving southwards, it is VERY warm and humid as well. This will pop once over the Gulf!!!

Hmmm,wonder if they will up the % chance of development in the next TWO...

I would think so ConvergenceZone, I've been through countless TC's from disturbances to Hurricanes and this has all the look and feel of a TD just above the surface maybe at 3000ft. It won't take much convection in and around this center over water for this to reach the surface and tighten IMO!!

[F-dubWxGuy]

It just keeps on raining, just heard my first rumble of thunder of the day. We keep getting mesocyclone signatures on these storms north of me.