ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

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#481 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 15, 2010 2:13 pm

HWRF looks good to me taking this into E.LA at 40kts...
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#482 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 15, 2010 2:15 pm

KWT wrote:HWRF looks good to me taking this into E.LA at 40kts...


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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#483 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 15, 2010 2:49 pm

Here is the graphic with the 12z package of global models and the 18z Tropical ones.

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#484 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 15, 2010 2:55 pm

Agreement isn't quite as solid as it was about 12hrs ago because of some of the models trending a little to the west...

The GFS and its ensembles take this a little further west, lets see if the 18z carries on that trend or not.
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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#485 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:16 pm

NAM 30 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif
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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#486 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:18 pm

Wow,is way offshore.
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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#487 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:20 pm

The NAM as been way S for several runs.

hour 42...

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#488 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:25 pm

If the NAM is right, then shouldn't we see a much deeper system come landfall?
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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#489 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:31 pm

18z NAM 54 hours.

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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#490 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:38 pm

18Z NAM @ 60 hours...nice little warm core noted...

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#491 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:40 pm

well the NAM is well south thats for sure but then again takes a tighter route to the north meaning it gets only a little further west...

It gets a good 36hrs over water though and its far enough away from land to become of real interest, its enough time for the system to ramp up quite abit into landfall...
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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#492 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:47 pm

72H NAM

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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#493 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:51 pm

78H NAM

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#494 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:52 pm

NAM hits central LA but it does get the system alot further south then the rest of the models thats for sure...
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#495 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:54 pm

So according to the NAM, this goes basically stationary from hour 72 to 78? Am I seeing that correctly?
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#496 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:56 pm

Yeah looks like, interesting the GFS does slow the system right down on some of its recent runs but thats occured in the GFS runs a little bit further inland...
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Re: ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

#497 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 15, 2010 3:57 pm

18Z NAM @ hour 84...

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#498 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 15, 2010 4:37 pm

If that is right, some areas are going to be absolutely flooded.
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#499 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 15, 2010 4:42 pm

UKMET 12z loses it a bit but does want to bring some of the southern-heavy system's moisture around to the UT Coast.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html

The moisture feed at raleigh only goes out to 72 hours, but you see what it's getting at:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... tLoop.html
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#500 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 15, 2010 4:49 pm

Oh without a doubt the models are very wet with this system.

GFS slowly moves it a little north of west towards E.LA by 30hrs.
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