Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

KWT, maybe the outflow from wave #1 hampers wave #2 as this 12z run appears to do?

[KWT]

Quite possibly Cycloneye plus the fact it just sets it all up far closer to the system then it has done on previous days.

12z ensembles coming out now, lets see what the mean does...

[cycloneye]

12z CMC develops wave #2.

[JTD]

The 0z ECM only shows weak development and was WAY south of even the 06z GFS...lets see what the other long range models/ensemble suggest...

As much as I hate to say it, the Euro showing only weak development is a STRONG signal that cannot be ignored. Remember how it projected that Colin wasn't going to amount to much and it didn't.

Now with the 12Z GFS showing a weak wave #2 as well, I think, we have to consider it likely that this wave won't amount to much until we get more model support.

I just feel very uncomfortable ignoring the Euro insisting on no development.

[KWT]

Or it could just mean the conditions will allow this one to track west and develop further west and be a proper threat...

FWIW the ECM ensembles do suggest something near the Bahamas in the long run and the GFS ensembles show a clear system as well down there, you don't that unless there will be something there usually.

If the 2nd wave gets to say 45-50W without doing much then maybe be a depression, then the odds of a Caribbean/US hit down the line go up in a massive way...

ps, the 0z ECM DOES have something for the 2nd wave, its just not a strong system, as you'd expect, probably just too far south on the 0z ECM in the 192-240hrs to strengthen much...

[Dydion]

Hi, all. I have this link with various models that can be run...Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields...and I'm wondering if there is such a page for the EURO that we can run like this? Something easy that doesn't require a hundred checkboxes be clicked...

Thanks,

[hurricaneCW]

The Euro didn't really do too much with the 1st wave either, but then each run it was stronger and stronger with it. We could easily see that happen with the 2nd wave.

[cycloneye]

288 hours.

#2 does the same as #1.

[gatorcane]

Yep both go swimming with the fish!

[cycloneye]

So far so good for the Caribbean, Bahamas and East coast of U.S. as no threats by a CV system so far.

Run is completed.

Loop of 18z GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Keep in mind those runs are out beyond 10 days. Confidence is somewhat good that the first one recurves but I have low confidence with the second. Also I wonder if the gfs is making both systems too strong too quickly. Seems the euro is handling intensity better. The euro recurves the first one.

[KWT]

The 18z really digs the upper trough down the W.Atlantic...

IF this remains the pattern, then no CV system will have any shot at all of reaching the US and only a slim risk to the Caribbean...

However the Caribbean always needs to be watched in La Nina seasons...

[cycloneye]

I live in the Caribbean but I can't believe that no TC will threat at all this basin with a Moderate La Nina. I tend to think more Caribbean grown systems would be more common than a long tracker from the east.

[hurricaneCW]

I think we all may have lucked out. The pattern looks more like late September/October than Mid-Late August. I think we'll probably have the all clear and all that hurricane hype was nonsense. It's kind of sad to not even see a storm get to 60W before recurving in a moderate La Nina, I just don't get it.

[UpTheCreek]

I think we all may have lucked out. The pattern looks more like late September/October than Mid-Late August. I think we'll probably have the all clear and all that hurricane hype was nonsense. It's kind of sad to not even see a storm get to 60W before recurving in a moderate La Nina, I just don't get it.

I'm a bit disappointed with this year as well....but have lucked out as well. However, the last decent hurricane that his us here was Isabel in 2003. That storm didn't come off Africa until Sept.1 and didn't make landfall here until Sept. 18.

I realize the clock is ticking away on this season, but it ain't over yet..........IMO, not by a long shot with a La Nina!

[Scorpion]

I was looking forward to this season for so many months, and now its mid August and things are pathetic. I won't ever trust the season predictions again.

[AtlanticWind]

I was looking forward to this season for so many months, and now its mid August and things are pathetic. I won't ever trust the season predictions again.

If you were looking forward to this season you should know that the season is just about to begin. Granted june and july were pretty quiet but it is rare to have lot of activity in those months . Most storms occur in the 2nd half of august to near the end of october.

[hurricaneCW]

Well I'm keeping the faith. A lot of long range models indicate a very active peak season with several large hurricanes. Plus right now we'll likely have a TS in the gulf, and a new Cape Verde storm to track this week. I'm waiting till September 1st. If nothing gets going by then, then the chances of a busy season are really going to go down the drain.

[gatorcane]

Well I'm keeping the faith. A lot of long range models indicate a very active peak season with several large hurricanes. Plus right now we'll likely have a TS in the gulf, and a new Cape Verde storm to track this week. I'm waiting till September 1st. If nothing gets going by then, then the chances of a busy season are really going to go down the drain.

How about October? That month can breed some monster hurricanes especially during neutral and la Nina years.

Of course these systems typically are not threats to the northeast US coastline.

[hurricaneCW]

Maybe early October, but usually the season really dies off by then. Of course, there are a few exceptions, but I have a feeling that most of the season will be over by mid October.