ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Rock, we all have our blind spots. Even Wxman57!

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

The Euro has been too far west with almost every storm this year (if not every one). For now, I discount it.

Yeah thats too bad you feel that way. It should have equal if not more weight than the east bias GFS...but we all have our favorites....

[MiamiHurricanes10]

According to the NWS (graphic is about 10 minutes old), the LLC of ex-05L currently is over Florida, very near Tallahassee.

[Jag95]

Reports of 40-50mph wind gusts around Mobile, AL in some of those heavier TStorms moving southward.

I didn't see much wind in that cluster of thunderstorms that just moved through but I caught up on the rain I've been missing out on in a hurry. Over 2 inches in less than an hour.

[Aquawind]

While the usual wind and rain will be a concern. I hope this keeps people out of the water and the severe weather to a minimum to avoid death. It's these marginal/weaker forecasted systems that let people get stupid.

[brunota2003]

Maybe those winds were associated with a downburst.

[KWT]

I didn't see much wind in that cluster of thunderstorms that just moved through but I caught up on the rain I've been missing out on in a hurry. Over 2 inches in less than an hour.

Its those sorts of rainfall totals that will cause most issues even this did become a TS down the line, 2 inches in less then an hour certainly could lead to some flooding issues.

[shell70]

Not that this system is anything like Elena of 1985 but the computer model paths kind of remind me of it. I remember Elena being the storm that could not make up its mind and skirted the coast in 1985.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-elena-1985

[KatDaddy]

Beautiful outflow across the N and Central GOM this evening. Be glad its not offshore.

[caneman]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

The Euro has been too far west with almost every storm this year (if not every one). For now, I discount it.

Yeah thats too bad you feel that way. It should have equal if not more weight than the east bias GFS...but we all have our favorites....

I'll take wxmn57's blind spot on tropical systems over most people any day, hands down.
Odd that some Texas folks seem to like the (west biased) Euro and east GOM folks the (east biased) GFS I myself prefer a blend. Hopefully the newbies that come here for important info will know to trust the NHC and the blended models.

[LSU2001]

Look at those cold cloud tops over south Mississippi. If that had a circulation under it we would be looking at a pretty strong storm.

[KWT]

Indeed Katdaddy the outflow in the last 24hrs has been real good with this system, conditions in general are pretty good aloft, if this one gets enough real estate it develops IMO...pretty clear cut.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

[nashrobertsx]

is that really bad stuff over south mississipi debris from TD #5. what is causing such syrong convection esepcially this late in the evening. Is that a sea breeze boundary that dropped down from the north. that looks like am impressive blob.

[cyclogenesis]

August 15, 2010
this Sunday evening
636 PM CDT



Gang ~~ I have placed a new, Sunday evening, August 15, 2010, weather writing on to my website, which details the former T.D. #5 depression, and its outlook on Southeast Louisiana. You can find it at this following website link listed below:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[nashrobertsx]

Not that this system is anything like Elena of 1985 but the computer model paths kind of remind me of it. I remember Elena being the storm that could not make up its mind and skirted the coast in 1985.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-elena-1985

I was a news reporter covering Elena and we started in plaqumines parish, next day we jumped to biloxi, next day it was mobile, then it was pensacola..then we were going back west and it landed in biloxo and flagtened some homes, remember elena well!!!

[cwachal]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif]

sorry that is a medium risk not a high risk

[KWT]

What is really worrying is the deep convection is already focused over E.LA and MS which is giving some pretty big rains in the last couple of hours. Could see some totals over the next 48hrs getting towards a foot I reckon...

[caneman]

The only good thing is that it is moving at 10 mph. Lets hope this continues and it doesn't stall or crawl but yeah wow does it look impressive.

[DTWright]

We've been getting it good here for the last couple of hours. Much needed rain.

[perk]

12Z EURO would suggest even more west to mid-Texas coast...if that was the case then it would have plenty of water to get going....I wouldnt discount it WXMN57.....

this whole scenario seems eerily similar to IVAN II....it also hugged the coast a good ways before coming ashore in SWLA....

The Euro has been too far west with almost every storm this year (if not every one). For now, I discount it.

Yeah thats too bad you feel that way. It should have equal if not more weight than the east bias GFS...but we all have our favorites....

Rock i'm really anticipating the NHC's first track on this system. My guess is if the Euro still has Texas in it's sights they will go with the blend of the models and not discount a good performing model.