ATL: EX Tropical Depression FIVE - Models

[Hurricane]

Euro has been accurate with tropical cyclones not far from landfall.

[Dean4Storms]

Based on this radar loop, I would think the llc is progressing through the area of Bay County.
The pressure has been steadily dropping and is currently 29.94in at my house in Panama City.

I think your barometer needs adjusting, all others are generally in the 29.84" to 29.88" range around here locally.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[Steve]

A couple more of the intensity forecasts crept up to minimal TS with the early-cycle 18z guidance (old by now but no one mentioned it):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[srainhoutx]

A couple more of the intensity forecasts crept up to minimal TS with the early-cycle 18z guidance (old by now but no one mentioned it):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Your link Steve...

Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster.

Error 403
euler.atmos.colostate.edu
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora)

[Dean4Storms]

A couple more of the intensity forecasts crept up to minimal TS with the early-cycle 18z guidance (old by now but no one mentioned it):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

I'm getting an access denied 403 error with that link.

[Dean4Storms]

[ROCK]

A couple more of the intensity forecasts crept up to minimal TS with the early-cycle 18z guidance (old by now but no one mentioned it):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Steve you will have to post the pic of these runs. I have made the link mistake many of times with this guys website.....

[wyq614]

Everyone I can access the site, it's AL05's intensity guidance from which we can see that most of the models peak it between 25-35 knots with SHIP and SHF5 show the max intensity at 45 and 60 knots respectively.

All the models except SHIP and SHF5 do not develop the system to TS intensity at all.

[Steve]

Owned by CSU. Hmmmm.....



You can always find that from google by typing "early cycle guidance" and it will bring you to the GFS Ensembles and early and late cycle guidances (of the operational I think), and the current cycle of intensity forecasts.

[Steve]

That was the old one. Here's the link which hopefully isn't forbidden so you can grab it even though some of that stuff isn't in vogue anymore. And here's the 18z early intensity that I said picked up some stragglers into the TS category.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /index.htm

[Steve]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

00Z NAM's rolling in (simulated radar link). Looks messier this time around with most of the strongest precipitation to the low pressure's south in 24 hours (valid 7pm tomorrow).

Edit - getting kind of the look by 30 hours. Looks a little south of last run. Ima go see if anything else is out yet.
Edit 2 - appears to landfall around Lafouche or Terrebonne 54 hours leaving some energy back in the gulf. It is only the nam, but what else can you get this early?

[Dean4Storms]

The only ones I could think of Steve!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NAM 78 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_078l.gif

[Steve]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
So far the NAM was south of the 00z early-cycle Operational runs which follow kind of the original path and complete the circle at +/- St. Bernard/St. Tammany/Hancock Co. It appears (to me) that those runs initialized too far north. Nothing much else out yet but the plots on SFWMD still hone in between SC LA and SW MS.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... tab2200108

[cyclogenesis]

August 15, 2010
this Sunday evening
621 PM CDT



Gang ~~ For those who missed my writing from several hours ago, I had placed a Sunday evening, August 15, 2010, weather writing on to my website, which details the former T.D. #5 depression, and its outlook on Southeast Louisiana. You can find it at this following website link listed below:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/




-- cyclogenesis

[Weatherfreak000]

Idk about you Steve, but I have plans on Frenchmen tuesday night...so I would REALLY much rather see this thing go to my west. I think it may get both farther south and stronger.


You can say all you want about this season. You can't say it hasn't been entertaining

[Steve]

For sure. In this decade, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2008 have been other years where we've gotten rainfall from 3 or more systems. We're up to that already with another visit from AL05 on the doorstep. Part of this year's setup is allowing for closer-in systems from differing origins. Luckily most of these systems have been early enough that the tropics haven't been ripe. Hopefully we aren't seeing a premonition of the next 10-40 days though. You never know.

[hurrican19]

A couple more of the intensity forecasts crept up to minimal TS with the early-cycle 18z guidance (old by now but no one mentioned it):
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Your link Steve...

Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.

If you think this is a server error, please contact the webmaster.

Error 403
euler.atmos.colostate.edu
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora)

Steve,
You can't click on the link, you have to copy/paste the url into your browser for it to show properly.

[Steve]

Yeah sorry. I posted it afterwards from Imageshack.

[brunota2003]

So, if what we are seeing off the coast of Panama City turns out to be the new center and the convection is currently blossoming over it, will this change anything?